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5/11/2016
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'In the Name of Allah, The
Compassionate, The Merciful’
Flood water conservation
underground
- Case Study:
-Indus Basin (Pakistan)
to improve water quality & quantity
Rotterdam, May 11, 2016
Prof. Dr. Amir Haider Malik (Advisor)
Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD)
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT),
Park Road, Chak Shahzad, Islamabad, Pakistan
Cell: 0092 - 300 - 58 11 639
E-Mail: ahmalik@comsats.edu.pk
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Contents of my lecture:
Major water challenges of Pakistan
(A): Water quantity aspects
(B): Water quality aspects
What to do?
How to do?
Justification of the Idea
Way forward
Conclusion
Acknowledgement
Major water challenges
of
Pakistan
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1. Main water
quantity aspects
Total river (surface) water
production in Million Acre Feet
(MAF)
Use Percentage
(%)
75 is being used for agriculture, 52 35 is being mis-managed , especially in
agr. Sector 24
10 Required to be drained per annum
into the sea. 7
25 But, about 25 MAF (about 2 Mangla
& 2 Tarbela capacity) fresh water is
being drained into the sea annually.
17
145 * 100
Availability of surplus fresh water/annum to be stored :
According to Ahmad, (2000), Pakistan has the largest canal irrigation system
in the world having 145 million acre feet (maf) annual average of water,
out of this quantity:
Mangla Dam became the country’s biggest reservoir when water storage in its lake rose to 6.65 million acre feet,
surpassing 6.58MAF, the maximum live storage capacity of Tarbela Dam, total about 13 MAF of both reservoirs.
* According to MALIK (2011), It was about 168.3 MAF before 1947.
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CIIT
Case Study of the Floods of 2010
(Flood damages in Pakistan from 1950 – 2011)
Year` Fatalities People affected
1950 2,190 10,000
1956 160 11,609
1957 83 4,498
1973 474 9,719
1976 425 18,390
1978 393 9,199
1988 508 1,000
1992 1,008 13,208
1995 591 6,85
2001 219 50
2003 484 4,376
2004 85 47
2005 59 1,931
2007 918 2 million+
2010 1,781+ 20 million
2011 434 8.9 million
CIIT
2010 FLOODS 2010 FLOODS, 78 districts were affected
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Water Availability
per head per annum in Pakistan
10
Total Water Storage Capacity/Annum for Pakistan, (caparison with other countries)
There is about 900 days of water storage capacity on the
Colorado and Murray-Darling rivers, but there is only about 30
days of storage capacity in the Pakistan.
Therefore major investments are urgently
needed to store more water, in both surface
water and groundwater. GW Storage is also
important to secure water from evaporation
losses, especially in the Southern Arid & Semi
Arid Parts of Pakistan.
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2.4 %
Due to increase of
population,
agriculture sector
will be the looser in
future for water that
is why there will also
be less GWR due to
less availability of
water for Agr Sector.
95 %
2.6 %
12
GROWING ROLE OF GROUNWATER IN IRRIGATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN
The groundwater annual abstraction in Pakistan has increased
from about 4 MAF in 1959
to about 50 MAF in 1996-1999 .
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Status of Groundwater Depletion/Over-mining in Pakistan:
The groundwater recharge in Pakistan is estimated to be
about 68 BCM (55 MAF).
Groundwater now accounts for almost half of all irrigation requirements, but
there is clear evidence that groundwater is being over-exploited, yet tens of
thousands of additional new wells are being planned to be insalled every
year (World Bank Report, 2005).
Status of Groundwater Depletion/Over-mining & related
energy consumption involved:
Overmining of groundwater:
Water table is going down/over-mined
in about 26 canal commands
out of total about 45 canal command areas (of the Indus
System).
Increase of Cost for GW exploitation:
(1). The cost of installing tubewell in areas where water-
table depth is more than 24 meters is 7 times higher as
compared to
those areas where water-table depth is around 6
meters.
(2). Same is true with the increase of energy
consumption for GW exploitation.
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15
SURFACE WATER STORAGE LOSSES IN
EXISTING RESERVOIRS, DUE TO
SILTATION/SEDIMENTATION.
Dam
Designed
Live
Storage
(MAF)
Existing
Live
Storage
(MAF)
Percenta
ge Loss
Tarbela 9.7 7.2 -26%
Mangla 5.3 / 4.75 4.5 -15%
Chashma 0.9 0.4 -55%
Total 15.9 12.1 -25%
There will be increased frequency
of weather extremes.
Storms
Floods
Droughts
There will be higher crop water demand
due to increase of temperatures
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The Indus:
One of the riverflow
model suggests that the
runoff of the Indus will
decrease by the year
2050 by about 27%.
National & International Water Conflicts:
1) National Level (Kalabagh Dam, there is need
of consensus among all the provinces)
2) International Level (Indus Water Treaty) with
India (1960).
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2. Water quality aspects
Urban Water Quality
(anthropogenic influences):
Since all major cities in Pakistan depend on
groundwater as their source of raw water, but this
poses a serious and rapidly growing problem for the
cities.
In many cities, local aquifers are being:
•Over-pumped and are
•contaminated.
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Urban Water Quality
(anthropogenic influences):
Consider the case of Lahore, for example, which
has more than 300 tube-wells installed.
Over the past few years, water quality
has become a serious issue as there is
no proper sewage treatment facility available.
Geo-genic influences
Arsenic (& Fluoride) Water Contamination in Punjab
Following figure show the levels of arsenic, relative to the
WHO guideline, in parts per billion (ppb).
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Water Quality Aspects
(Increase of Salinity in the Indus Basin):
The advent of large-scale irrigation had dramatic
implications for the increase of salinity,
about 15 million tonnes of salt (or about 1 tonne of
salt per hectare per year of irrigated land) is being
stored/retained in the Indus Basin.
One of the reason is:
Drainage of about 25 MAF/annum of fresh water in
form of floods into the sea.
Geo-genic influences
There are substantial areas, especially in the lower
part of the Indus delta, where groundwater is
naturally saline (fig. 3.32). Again, one of the
reason is: Drainage of about 25 MAF/annum of
fresh water into the sea.
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What to do? With the Blessing of Almighty Allah…., one of the Feasible
Sustainable Solution is the
“Flood water conservation underground
- Case Study:
-Indus Basin (Pakistan)
to improve water quality & quantity”:
• Not only to release ONLY Safer Flood Water, but also
• To have more water in the droughty periods,
• To have also improved good water quality & quantity.
Methodology to be adopted:
To define SAFER FLOOD peaks at different barrages
• Selection of Flood Water Diversion Canal sites with the help
of GIS/RS, topography/morphology/soil strata, geology for
diversion of water through gravity for maximum Groundwater
Water Recharge (GWR).
• On the basis of present & past surface water data, modeling
should be done to divert water optimally, from:
Flood Water River to Flood Water accomodating River.
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How to Do?
To divert surplus flood
water mainly through
Gravity Flow GWR
Diversion Canals.
To release only:
• safer floods in the down
stream,
• to reduce damage of lives
& material &
• To save more water for
the coming droughts.
Indus
Water
Treaty
(IWT)
25 MAF/annum flood water should
be accommodated to:
• Store water underground &
• To dilute the increasing silinity of
the Indus Water System.
Main Flood Rivers are Indus & Chenab :
About 50-70% of total surface water flows in three to
four monsoon months.
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Seasonal Surface Water (& Precipitation)
challenges: Floods (& droughts), 50-70% of total
surface water flows in two to three monsoon months.
To a substantial degree the main
function of the
canal systems has
been to recharge
the groundwater—
about 80 percent of
g r o u n d w a t e r
abstractions in
Punjab come from
recharge from
canals
The survival of the water economy over
the last several decades has largely been despite
rather than because of the state—it has been the
tapping of the unmanaged groundwater by
millions of farmers, by towns and villages and
industries that have pulled the economy through.
It is clear that this era of ‘productive anarchy’ is
now coming to an end, since groundwater is now
being over-tapped in many areas (including both
the Indus Basin and Balochistan and other nonIndus
areas). This poses two major challenges to
the state. First, surface water supply systems are
going to resume their previous high importance,
and need to be managed much more accountably
and effectively. Second, groundwater will have to
be managed—for related reasons of quantity and
quality—much more aggressively than has been
the case in the past.
In 1960, groundwater accounted for only 8
percent of the farm gate water supplies in Punjab.
Twenty-five years later this figure was 40 percent,
and at present groundwater use for agriculture
accounts for more than 60 percent of the water at
the farm gate in Punjab.
34 It is estimated that 75
percent of the increase in water supplies in the
last twenty-five years is due to groundwater
exploitation.
In Punjab, for example, 80 percent of the
groundwater recharge is from the canal system.
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To a substantial degree the main
function of the
canal systems has
been to recharge
the groundwater—
about 80 percent of
g r o u n d w a t e r
abstractions in
Punjab come from
recharge from
canals
The survival of the water economy over
the last several decades has largely been despite
rather than because of the state—it has been the
tapping of the unmanaged groundwater by
millions of farmers, by towns and villages and
industries that have pulled the economy through.
It is clear that this era of ‘productive anarchy’ is
now coming to an end, since groundwater is now
being over-tapped in many areas (including both
the Indus Basin and Balochistan and other nonIndus
areas). This poses two major challenges to
the state. First, surface water supply systems are
going to resume their previous high importance,
and need to be managed much more accountably
and effectively. Second, groundwater will have to
be managed—for related reasons of quantity and
quality—much more aggressively than has been
the case in the past.
In 1960, groundwater accounted for only 8
percent of the farm gate water supplies in Punjab.
Twenty-five years later this figure was 40 percent,
and at present groundwater use for agriculture
accounts for more than 60 percent of the water at
the farm gate in Punjab.
34 It is estimated that 75
percent of the increase in water supplies in the
last twenty-five years is due to groundwater
exploitation.
In Punjab, for example, 80 percent of the
groundwater recharge is from the canal system.
Justification of the flood
water diversion project
for groundwater
recharge.
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TOPOGRAPHY: Source: Shahid M. Zia and Tahir Hasnain, (2000):
According to Abbas, Hassan 2012, SAND DAMS, which are being
constructed elsewhere with huge
technical &
cost involvement are available by Nature in the Indus Basin, especially in the
Rachna, Thal and Bari Doabs, all offering excellent aquifers which could be
exploited:
•offering a potential storage capacity of
•hundreds of times more than that of
•Tarbela,
•Mangla and
•Kalabagh
combined.
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Sedimentary Indus Basin/Sand Dams:
Hydro-geology:
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I am NOT inventing the WHEEL once gain!
We can Utilise already existing Pakistani experience too:
According to PCRW Report, as a result of the Indus Water Treaty
(IWT), Pakistan completed successfully a gigantic project of Indus
Basin Replacement Works (IBRW).
It was the biggest irrigation project (cost of Pak Rs. 124 billion) of
the world at that time, which was completed with in only
Ten years, and by which 17 BCM/year
(about 13.75 MAF/annum) of:
• water was transferred from western to eastern rivers.
We can also learn from other side of our easter borders in India:
Rajasthan/Indira Ghandi canal was built to accomodate about 7.6
MAF/annum water coming from the rivers Sutluj & Beas (Maitra, M., 1987),
bring PROSPERITY & DEVELOPMENT there as compared to our
about 25 MAF/annum, we drain/annum into sea.
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Confirmation of about 10 to 20 m capacity for GWR in the
Indus Basin Sediments, to save Water underground,
even to secure water from evaporation losses, especially
in the Southern arid & semi arid parts of Pakistan.
Water Table Development History of Punjab (Indus Basin)
Projected Demand for Water
(Pakistan to face about 31% water shortage by 2025, water availability in 2025 would stand at around 120 million acre
feet compared to the need of about 140 MAF)
Source: Hasan et al, 2005.
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Case Study from India (Flood Water Diversion Canal): On
average, the water table has risen from 12 m to 6.5 m in Uttar
Pradesh due to Diversion of Monsoonal Flood Water through
the Madhya Canal (Sakthivadivel & Chawla IWMI).
After the construction of flood water diversion canal unlined
system in India also refills the aquifers, enabling farmers to use
recharged groundwater to irrigate a second crop.
The cost of pumping ground- water at the actual 1999 water table
depth, 6.5m, is Rs. 2,650 per ha.m—a savings of Rs. 2,000/ha.m
for farmers.
Average net income increased about 26 (%) percent.
Paddy area has increased from 2 to 15 percent in the area
and sugar- cane from 13 to 15 percent.
(Sakthivadivel & Chawla IWMI).
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According to Tushaar Shah in his article “Climatic Change and
Groundwater: India’s Opportunities for Mitigation and Adaptation”
<http://publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H042693.pdf>
India needs to make a transition from
•surface storages (due to siltation, displacement of people,
non availability of consensus among the provinces, etc)
to
* “managed aquifer storage”
as the main focus of its water strategy.
In doing this, Pakistan needs also to learn intelligently from the
experience of countries like, Australia and the USA.
Damages caused by significant floods worldwide from 1900-2014 (in billion U.S. Dallars)
Source: International Desaster Database, CRED, July,2014.
Losses of about 9.5 Billion US Dollars can be saved annually.
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Water Quality Aspects:
Comparison of Salinity in
four Provinces
There will be sure
Improvement of geo-genic &
anthropogenic
contamination of the aquifer,
for agr & for drinking
purposes, even for the
whole Karachi, etc.
If Implemented, Outcome of
the project:
Through Bank Filtration
process along the canal
banks, drinking water of
good quality can be
provided to every Pakistani
including surplus water for
Karachi, etc., through
gravity flow.
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If Implemented, Outcome of the project:
• About
•two Mangla &
•two Tarbela
•Dams water capacity (about 25 MAF) can be added annually to
the total SW & GW system of the Indus Basin.
•Wastage of water means also wastage of Energy (take the
example of Renala Khurd Hydropower Plant in Okara District, at
Lower Bari Doab Canal, still producing 1.1 (MW) since 1925, it
was Pakistan's first hydropower project.)
If Implemented, Outcome of the project:
Flood disaster reduction (Infrastructure, crops, human & animals,
etc.)
• More drinking water, more employment, less community
migration from rural to urban areas, reduction of poverty & more
production of food & fish, to go for more food export.
•More facilities to transport goods, etc., through new canal water
ways navigation).
• One can also develop cities & town along the diversion canals, If
more water is available to reduce burden on existing over-
burdened urban areas.
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If Implemented, outcome of the project:
It is an optimal option to store more flood water in
aquifers especially for the coming droughts.
•To stabilize or raise groundwater levels, reduction of
well construction costs & well running energy costs.
•Reduction of water losses through evaporation.
•To hinder storm runoff and soil erosion.
•Maintain environmental/base flow in streams/rivers,
even in the dry period.
•To reduce sea water intrusion along the coastal areas.
•
Acknowledgement: Aspecially, Foreign input: * Prof. Dr Franz Nestmann (Hydrologist), KIT, Germany. * Dr. Fred F. Hattermann (Hydrologist), Hydrological Modelling, & Prof Dr Juergen Kropp, both from PIK, Potsdam, Germany. * DAAD for the funding of one of my travel to Germany.
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•
Way forward: * Ministry of Water & Power/WAPDA should be convinced to implement this project to improve the quality & quantity of water. * In collaboration with foreign exerts especially from Germany involved, FEASIBILITY STUDY should be under-taked to go for the implementation of the said project to secure water quality & quantity of the Indus Basin.
THANK YOU
/
Shukria! Prof. Dr. Amir Haider Malik ahmalik@comsats.edu.pk, CCRD, COMSATS
Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad
Photo:With two of the DAAD funded project CIIT scholars at
Besham Qila, Indus River.
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