Importance of the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) in...

Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Importance of the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) in

Developing the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)

Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board

January 14, 2015

Michael Sprung

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Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)

• A database of regional freight flows by tons and value for all modes, annual provisional updates, and long-range forecasts

• An assignment of the average number of freight-hauling trucks to individual highway segments on the national network

Distance Band (miles) Percent Cumulative

Percent Percent Cumulative Percent Percent Cumulative

PercentBelow 100 40 40 51 51 7 7100 - 249 16 56 19 71 10 17250 - 499 13 69 11 82 13 29500 - 749 7 76 5 87 9 39750 - 999 6 82 4 90 10 49

1,000 - 1,499 7 89 6 96 22 711,500 - 2,000 4 93 2 98 14 85Over 2,000 7 100 2 100 15 100

Value Weight Ton-Miles

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FAF Databases

Origin-Destination Database• Tons & value • Origin/destination• All modes• Commodity detail• Access with data software or

create subsets using the online data extraction tool

Network Database• Payloads (trucks) on highway

segments• No origin/destination• Truck only• No commodity detail• Access with GIS software

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FAF Origin-Destination Database Details

• Value & weight for all domestic, export, & import shipments

• 8 modes (truck, rail, water, air, multiple modes & mail, pipeline, other & unknown, and no domestic mode)

• 43 Commodity classes (2-digit SCTG codes)

• 123 Domestic regions

• 8 International regions

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FAF Regions

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Major FAF O-D Data Sources

• Commodity Flow Survey (BTS/Census)• TransBorder Freight Data (BTS)• U.S. Merchandise Trade Statistics (Census)• Waterborne Commerce Statistics (USACE)• T-100 Air Traffic Data (BTS)• Census of Agriculture (USDA)• Crude Oil and Natural Gas Annual Data (EIA)• Industry Input-Output Accounts (BEA)• County Business Patterns Data (Census)

Census Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data:

multimodal domestic shipper based

Multimodal flows of: • Crude petroleum• Natural gas• Petroleum products

Flows associated with industrial sectors of:• Farm-based• Fisheries• Logging• Construction• Retail• Services• Municipal solid waste• Household/business

moves

International flows:• Transborder (all modes)• Deep sea shipping • Air freight

Flow matrix construction & missing flow value

estimation techniques

Multimodal domestic commodity flows with value and weight

Multimodal foreign & domestic commodity flows with value and weight

CFS in-scope flows

CFS out-of-scope flows

FAF Origin-Destination-

Commodity-Mode (ODCM) freight

flow matrix with tons & values

Developing CFS In-Scope FAF Estimates

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- USACE Waterborne Commerce Data- STB Public Use Railcar Waybill Data- Prior years CFS Data

Current year CFS Data

Current year CFS establishment sample counts

Log-linear Modeling

Iterative Proportional

Fitting

Base year FAF ODCM matrix of

freight flows (tons and dollars)

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CFS Share of FAF by Mode

Weight2007 Tons (thousands) CFS Share

Mode of Transportation CFS FAF of FAFTotal, All Modes 12,543,425 18,878,735 66%Truck 8,778,713 13,335,623 66%Rail 1,861,307 2,024,073 92%Water 403,639 654,950 62%Air (including truck and air) 3,611 4,988 72%Pipeline 650,859 1,659,060 39%Multiple modes 573,729 582,861 98%Other and unknown modes 271,567 617,181 44%

Value2007 Value (million $) CFS Share

Mode of Transportation CFS FAF of FAFTotal, All Modes 11,684,872 16,650,594 70%Truck 8,335,789 12,192,831 68%Rail 436,420 573,978 76%Water 114,905 212,000 54%Air (including truck and air) 252,276 357,019 71%Pipeline 399,646 787,458 51%Multiple modes 1,866,723 1,924,679 97%Other and unknown modes 279,113 602,630 46%

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CFS Share of FAF Tonnage by Commodity2007 Tons (thousands) CFS Share

Commodity CFS FAF of FAFTotal, All Commodities 12,543,425 18,878,735 66%Animals and fish 6,150 106,851 6%Cereal grains 514,151 1,475,408 35%Agricultural products 211,890 436,348 49%Animal feed and other products of animal origin 246,436 270,333 91%Meat and preparations 98,413 116,145 85%Milled grain and bakery products 120,023 136,903 88%Other prepared foodstuffs 468,435 539,309 87%Alcoholic beverages and denatured alcohol 114,012 140,872 81%Tobacco products 3,289 4,624 71%Monumental or building stone 28,738 57,469 50%Natural sands 460,085 569,898 81%Gravel and crushed stone 2,039,457 2,263,771 90%Other non-metallic minerals 272,264 375,185 73%Metallic ores and concentrates 76,672 120,451 64%Coal 1,416,187 1,444,753 98%Crude petroleum NA 836,581 0%Gasoline, aviation turbine fuel, and ethanol 959,161 1,005,614 95%Fuel oils 641,894 744,791 86%Other coal and petroleum products 578,188 1,295,016 45%Basic chemicals 412,581 463,156 89%Pharmaceutical products 19,076 20,912 91%Fertilizers 149,600 230,038 65%Other chemical products and preparations 123,537 148,078 83%

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CFS Share of FAF by Commoditycontinued

2007 Tons (thousands) CFS Share

Commodity CFS FAF of FAFPlastics and rubber 186,392 224,336 83%Logs and other wood in the rough 107,869 517,410 21%Wood products 323,773 416,536 78%Pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard 145,380 162,616 89%Paper or paperboard articles 82,233 105,157 78%Printed products 51,435 55,453 93%Articles of textiles or leather 46,728 70,178 67%Non-metallic mineral products 1,156,790 1,392,666 83%Base metal in primary or semi-finished forms 364,940 422,247 86%Articles of base metal 131,924 205,439 64%Machinery 66,728 185,914 36%Electronic and other electrical equipment 47,528 78,108 61%Motorized and other vehicles 133,126 190,635 70%Transportation equipment 6,815 8,361 82%Precision instruments and apparatus 5,668 7,440 76%Furniture, mattresses, and lighting 26,633 50,046 53%Miscellaneous manufactured products 91,844 111,720 82%Waste and scrap 305,878 1,324,523 23%Mixed freight 300,922 342,411 88%Unknown 583 205,034 0.3%

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Moving Forward

BTS• 2012 benchmark O-D data by commodity and mode• Annual provisional updates

FHWA• Long range forecasts of O-D • Network assignment of truck flows

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Future Issues

• Integrating CFS microdata

• Improving methods for annual updates

• Greater geographic detail

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Upcoming Releases

• 2013 annual provisional update (based on FAF3) – March 2015

• CFS Microdata file – June 2015

• FAF4 O-D data benchmarked to 2012 CFS – Fall 2015

• Long-range forecasts through 2045, network assignment, and highway flow maps – early 2016

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Thank You

For additional information on BTS programs and products visit: www.bts.gov

For additional information on USDOT freight data programs and products visit: www.freight.dot.gov

Without Data

It’s Just An Opinion.

Michael Sprungmichael.sprung@dot.gov(202) 366-9047