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Relationship of interest rate and stock return has been widely examined by researchers. The interest rates indirectly affect the valuation of the stock prices and also its volatility directly creates a shift between the money market and capital market instruments. Interest rate volatility influences the valuation of the stocks by affecting the basic values of the firm, such as net interest margin, sales and etc. An increase in interest rates negatively affects the value of assets by increasing the required rate of return. Furthermore, high interest rates induce the investors to keep their money deposited in saving bank accounts to get high interest rather to put it into risky stock market. So with the increase in interest rate stock prices decline. As the risk free returns come down, investors switch their money from bank accounts to stock market investments. Consequently, demand of stocks increases and the stock markets go up as a result of interest rate cut.
Citation preview
- 1 -
Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi.
University Institute of Management Sciences (UIMS).
Research ProjectResearch Project
(MGT – 799)(MGT – 799)
Research On:
Impact of Interest Rate on Karachi Stock ExchangeImpact of Interest Rate on Karachi Stock Exchange
Submitted In Respect Of:
Sir, Ahmed RazaSir, Ahmed Raza
Submitted By:
Aamish Hameed KhanAamish Hameed Khan (07-Arid-406)(07-Arid-406)
Shahid MehmoodShahid Mehmood (07-Arid-445)(07-Arid-445)
Omer Javed Omer Javed (07-Arid-454)(07-Arid-454)
M. ShoaibM. Shoaib (07-Arid-451)(07-Arid-451)
MBA-4MBA-4thth
(Finance) (Finance) Section “A” Section “A”
- 2 -
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SEARILSEARIL NO.NO.
DESCRIPTIONDESCRIPTION PAGE NO.PAGE NO.
1. Definition 05
2. Introduction 05
3. Literature Review 07
4. Data & Methodology 12
5. Hypothesis 14
6. Findings 14
7. Appendix 1 15
8. Appendix 2 18
9. Appendix 3 22
10. Bibliography 26
- 3 -
DEDICATION
We dedicate this research project to our
Respected parents and teachers whose
Prayers enable us to perform every task efficiently.
- 4 -
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
By the grace of God and the most efforts of our group, we are able to accomplish our
research project well in time. At this moment we must pay special thanks to our
guiders for their cooperation and guidance that made us accomplish our Project. Also
we are grateful to Sir. Ahmed Raza, our supervisor, who showed a keen interest and
cooperated whole-heartedly through out the entire course of activities.
- 5 -
DEFINITIONS
“Interest is a fee, paid on borrowed capital” and “the percentage of the principal that is paid as a fee (the interest), over a certain period of time, is called the interest rate.”
“Stock exchange is a market in which stocks and shares of listed companies are bought and sold.”
INTRODUCTION
Stock returns and their volatility has been hot issue for research since very
long but still research for the factors affecting stock returns and their volatility is
continued. There are numerous macro-economic factors that affect stock returns and
their volatility. These factors include growth rate of industrial production index,
change in consumer price index, growth rate of narrowly defined money supply,
change in exchange rate, interest rate, growth rate of international crude oil price,
return on the MSCI World Equity Index, real gross domestic product, inflation rate
and inter-bank money market transaction.
In our research we will find the impact of only interest rate on stock returns.
Interest rates defined by monetary policy of economy has been considered as an
important factor to determine the stock return variance however no unanimous
viewpoint about the predictive power of interest rates to determine stock return
variance has yet observed.
Stock market in an economy plays a vital role in assessing its economic
conditions. Improved stock return means higher profitability of firms and thus overall
growth of economy while decreased stock return means lower profitability of firms
and thus overall decline of economy. Stock market basically serves as a channel to
direct the funds from individuals to investors by mobilizing individual owned
resources. With this role of the stock market, volatility in stock prices can
significantly affect the performance of the financial sector as well as the entire
economy.
- 6 -
Stock return volatility refers to the variation in stock price changes during a
period of time. Normally investors and agents perceive this variation as a measure of
risk. The policy makers use market estimate of volatility as a tool to measure the
vulnerability of the stock market. There exist an asymmetric relationship between
stock return and stock return volatility. With a fall in stock prices, volatility increases
more than when stock prices increases.
Relationship of interest rate and stock return has been widely examined by
researchers. The interest rates indirectly affect the valuation of the stock prices and
also its volatility directly creates a shift between the money market and capital market
instruments. Interest rate volatility influences the valuation of the stocks by affecting
the basic values of the firm, such as net interest margin, sales and etc. An increase in
interest rates negatively affects the value of assets by increasing the required rate of
return. Furthermore, high interest rates induce the investors to keep their money
deposited in saving bank accounts to get high interest rather to put it into risky stock
market. So with the increase in interest rate stock prices decline. As the risk free
returns come down, investors switch their money from bank accounts to stock market
investments. Consequently, demand of stocks increases and the stock markets go up
as a result of interest rate cut.
Although their are number of factors that affect stock prices but many
researchers consider interest rate as one of the most significant determinants of the
stock prices, however still it can not be said with confidence that changes in interest
rate will directly and significantly affect the stock market and so the stock returns in
overall manner.
The purpose of our research is to find the impact of interest rate on Karachi
Stock Exchange (KSE) returns. Although there are many factors that affect Karachi
Stock Exchange returns, we specified our area of research to interest rate only.
- 7 -
LITERATURE REVIEW
Ugur Ergun, Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd Nor and Mansor Bin Jusoh (2008)
examined the impact of external stocks on the linkages of Istanbul stock exchange
with monetary and macro-economic indicators in Turkey. For this purpose they used
monthly data of Istanbul stock exchange index, industrial production index, broad
money supply, short-term interest rate and USA exchange rates for the period span
from 1996 to 2008. Their research results indicate that: 1). Istanbul stock exchange
has long run linkages with the variables including industrial production index, broad
money supply and interest rate but has no linkage with U.S Dollar. 2). Istanbul stock
exchange has direct bilateral causality relationship with interest rate, broad money
supply and industrial production index. 3). U.S exchange rate has no impact on
Istanbul stock exchange with selected monetary policy and key variables. So to
sustain development in Istanbul stock exchange particularly and in whole economy
generally, policy makers should focus on interest rate as it is key policy variable.
Nousheen Zafar, Syeda Faiza Urooj and Tahir Khan Durrani (2008)
investigated the effects of interest rate volatility on stock returns and volatility using
monthly returns of Karachi stock exchange and 90 days T-Bills rate for the period of
January 2002 to June 2006. Their results indicate that interest rate volatility has a
negative relationship with stock return volatility but it has no significant impact on
stock return volatility and thus do not help much in predicting volatility in Karachi
stock exchange. Although it is generally accepted that when interest rate increases
people tend to deposit their savings in banks accounts rather then investing in stock
exchange market. Also it reduces the profitability of firms and thus stock prices go
down. As interest rate in economy is determined by monetary policy of that country,
policy makers should concentrate on it for adjusting the volume of stock market and
overall investments in economy.
- 8 -
Gulin Vardar, Gokce Aksoy and Emre Can (2008) conducted the research to
investigate the impact of interest rate and exchange rate on the composite and sector
price indices, which are Financial, Industrial, Services and Technology in the Istanbul
stock exchange. In this article they used daily sector data over the 2001 to 2008
period. The result of the research indicates that both changes in interest rate and
exchange rate effects stock returns in Istanbul stock exchange. The result also indicate
that changes in interest rate have no significant impact on volatility of industrial and
services sector while changes in interest rates have an increasing impact on volatility
of technology sector, financial and composite indices, volatility declines by the
changes in this variable. As 90% of composite index of Istanbul stock exchange was
composed of financial sector stock, the composite index react in the same manner as
financial sector index. Their research results provide useful information to the
investors that they should follow closely the monetary policies in the country to take
decision on their investments.
Daferighe. Emmanuel E and Aje. Samuel O (2007) examined the impact of
Real Gross Domestic Product, Interest rate and Inflation rate on stock prices of
quoted companies in Nigerian Stock Exchange from 1997 to 2006. For analysis
purpose they used regression which showed that the explanatory variables accounted
for 95.6% of the variation in stock prices. The results of their research showed that
reduction in interest rate and inflation rate increases stock prices while reduction in
real gross domestic product decreases stock prices and increases in interest rate and
inflation rate decreases stock prices while increase in real gross domestic product
increase stock prices. They conducted on the basis of their research that government
should implement policies that reduces the inflation rate and increases the real gross
domestic product. The interest rate should be kept moderate to encourage investment
and transaction in stock.
- 9 -
Serkan Yilmaz Kandir (2005) investigated the impact of macro-economic
variables on stock returns of Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period July 1997 to June
2005. The macro economic variables used in this study are growth rate of industrial
production index, change in consumer price index, growth rate of narrowly defined
money supply, change in exchange rate, interest rate, growth rate of international
crude oil price and return on the MSCI World Equity Index. The data used for this
study was related to all non-financial firms listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
The analysis was based on stock portfolios rather than single stocks. He used a
multiple regression model to test the relationships between the stock portfolio returns
and seven macro-economic factors. Empirical findings revealed that exchange rate,
interest rate and world market returns affected all the portfolio returns, while inflation
rate was significant for only three of the twelve portfolios. On the other hand,
industrial production, money supply and oil prices do not appear to have any
significant affect on stock returns.
Rajni Mala and Mahendra Reddy (2007) of Fiji Islands investigated the
volatility of returns in financial markets of small developing economies. For this
purpose they used a time series data for the period 2001 to 2005 on specific firms and
they founded that seven out of sixteen firms listed on South Pacific Stock Exchange
was volatile. They then investigated the interest rate as major factor causing volatility
of returns which gave positive results.
Shaharudin. Roselee S and Hon Su Fung (2008) investigated the
predictability of the stock return of different sizes of firms listed in Bursa Malaysia
for the period of January 1996 to July 2007. For this purpose they used macro-
economic variables that include Price index, Industrial Production index, Money
Supply(M3), Interbank Money Market Transaction, three months and six months
Treasury Bills Discount Rate and crude oil prices. They choose 120 companies listed
on Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. They divided the firms into four different sizes
include small, medium, large and mix caps firms. They then investigated the impact
of macro-economic variables on stocks of chosen companies and concluded that
interest rate is inversely related with the returns of all sizes of firms and an increase in
- 10 -
interest rate may cause a recession and thus cause a decline in future corporate
earning.
Prashanta K. Banerjee and Brishnu Kumar Adhikary (2007) investigated
the impact of changes in interest rates and exchange rates on the stock market return
in Bangladesh ( Dhaka Stock Exchange ). They used monthly data from January 1983
through December 2006. They gave the conclusion that changes in the interest rate
shows short-term net positive feedback effects on stock market return, which is
counterintuitive. This relationship can be explained by the indirect initiatives taken by
the Central bank of Bangladesh, which had no result. In brief, a reduction in interest
rates failed to create a bullish stock market in Bangladesh. After the debacle in
Bangladeshi stock market in 1996 and in the absence of a developed corporate debt
market in Bangladesh, investors prefer bank deposits as the best instruments in which
to invest their savings.
Ologunde, Elumilade and Asaclu (2006) examined the relationship between
stock market capitalization rate and interest rate in Nigeria. They obtained time series
data from central bank of Nigeria and Nigerian Stock Exchange. They concluded that
there is impact of interest rate on Nigerian Stock Exchange. With the increase in
interest rate, stock return decreases and hence the capitalization rate. With the
decrease in interest rate, stock return increases and hence the capitalization rate.
Shahid Ahmed (2008) investigated the nature of the causal relationship
between stock prices and the key macro-economic variables representing real and
financial sector of the India economy for the period March,1995 to March,2007 using
quarterly data. These variables are the index of industrial production, exports, foreign
direct investment, money supply, exchange rate, NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex in India.
The results of the study reveal differential causal links between aggregate macro-
economic variables and stock indices in the long run. However, the revealed causal
pattern is similar in both markets in the short run. The study indicates that stock
prices in India lead economic activity except movement in interest rate. Interest rate
seems to lead the stock prices.
- 11 -
Nil Gunsel and Sadik Cukur (2007) investigated the effects of macro-
economic factors on the London Stock Returns. For this purpose they used seven
macroeconomic variables that include the term structure of interest rate, the risk
premium, the exchange rate, the money supply, unanticipated inflation and industry
specific variables that include dividend yield and sectoral unexpected production.
Their results indicated that macroeconomic factors have a significant effect in the UK
stock market; however, each factor may affect different industry in different manner.
That is, a macroeconomic factor may affect one industry positively but may affect the
other industry negatively.
Ching-Chun Wei (2008) investigated the impact of Chinese interest rate on
the industrial production and stock market index. They used the data from
January,1985 to July, 2007. On the basis of their research they concluded that interest
rate has no effect on the Shanghai composite stock index market, while interest rate
has effect on industrial production and Shenzhen composite stock market.
Nicholas Apergis and Sophia Eleftheriou (2000) observed the relationship
between stock prices, inflation and interest rate in Greece over the period 1988-1999.
They gave the results that Athens Stock Exchange follow inflation rather than
nominal interest rate movements. The results also demonstrate that the continuous
reduction of inflation in Greece is expected to contribute to a more substantial
increase in stock prices and thus higher economic growth.
- 12 -
DATA AND METHODOLOGY
Independent variable Dependent variable
We have taken T-bills rate as risk free rate of interest from website of State
Bank of Pakistan and stock indexes of Karachi Stock Exchange from b-recorder.com
for the period January 2001 to June 2008.
We applied correlation on data. The correlation is one of the most common
and most useful statistics. A correlation is a single number that describes the degree
of relationship between two variables.
It indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two
variables. A number of different coefficients are used for different situations. The best
known is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, which is obtained by
dividing the covariance of the two variables by the product of their standard
deviations. Despite its name, it was first introduced by Francis Galton.
The correlation is 1 in the case of an increasing linear relationship, −1 in the
case of a decreasing linear relationship, and some value in between in all other cases,
indicating the degree of linear dependence between the variables. The closer the
coefficient is to either −1 or 1, the stronger the correlation between the variables.
INTEREST RATE STOCK RETURNS
- 13 -
Several authors have offered guidelines for the interpretation of a correlation
coefficient. Cohen (1988) has observed, however, that all such criteria are in some
ways arbitrary and should not be observed too strictly. This is because the
interpretation of a correlation coefficient depends on the context and purposes. A
correlation of 0.9 may be very low if one is verifying a physical law using high-
quality instruments, but may be regarded as very high in the social sciences where
there may be a greater contribution from complicating factors.
A symbol “r” is used to stand for the correlation.
Then to find out whether correlation gives right relationship, we will apply t-
test at 10% level of significance and will apply here two-tailed t-test. If value of
correlation lies in acceptance region, we will accept null hypothesis and if value of
correlation does not lie in acceptance region, we will reject null hypothesis and accept
alternate hypothesis.
- 14 -
HYPOTHESIS
We have formulated the following hypothesis and conducted the research to test
which one is true.
H0: P=0 (There is no correlation between interest rate and KSE returns.)
H1: P≠0 (There is correlation between interest rate and KSE returns.)
FINDINGS
When we applied formula on our data we got correlation of -0.2448 which is
showing that there is a negative relationship between Interest rates and stock returns,
that is, if interest rate increases their will be decrease in KSE returns and vice versa.
To test our hypothesis, we apply t-test at 10% level of significance, which
gave the results that we reject null hypothesis and accept alternate hypothesis, that is,
the correlation exists between interest rate and KSE returns.
- 15 -
Appendix 1
- 16 -
TO FIND CORRELATION
DateT Bill
Rates (X) KSE IndexKSE
Returns (Y)Jan-01 10.96 1461.6 1000Feb-01 11.55 1423.18 973.71374Mar-01 11.54 1324.41 930.59908Apr-01 11.56 1367.05 1032.19547May-01 12.53 1377.61 1007.72466Jun-01 12.07 1366.43 991.88450Jul-01 10.92 1228.89 899.34354Aug-01 10.50 1258.43 1024.03795Sep-01 10.35 1133.43 900.66988Oct-01 8.35 1406.05 1240.52654Nov-01 8.04 1358.16 965.94004Dec-01 7.06 1273.06 937.34170Jan-02 6.02 1620.18 1272.66586Feb-02 6.46 1765.95 1089.97148Mar-02 6.47 1868.11 1057.84988Apr-02 6.40 1898.95 1016.50866May-02 6.35 1663.34 875.92617Jun-02 6.34 1770.11 1064.19012Jul-02 6.40 1787.59 1009.87509Aug-02 6.38 1974.58 1104.60452Sep-02 6.34 2018.75 1022.36931Oct-02 5.56 2278.54 1128.68854Nov-02 4.32 2285.87 1003.21697Dec-02 3.51 2701.41 1181.78637Jan-03 3.19 2545.07 942.12652Feb-03 2.09 2399.14 942.66169Mar-03 1.64 2715.71 1131.95145Apr-03 1.73 2902.41 1068.74814May-03 1.66 3099.04 1067.74715Jun-03 1.21 3402.47 1097.91097Jul-03 1.21 3933.37 1156.03370Aug-03 1.61 4461.47 1134.26146Sep-03 1.61 4027.34 902.69351Oct-03 1.66 3781.03 938.84053Nov-03 1.64 4068.29 1075.97401Dec-03 1.64 4471.6 1099.13502Jan-04 1.68 4841.33 1082.68405Feb-04 1.77 4840.37 999.80171Mar-04 1.77 5106.66 1055.01439Apr-04 1.84 5430.43 1063.40152May-04 2.08 5497.79 1012.40417Jun-04 2.08 5279.18 960.23675Jul-04 2.52 5289.92 1002.03441Aug-04 2.62 5346.15 1010.62965Sep-04 3.00 5217.65 975.96401Oct-04 3.19 5332.24 1021.96199
- 17 -
Nov-04 3.73 5567.79 1044.17468Dec-04 3.73 6218.4 1116.85247Jan-05 4.16 6747.39 1085.06851Feb-05 4.79 8260.06 1224.18594Mar-05 5.35 7770.33 940.71108Apr-05 7.08 7104.65 914.33054May-05 7.82 6857.67 965.23685Jun-05 7.92 7450.12 1086.39232Jul-05 7.97 7178.93 963.59924Aug-05 8.08 7796.86 1086.07550Sep-05 8.14 8225.66 1054.99650Oct-05 8.14 8247.37 1002.63930Nov-05 8.20 9026.59 1094.48103Dec-05 8.25 9556.61 1058.71763Jan-06 8.28 10523.37 1101.16140Feb-06 8.29 11456.12 1088.63605Mar-06 8.29 11485.9 1002.59948Apr-06 8.29 11342.17 987.48640May-06 8.29 9800.69 864.09303Jun-06 8.45 9989.41 1019.25579Jul-06 8.50 10497.66 1050.87888Aug-06 8.80 10063.54 958.64602Sep-06 8.80 10512.52 1044.61452Oct-06 8.80 11327.71 1077.54468Nov-06 8.80 10619.47 937.47721Dec-06 8.80 10040.5 945.48033Jan-07 8.80 11272.33 1122.68612Feb-07 8.80 11180.02 991.81092Mar-07 8.80 11271.59 1008.19050Apr-07 8.90 12369.7 1097.42281May-07 8.90 12961.14 1047.81361Jun-07 8.90 13772.46 1062.59635Jul-07 8.90 13739.53 997.60900Aug-07 9.10 12214.26 888.98674Sep-07 9.10 13353.68 1093.28604Oct-07 9.10 14321.39 1072.46766Nov-07 9.20 13998.52 977.45540Dec-07 9.30 14077.16 1005.61774Jan-08 9.30 14016.94 995.72215Feb-08 9.60 14934.3 1065.44652Mar-08 9.80 15125.89 1012.82886Apr-08 9.89 15122.47 999.77390May-08 10.49 12130.51 802.15137Jun-08 11.49 12289.03 1013.06788
CORRELATION IS: -
- - 0.24480.2448
- 18 -
Appendix 2
TESTING FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CORRELATION
α = 10%
- 19 -
α /2 = 5%
From t-table, the value of t is
t = 0.173
r = -0.2448
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient
Table of Critical Values
- 20 -
df= N-2N = number of pairs of data
Level of significance for two-tailed test
.10 .05 .02 .01
- 21 -
1 .988 .997 .9995 .9999
2 .900 .950 .980 .990
3 .805 .878 .934 .959
4 .729 .811 .882 .917
5 .669 .754 .833 .874
6 .622 .707 .789 .834
7 .582 .666 .750 .798
8 .549 .632 .716 .765
9 .521 .602 .685 .735
10 .497 .576 .658 .708
11 .476 .553 .634 .684
12 .458 .532 .612 .661
13 .441 .514 .592 .641
14 .426 .497 .574 .628
15 .412 .482 .558 .606
16 .400 .468 .542 .590
17 .389 .456 .528 .575
18 .378 .444 .516 .561
19 .369 .433 .503 .549
20 .360 .423 .492 .537
21 .352 .413 .482 .526
22 .344 .404 .472 .515
23 .337 .396 .462 .505
24 .330 .388 .453 .495
25 .323 .381 .445 .487
26 .317 .374 .437 .479
27 .311 .367 .430 .471
28 .306 .361 .423 .463
29 .301 .355 .416 .456
30 .296 .349 .409 .449
- 22 -
35 .275 .325 .381 .418
40 .257 .304 .358 .393
45 .243 .288 .338 .372
50 .231 .273 .322 .354
60 .211 .250 .295 .325
70 .195 .232 .274 .302
80 .183 .217 .256 .284
90 .173 .205 .242 .267
100 .164 .195 .230 .254
- 23 -
Appendix 3
- 24 -
T-BILLS RATES MOVEMENT
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1/2/
2001
1/2/
2002
1/2/
2003
1/2/
2004
1/2/
2005
1/2/
2006
1/2/
2007
1/2/
2008
T BILL RATES MOVEMENT
- 25 -
KSE RETURNS
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1/2/
2001
1/2/
2002
1/2/
2003
1/2/
2004
1/2/
2005
1/2/
2006
1/2/
2007
1/2/
2008
KSE RETURNS
- 26 -
RATES VS RETURNS
RATES VS RETURNS
0
500
1000
1500
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00
RATES VSRETURNS
- 27 -
BIBILIOGRAPHY
Ugur Ergun, Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd Nor and Mansor Bin Jusoh. External shock effect on the internal linkages of Istanbul stock exchange.http://www.eurojournals.com/ejefas_14_11.pdf
Nousheen Zafar, Syeda Faiza Urooj and Tahir Khan Durrani. Interest rate
volatility and stock return and volatility.http://www.eurojournals.com/ejefas_14_13.pdf
Gulin Vardar, Gokce Aksoy and Emre Can. Effects of interest and exchange rate on volatility and return of sector price indices at Istanbul stock exchange.http://www.eurojournals.com/ejefas_11_12.pdf
Daferighe. Emmanuel E and Aje. Samuel O. An impact analysis of Real GDP inflation and interest rates on stock prices of Quoted companies in Nigeria.http://www.eurojournals.com/irjfe_25_05.pdf
Serkan Yilmaz Kandir. Macroeconomic variables, firm characteristics and stock returns: Evidence from Turkey.http://www.eurojournals.com/Pages%20from%20irjfe16serkan.pdf
Rajni Mala and Mahendra Reddy. Measuring stock market volatility in an emerging economy.http://www.eurojournals.com/8rajni.pdf
Shaharudin. Roselee S and Hon Su Fung. A study of size effect and macroeconomic factors in Malaysian stock returns.http://www.eurojournals.com/irjfe_24_09.pdf
Prashanta K. Banerjee and Brishnu Kumar Adhikary. Dynamic effects of changes in interest rates and exchange rates on the stock market return in Bangladesh.
Ologunde, Elumilade and Asaclu. Stock market capitalization and interest rate in Nigeria.http://www.eurojournals.com/IRJFE4%2012%20ologunde.pdf
- 28 -
Shahid Ahmed. Aggregate economic variables and stock markets in India.http://www.eurojournals.com/irjfe%2014%20shahid.pdf
Nil Gunsel and Sadik Cukur. The effects of macroeconomic factors on the London stock returns.http://www.digitallibrary.com
Ching-Chun Wei. Effect of China interest rate to industrial production and
stock markets index.http://www.eurojournals.com/irjfe_18_01_Ching.pdf
Nicholas Apergis and Sophia Eleftheriou. Interest rates, inflation and stock prices: the case of Athens stock market.http://www.digitallibrary.com
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