informed decisions - Tweed Shire · informed decisions .id . is a company of demographers, housing...

demographers

informed decisions .id is a company of demographers, housing analysts, forecasters

and Census data experts who have developed demographic

information products specifically for the Australian Local

Government market.

.id stands for “informed decisions” and our work is to provide decision makers within

government and the community with readily accessible, easy to use information about the

people living in their communities of interest.

.id’s products give Councils the evidence base to plan housing policy and service delivery,

attract investment and promote their region, support funding submissions and compete for

resources, advocate for the community and work collaboratively.

po box 1689 collingwood victoria 3066 t 03 9417 2205 f 03 9417 2206 e info@id.com.au

understand your working population and local industrial activity

economic profile 5 economy.id

housing policy for sustainable communities

housing capacity and affordability analysis 4 housing.id

Understand your future resident population

population forecast 3 forecast.id

allocate your resources social atlas 2 atlas.id

understand your community

community profile 1 profile.id

Demographic toolkit

demographers

.id briefing 2014 Today we will be presenting a demographic briefing for Tweed Council to

improve awareness of how .id’s information tools can be used at a strategic,

council-wide level.

This briefing will focus on the trends within the Local Government Area.

We will look at some key national and NSW trends, as well as focussing in on

your local area, and showing how .id’s tools can tell the demographic story of

your area.

Finally we will look at some of the key issues for the area which are raised by

the latest population forecast update.

What this briefing covers

National & State Trends

Trends in Tweed

Population Forecast

Accessing the data

5

Macro Trends

6

Macro Trends

“The official population of the Australia as of the 30th June 2013, is 23,135,281.” The Estimated Resident Population (ERP) is the OFFICIAL Australia population for 2013.

7

Macro Trends

Historical migration - national

Age structure of migrants 2006-2011,

compared to Population, NSW, 2011 Census

Source: 2011 Census of Population and Housing, ABS

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Recent arrivals (2006-2011)

Total population

National fertility rate, 1930 to 2010

Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2010 (3301.0) – annotations by .id

National fertility rate by age of mother,

1975 - 2011

Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2011 (3301.0)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

1975

2011

12

Population growth by age Australia, 2001-2011

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics 2013

13

Forecast comparison growth by age Australia 2011-2031

Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101; .id SAFi

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Pers

ons

Age group

.id SAFi.id SAFi

Comparative growth among the

states - relative

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

State % growth 2011 5 year growth %

Comparative growth among the

states - absolute

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Absolute growth 2006-2011

SLA Population growth, NSW,

2006-2011 ERP

Population Land area Population density

Statistics 90, 114 130,918 0.69 ABS ERP 2013 hectares (4,236 Km2) persons per hectare

Patterns of Change in Tweed

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Overseas Born

Tweed Shire 2011 2006 Change

Birthplace Number % Regional

NSW % Number % Regional

NSW % 2006 to

2011

Total Overseas born

12,783 15.0 10.8 11,285 14.2 10.3 +1,498

• Non-English speaking

backgrounds

3,883 4.6 5.2 3,276 4.1 4.9 +607

• Main English speaking

countries

8,900 10.5 5.6 8,009 10.1 5.4 +891

Australia

67,470 79.3 83.8 62,563 78.9 83.7 +4,907

Not Stated

4,852 5.7 5.4 5,476 6.9 6.0 -624

Total Population 85,105 100.0 100.0 79,324 100.0 100.0 +5,781

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011. Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.

Population Change since 1991

Population Change since 2006

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

- Age

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

- Age

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

- families

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– dwelling type

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

- education

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Industry of Residents

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

- income

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– where do residents work

Employment location of residents

Tweed Shire 2011

Status Number %

Live and work in the area

18,502 56.6

Live and work in the same SLA

14,794 45.3

Live in the area and work in different SLA

3,708 11.4

Live in the area, but work outside

8,760 26.8

Work location unknown

5,403 16.5

Total employed residents

32,665 100.0

Headline Economic Statistics

Indicator Source

Gross Regional Product NIEIR 2013 $2.82 billion

Local Jobs NIEIR 2013

29,442

Largest Industry Census 2011 Health Care & Social Assistance

Local Businesses Business Register 2013

6,646

Employed Residents NIEIR 2013

36,685

Agricultural Production ABS 2011

$57.81 million

Tourism Value - add NIEIR 2013 $168.6 million

Quarterly unemployment rate

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Local Industry Employment (FTE)

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Local Industry Employment (FTE)

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Output

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– output by destination

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id, the population experts.

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– International Exports

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Workforce Age Structure

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– Hours worked

What are the characteristics of Tweed?

– GRP (stable)

Population Forecasts

Suburb Life Cycle

Population Forecast Modelling

Value of total building approvals

Residential Building approvals

What are the trends in Tweed? –

moved house n the last 5 years

What are the trends in Tweed? – Net

Gain

Top 10 LGAs ranked by net gain to the area

Tweed council area

LGA In migration Out

migration Net migration

Gold Coast (C) 3,584 3,112 +472

Byron (A) 617 240 +377

Sutherland Shire (A) 222 51 +171

Warringah (A) 156 25 +131

Ballina (A) 221 123 +98

Logan (C) 337 242 +95

Randwick (C) 128 46 +82

Canada Bay (A) 85 4 +81

Pittwater (A) 98 22 +76

Lismore (C) 217 142 +75

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (Usual Residence Data). Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.

What are the trends in Tweed? – Net

Loss

Top 10 LGAs ranked by net loss to the area

Tweed council area

LGA In migration Out

migration Net migration

Clarence Valley (A) 125 246 -121

Bundaberg (R) 57 103 -46

No usual address (Qld) 6 43 -37

Fraser Coast (R) 82 118 -36

Scenic Rim (R) 59 92 -33

Kalgoorlie/Boulder (C) 0 27 -27

Banyule (C) 3 29 -26

Southern Downs (R) 40 64 -24

Bass Coast (S) 12 34 -22

Cairns (R) 76 98 -22

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (Usual Residence Data). Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population

What are the characteristics in Tweed?

- Migration

What are the forecasted trends in

Tweed?

Population year 2036 125,953

Change 2014-36 40.51%

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.

What are the forecasted trends in

Tweed?

Forecast residential development, 2011 to 2036

Tweed Shire Change in dwellings between 2011 and

2036

Area number %

Tweed Shire +16,455 +40.7

Bilambil - Bilambil Heights +1,410 +93.8

Cabarita area +124 +8

Cobaki - Piggabeen area +4,275 +2300.4

Mid Coast - Casuarina +3,232 +250

Murwillumbah & District +898 +21.4

North Coast - Kingscliff +792 +17.9

North East Hinterland - Tumbulgum +50 +4.2

North West Tweed - Tyalgum +82 +6.6

South Coast - Pottsville +1,533 +47.5

South East Hinterland - Burringbar +274 +20.8

South West Tweed - Uki +83 +7.9

Terranora +1,545 +160.6

Tweed Heads +922 +20.7

Tweed Heads South - Banora Point +1,093 +10.0

Tweed Heads West +142 +4.8

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.

What are the forecasted trends in

Tweed?

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.

What are the forecasted trends in

Tweed?

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, July 2014.

What are the forecasted trends in

Tweed?

Target your policy and services?

Target your policy and services?

Target your policy and services?

Tweed Sites

Tools available

Online now:

Access all your .id sites from the new landing

page at

www.id.com.au/tweed profile.id® – understand your communities

atlas.id® - target your services

forecast.id® - target your services

economy.id® - understand your workforce

Tools available

Online now:

http://demographic-indicators.id.com.au

http://economic-indicators.id.com.au/

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