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Beginning a Research Project
An overview paper Helps me organize what is known
in the area—more detail than a standard literature review.
Pinpoint where further research is needed.
Types of Retirees
Amenity
Assistance
Aging in Place
Upper and middle (some lower) income, newly retired, healthy, married
Middle and lower income, older, poor health, widowed
Middle and lower income, all ages, mix of health and marital statuses
Retirement Communities
Resource amenity
Planned
Seasonal
Old home town
Regional center
Continuing care
Definitions We defined a retirement community as
having a net in-migration of retirees.
We used a sub-county definition.
This definition does not include communities with a high percentage of retirees who age in place.
Retirement Communities
Resource amenity
Planned
Seasonal
Natural or man-made amenity
Natural and social amenity, planned
Natural amenity—climate
Retirement Communities, cont.
Old home town
Regional center
Continuing care
Social ties & living assistance
Social ties & living assistance, man-made amenities
Living assistance & medical care
Typology
Show how the same community had different names
Provide an exhaustive list of types of retirement communities
Show the type(s) of retirees attracted to each community
Uses to communities
Allow community to assess their potential to attract retirees, the type of retiree they might attract and the type of recruiting needed.
Existing retirement centers to assess whether retain their attractive features.
Analyze their future prospects, both positive and negative.
Future IssuesResource amenity
Planned
Seasonal
Old home town
Regional center
Continuing care
Growth management, loss of amenity
Growth management, infrastructure quality
Seasonal demands and congestion
Development of critical mass
Development of critical mass
Financial solvency
Potential demographic impacts
Depression Boomers Bust
Amenity
Planned
Seasonal
Old home
Regional
Continuing care
Predicted demographic impacts
Depression
1990-2010
Boomers2010-30
Bust
2030 +
Amenity -- + --
Planned -- + --
Seasonal -- + --
Old home 0 + M-- /S+
Regional -- + M-- /S+
Continuing care + + +
Predicted impacts
Soc. Sec . & Pensions
Assets & Housing
Living Preference
Amenity -- -- --
Planned -- -- R-- / U+
Seasonal -- -- 0
Old home 0 0 --
Regional -- 0 0
Continuing care -- -- 0
Quasi-experimental design to
Compare impacts of wealthier and poorer retirees
Compare impacts as retirees age
Estimate both economic and fiscal impacts
Five groups of retirees All persons 65 and older: assumes
homogeneity of elderly (the comparison group) 65-75: young, healthy, active, married; 76 and older: aging, poor health, more likely
widowed elderly--assistance seekers; Income below $20,000: low-income elderly,
those who who age in-place; Income over $50,000: retirees most likely to
migrate from an urban to a rural area--amenity seekers.
Findings
All groups generate positive economic impacts
Some of the new jobs go to the elderly Lower population impacts than previous
studies Retail impacts differ All groups had positive fiscal impacts, but
there were differences
Per capita retail sales impacts
High-income: increase per capita retail sales most.
Low-income: increase retail sales per capita only in the apparel sector; high-income: decrease apparel sales.
Over 75: increase per capita retail sales only in apparel and drug stores.
Both high-income and young retirees: increase per capita retail sales in the
building supply sector.
Fiscal impacts are positive
Elderly present few new demands on most local expenditure categories.
Younger retirees tend to have lower per capita government costs than do older. Aging affects the mix of demand for public goods.
Fiscal impacts issues
Accounting stance is important. The results would not be the same for state or federal governments, which bear different costs, such as health care.
The elderly may also affect public budgets by lobbying local officials.
Declining numbers of elderly
Net migration of retirees is now rural to urban.
Years of rural out-migration by young, mean currently a very small cohort of new retirees in rural areas.
When very elderly die, the cohort of new retirees (natural and migrant) is not large enough to replace those who die.
But if we have declining numbers of retirees in rural areas, this has implications, not just for the retirement communities, but for the entire rural economy.
Because of the high percentage of retirees in rural areas (even if they are not a retirement community), retirees have provided a stable economic base for the community.
Extension: Retirement communities
Determine what type of retirement community they are, or if they have potential.
Demographics and implications for growth (or decline) over different time periods
Anticipate issues if they continue to grow, or decline, including demands that retirees make on both public sector and private.
Extension: Rural communities
Communities that are not “retirement” communities, but that for years have had a stable to increasing percentage of elderly who were a “base” in the community.
These are most likely the counties that have a decline in the absolute number of the elderly.
Extension: Rural communities
Their demand for housing–most retirees live in their own homes--maintained property values in communities and local tax rolls.
The retiree population increases demand for certain services, for example medical, which non-retirees also use.
Extension: State
Impact on the state of declining numbers of rural retirees.
State-response to declining retirees in rural areas?
State response to recruitment activities of communities. Does it want to encourage or restrain communities because of costs to the state?
Research agenda
Characteristics of counties with declining numbers of elderly versus stable, or increasing.
Impacts on communities (multipliers work in reverse) if the number of retirees declines?
State versus local economic and fiscal impacts.
State and local policy on attracting retirees and on adjustments to declining numbers of retirees.
Recommended