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IEc
Using AirNow-I data in
BenMAP-CE
A health burden analysis in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia
Presented by:
William Raich, Industrial
Economics, Inc. (IEc)
23 November 2018
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Outline
• Background and motivation
• Objectives
• Methodology and data sources
• Results
• Discussion
2
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Background: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
• Population of 3.5 million
• Rapidly growing
economy and
urbanization
• Major sources of
ambient air pollution:
• Aging vehicle fleet
• Unpaved roads
• Solid waste burning
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Vehicle PM Emissions in Addis Ababa
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Addis Ababa Megacities Partnership
• Collaboration between
USEPA and Addis Ababa
EPA to advance local air
quality management
• Identify and address gaps
in monitoring and data
management
• Grow analytical capacity
via benefits analysis
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Objectives
• Assess the current health burden in Addis Ababa
associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
• Support air quality management planning at the
Addis Ababa Environmental Protection Agency
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Methodology
• Use BenMAP-CE to estimate health impacts
associated with PM2.5 concentrations in Addis
• Health impact functions, e.g.:
∆𝑌 = 1 − 𝑒−𝛽∆𝑃𝑀 ∗ 𝑃𝑜𝑝 ∗ 𝑌0
Pollutant change (∆ PM)
Effect
estimate
(ß)
Health
impact
(∆ Y)
Population (Pop) Baseline incidence (Y0)
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Data Sources
• Local data sources:
• Population (Ethiopian
Statistical Agency)
• Incidence (Ministry of
Health) → in progress
• Shapefiles (Urban
Planning Commission)
• International data
sources:
• Monitors (AirNow-I)
• Incidence (Global Burden
of Disease)
• Health impact functions
(IER and GEMM)
Population
Baseline incidence
ß Health Impact Functions
Monitored air quality
$ Valuation Functions
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Data Inputs: Monitors
• No continuous PM2.5
monitors managed by
federal or local
governments in Addis
• 2 AirNow monitors in the
city!
• Located at the U.S.
Embassy and
International School
• Hourly PM2.5
concentrations since
2016
• Data processed to
create daily average
PM2.5 concentrations
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Accessing AirNow Monitor Data
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Accessing AirNow Monitor Data
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Accessing AirNow Monitor Data
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Accessing AirNow Monitor Data
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Monitored PM2.5 Concentrations (2016-2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
PM
2.5
(u
g/m
3)
School Central Ethiopia Annual Standard WHO Annual Standard
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Data Inputs: Health Impact Functions (IER)
• Integrated Exposure Response (IER)
• Derived as part of Global Burden of
Disease (GBD) study
• Quantifies PM2.5-related premature
deaths worldwide
• Cause-specific death: Ischemic heart
disease, stroke, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disorder, lung cancer,
and lower respiratory infection
• “Pooled” estimate of effect
coefficients from outdoor air
pollution, active smoking and
passive smoking studies
• Developed to characterize air
pollution at high concentrations
(e.g. >100 μg/m3)
From: Burnett, R. T., C. A. Pope, M. Ezzati, C. Olives, S. S. Lim, S. Mehta, H.
H. Shin, et al. 2014. “An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global
Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure.”
Environmental Health Perspectives 122 (4): 397-403. doi:10.1289/ehp.1307049.
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Data Inputs: Health Impact Functions (GEMM)
• Global Exposure Mortality Model
(GEMM)
• Quantifies PM2.5-related premature
deaths worldwide
• Cause-specific death: Ischemic heart
disease, stroke, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disorder, lung cancer,
and lower respiratory infection
• Non-communicable diseases (NCD) +
lower respiratory infection (LRI)
• “Pooled” estimate of effect
coefficients from cohort studies of
outdoor air pollution (no smoking
studies)
• Developed to characterize air
pollution at high concentrations and
simplify the approach and relax
assumptions with the IERFrom: Burnett, R. T., C. Hong, M. Scyskowicz, N. Fann, B. Hubbell, et al.
2018. “Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to
outdoor fine particulate matter.” PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.1803222115
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
BenMAP-CE Analysis
• Monitor rollback:
• 100% rollback of 2017 PM2.5 concentrations
• Background concentration: 0 μg/m3
• 2017 population
• 2016 GBD incidence
• Health impact functions:
• Cause-specific IER (ages 25-99)
• Cause-specific GEMM (25-99, with Chinese male cohort study)
• NCD + LRI GEMM (25-99, with Chinese male cohort study)
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
BenMAP-CE Air Quality Grid
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Health Impact Results
Mortality Endpoint GEMM IER
Cerebrovascular disease 330 200
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) 91 64
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) 640 340
Lower respiratory infection (LRI) 570 270
Lung cancer 30 18
Five causes of death (total) 1,700 880
Non-communicable diseases + LRI 3,000 -
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Results
• Annual PM2.5 concentrations in Addis ranged from 29-
41 μg/m3 in 2017
• Long-term exposure to outdoor PM2.5 accounts for
880 – 3,000 premature deaths annually in Addis
• 57 percent of all PM2.5-related deaths are linked with
five causes (ordered by magnitude):
• Ischemic heart disease, lower respiratory infection, stroke,
chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, and lung cancer
• GEMM estimates are 1.9 – 3.4 times higher than IER
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Discussion
• Data-sparse environments:
• AirNow-I allows analysts to use local monitor data in areas
where government monitors may not exists
• International, meta-analytic health impact functions (IER,
GEMM) allow analysts to assess the impacts of pollution on
human health in areas with limited epidemiological research
• Next steps:
• Refine local data sources (e.g., incidence)
• Air quality management planning
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Acknowledgments
• Project Team:
• Natalie Weiss, Meredith Amend, Stefani Penn, and Henry
Roman
Questions?
William Raich
WRaich@indecon.com
Henry Roman
HRoman@indecon.com
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