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Hypoxia Management tools: Hypoxia Management tools: indicators & modelsindicators & models
Bob WoodJohn JacobsHeath KelseyXinsheng Zhang
Cooperative Oxford Lab
www.ecocheck.org
This workshop…what I This workshop…what I learnedlearned
• Hypoxia is a growing problemHypoxia is a growing problem
• There are negative resource impacts There are negative resource impacts associated with hypoxiaassociated with hypoxia
• Predictive models are the ultimate Predictive models are the ultimate targettarget
• Our knowledge is still incomplete… Our knowledge is still incomplete…
Intersecting objectivesIntersecting objectives
• NOAA’s place-based Integrated NOAA’s place-based Integrated assessment approachassessment approach– Chesapeake Bay chosen as a ‘proof-of-Chesapeake Bay chosen as a ‘proof-of-
concept’ concept’ for Integrated Ecosystem for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA)Assessments (IEA)
• Support commitments to Ecosystem-based Support commitments to Ecosystem-based fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD)fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD)
• Deliver more with less (“actual actions”)Deliver more with less (“actual actions”)
Ecosystem-based managementEcosystem-based management
• Support philosophical change in Support philosophical change in management approachmanagement approach– Institutional boundaries must be overcomeInstitutional boundaries must be overcome– Constituents must be informedConstituents must be informed
Link indicators to research, & modelingLink indicators to research, & modeling
National Marine Fisheries Service
MD coastal bays “report card”MD coastal bays “report card”
www.ian.umces.edu
Management tools:Management tools:indicators (spatial), models, synthesisindicators (spatial), models, synthesis
Pathogens & the Coastal Bay
Ecosystem Health‘report card’
Linking Report card values to goods & services
Dissolved Oxygen / Eutrophication gradient
Mar
ine
/ Fre
shw
ater
gra
dien
tEutrophication/hypoxia in MD Coastal Bays
temp
pH
Sal
DO
Deep
Turb
Chlor
SusSolids
TN
PO4
TP
Silica
temp
pH
Sal
DO
Deep
Turb
Chlor
SusSolids
TN
PO4
TP
Silica
Individual water quality samples
Jacobs, Wood, et al.
Dissolved Oxygen-Eutrophication gradiant
Ma
rin
e-F
resh
wa
ter
gra
dia
nt
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
-4-2
02
4
temp
pH
Sal
DO
Deep
Turb
Chlor
SusSol
TN
PO4
TP
Silica
Water Quality PCA biplot vs Myco(circle radii = Myco ct)
.
DO ------------------------------------- eutrophication
Dissolved Oxygen-Eutrophication gradiant
Ma
rin
e-F
resh
wa
ter
gra
dia
nt
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
-4-2
02
4
temp
pH
Sal
DO
Deep
Turb
Chlor
SusSol
TN
PO4
TP
Silica
Biplot VibP vs. Hydrographic PCA(circle radii = VibP ct)
DO ------------------------------------- eutrophication
bottom dissolved oxygen (ppt)
Vib
rio
p.
con
cen
tra
tion
in w
ate
rs (
log
10
)
5 6 7 8 9 10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
DO vs. log10(Vibrio P.): r^2 = 0.28 ; p= 1e-012DO versus Vibrio p. abundance
r2 = 0.28 p<0.0001
Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’anchor to ecosystem goods & service outcomes
Chesapeake Watersheds Chl-aChl-a DODO
ClaritClarityy WQIWQI P-IBIP-IBI B-IBIB-IBI SAVSAV BIBI
BHHBHHII
Patapsco 0 0 0 0 10 63 2 36 18.1
Patuxent 13 49 5 22 8 24 18 17 19.4
Mid Bay 13 25 18 19 30 23 9 21 19.8
Choptank 5 78 0 28 12 31 30 24 26.0
Potomac 38 47 7 31 25 20 39 28 29.5
York 36 51 4 30 57 16 35 36 33.3
Rappahannock 19 87 8 38 38 48 3 29 33.7
N Bay 39 66 6 37 41 56 52 50 43.2
James 45 100 2 49 54 35 24 38 43.4
S Bay 4 88 5 33 51 56 57 55 43.6
Tangier Sound 13 100 8 40 no data 76 25 50 45.2Coming soon to… www.ecocheck.org
Moving into Chesapeake
Bay
Built upon the Bay Built upon the Bay Program (in MD) Program (in MD) WQ monitoring WQ monitoring
surveysurveyAlso being mapped:•Mycobacterium sp. •V.parahaemolyticus•Hematodinium
Linking watershed land use patterns to
ecological stress
Anacostia
Annemessex
BackCreek
Elizabeth
Manokin
NortheastPatapsco
PiscatawayPocomoke
Chester
ChoptankWicomicoBack
Bay
CorsicaCorsica
RhodeRhode
Anacostia
Annemessex
BackCreek
Elizabeth
MagothyMagothy
Manokin
NortheastPatapsco
PiscatawayPocomoke
St Marys
Chester
ChoptankWicomicoBack
%Urban
%Forest
%Agriculture
%Wetland
Sassafras
Honga
Little Choptank
Monie
Severn
Mattawoman
Sassafrass
UpperChoptank
Pocomoke
UpperChester
Annemessex
Manokin
BackCreek
Northeast
Wicomico
Mattawoman
StMarys
Piscataway
Severn
Patapsco
Magothy
Elizabeth
Anacostia
0 5 10 15
DO
Urb
an%
ra
nki
ng
Urban% watershed vs. DO (bottom)
DO
Urb
an
Lan
d U
se R
anki
ng
%Urban Land Use & dissolved oxygen
Magothy
Anacostia
Mattawoman
Severn
Elizabeth
Piscataway
StMarys
Annemessex
Manokin
Patapsco
Pocomoke
Wicomico
Northeast
UpperChoptank
UpperChester
BackCreek
Sassafrass
0 2 4 6
TDN
Ag
% r
an
kin
gAg% watershed vs. Total N (surface)
Agri
cult
ura
l La
nd U
se R
anki
ng
TDN
%Agricultural Land Use & total dissolved nitrogen
A simple model: Bay Anchovy A simple model: Bay Anchovy modelmodel DO Scale Function of bay anchovy consumption
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DO (mg/L)
DO
sca
le f
un
ctio
n (
frD
OX
)
Temperature Scale Function of bay anchovy comsumption & respiration
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Temperature
Tem
pera
ture
scale
fu
ncti
on
s
fcTemp
frTemp
Zooplankton Scale Function of bay anchovy consumption
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zooplankton Biomass (g DW/m3)
Zo
op
lan
kto
n s
cale
fu
nct
ion
(fr
ZP
)
Dissolved Oxygen
Temperature
Prey
Response functions from literature:e.g., Brandt et al. 1992; Luo & Brandt 1993
Ch
esa
peake
Bay P
rog
ram
mon
itori
ng
data
Bay anchovy Habitat Bay anchovy Habitat SuitabilitySuitability
(growth rate potential)(growth rate potential)
Zhang, Bahner, Wood, Houde, Annis, Harding
Model PerformanceModel Performance
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
GR
P (
g/g
/d)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
MD
DN
R R
ecru
itm
ent
Ind
ex
Jun - Sep Mean GRP
Recruitment Index
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
GR
P (
g/g
/d)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
MD
DN
R R
ecru
itm
ent
Ind
ex
Jun - Sep Mean GRP
Recruitment IndexVIMS VA Bay CPUE
(MD DNR seine)
Consider punctuating research & Consider punctuating research & model development with value model development with value added productsadded products
Outreach:Outreach:• Agency Agency
managersmanagers• Decision makersDecision makers• ConstituentsConstituents
AcknowlegementsAcknowlegements
Many colleagues from partner Many colleagues from partner institutions including …institutions including …
Center of Marine Biotechnology Center of Marine Biotechnology (U.MD)(U.MD)
UMCES – HPL; CBL; IANUMCES – HPL; CBL; IAN
Chesapeake Bay ProgramChesapeake Bay Program
SERCSERC
And othersAnd others
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