IDAHOANS PAST AND FUTURE 2015 Conference on Housing and Economic Development October 6, 2015 –...

IDAHOANS PAST AND FUTURE2015 Conference on Housing and Economic DevelopmentOctober 6, 2015 – Boise, Idaho

Priscilla Salant, DirectorMcClure Center for Public Policy ResearchUniversity of Idaho

1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-100

5

10

15

20

25

30

3532

7

29

21

11 10

13

10

Population changeIdaho and the U.S., 1970 - 2010

IdahoUnited States

Pe

rce

nt

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Components of Population ChangeIdaho, 2002 - 2014

Recession years

Population change

Natural increase

Net migration

Num

ber

4,510

4,200

2,320

2,060

2,440

2,240

All other households that moved in or out of Idaho

520,000 households didn’t move23,000 households moved out26,000 households moved in

In: 12,900

Out: 12,260

4,300

2,640

SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats

Interstate Migration of Households2012 - 2013, (based on federal tax returns)

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

2010-20 2020-30 2030-400

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 13

11

998

6

Population ProjectionsIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2040

IdahoUnited States

Pe

rce

nt

cha

ng

e

SOURCE: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

2010 2020 2030 204032

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

34.6

35.7

36.3 36.1

37.237.6

38.2 38.3

Median AgeIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2040

IdahoUnited States

Ye

ars

SOURCE: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

Observed Projected

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey

83%

12%

1%1% 3%

Population by Race and Ethnicity Idaho, 2014

Non-Hispanic White

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic Black

Non-Hispanic Alaska Na-tive/American Indian

Other

U.S. 63%

U.S. 18%

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

Non-Hispanic White

Hispanic Other

23

92

114

16

73

42

Population by Race and EthnicityIdaho, 1990 - 2010

1990-20002000-2010

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

Idaho United States

1.6<1

9.5

6.7

Births to Deaths by EthnicityIdaho and the U.S., 2013

Non-Hispanics

Hispanics

Ra

tio

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

SOURCE: Idaho Department of Health and Welfare; US Census Bureau, Population Estimates

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10

Age Distribution in Idaho, 2014

Percent of group's total population

Ag

e g

rou

p

2010-20 2020-30 2030-400

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5045

37

30

34

28

23

Hispanic Population ProjectionsIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2040

Idaho

United States

Pe

rce

nt

cha

ng

e

SOURCE: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

1980 1990 2000 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5044

4138

35

18 17 16 15

Rural Population as Share of TotalIdaho and the U.S., 1980 - 2010

IdahoUnited States

Pe

rce

nt

SOURCE: USDA, Economic Research Service

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

Idaho United States-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.7

-0.2

6.2

3.9

Rural and Urban Population ChangeIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2014

RuralUrban

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

Idaho Rural Urban-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

4

1

6

3 3 3

1

-2

3

Components of Population Change, by Rural and Urban Idaho, 2010 - 2014

TotalNatural Change (Births - Deaths)Net Migration

Pe

rce

nt

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates

McClure Center

for Public Policy & Research

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

Rural Urban-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1

6

9

14

-1

5

Population Change by Ethnicity Rural and Urban Idaho, 2010 - 2014

Total PopulationHispanicNon-Hispanic

Pe

rce

nt

cha

ng

e

• Education issues related to increasingly diverse children

• Social capital needs of communities

• Capacity needs related to front line organizations serving new minorities

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

Recent topics:

• Rural Idaho Since the Recession

• Early Childhood Learning

• Highway Funding

• Food Security

• American Indian Education

www.uidaho.edu/idahoataglance

McClure Center

for Public Policy Research

RESOURCES FOR UNDERSTANDING DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN IDAHO

www.indicatorsidaho.org