HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (1):...

HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (1): OBSERVATIONS

1. Introduction: the story so far….

2. Global warming: the last 150 years

3. Is it really warming?

4. Fingerprints: the stratosphere, the hockey sticks

Emission spectrum from Earth measured by NIMBUS-7 satellite, 1970.

Source: Hanel, 1971.

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0

50

100

150

220 K

240 K

260 K

280 K

300 K

320 K

Wave number (cm-1)

Rad

ian

ce

(mW

.m-2

.sr-1

cm)

H2O CO2 Atmospheric

window

O3 CH4 H2O

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Source: NOAA; see also Archer, 2012, p. 93.

Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide

Source: IPCC, 2001. See also Archer, 2012, p. 123.

Car

bo

n d

ioxi

de

con

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

)

Years before present

Couldn’t this all be part of a natural cycle? Atmospheric CO2 recorded in the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, and measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Source: data from WDC Paleoclimatology and NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 records.

Greenhouse gases provide a RADIATIVE FORCING on the climate system.

Source: IPCC AR5

CO2: about 1.68 W.m-2

Cloud changes: about -0.55 W.m-2

Albedo changes: about -0.15 W.m-2

Total anthropogenic: about 2.29 W.m-2 1750-2011

The world is getting warmer.

Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Global temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 average.

Source: data from NASA GISS; combined land-ocean temperature index.

Global temperature trend 1880-2012

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 36; see also Archer, 2012, pp. 135-138.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 37.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 53.

Trends in daily extreme warmth, 1951-2003. Extremely warm = upper 90th percentile. Scale is days per decade.

Is it really getting warmer?

How or why might this record be wrong?

Source: Menne et al., 2010, JGR- Atmospheres.

From point to grid: weather stations in the USHCN

From point to grid: global distribution of weather stations. Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 98.

Gridded data in Global Historical Climatology Network.

Source: National Climatic Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ghcn-gridded-temp.html

Source: Watts, 2009, Is the US surface temperature record reliable?, Heartland Institute.

Aren’t the weather stations badly placed?

Satellite images of the urban heat island of Atlanta, Georgia (top-true colour; bottom- land surface temperature).

Source: McCarthy et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL042845

U.S. paved area approaches that of Ohio.

Source: Elvidge et al., 2004, Eos: Transactions AGU, vol. 85 no. 24.

Reconstructions of global average temperature, 1880-2013.

Source: Drawn from data retrieved from GIStemp, National Climatic Data Center, and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature websites.

Time (year)

Tem

per

atu

re

rela

tive

to

19

51

-19

80

ave

rage

(C

elsi

us)

Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 72.

Sea-surface temperature measurements from ships

Source: IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

Sea-surface temperature measurements from ships

The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate.

Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004.

NASA’s Aqua satellite carries the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (A-MSU).

Source: NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov.

Science progresses: corrections to MSU data as we learn how to use it.

Corrections to University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) data from MSU. Source: SkepticalScience.com

Multiple data sets all show warming. Te

mp

erat

ure

fro

m s

atel

lites

(U

AH

an

d R

SS)

Tem

per

atu

re f

rom

su

rfac

e st

atio

ns

(NA

SA G

ISS

and

NC

DC

)

Source: data downloaded from websites of each research organization. Graph shows temperature change in Celsius for middle troposphere (satellite) and surface (surface stations), relative to different standards.

OK, you don’t like the temperature data.

What else could we look at?

Source: The Cryosphere Today/NSIDC

Source: The Cryosphere Today/NSIDC

Changing sea ice extent 1953-2012

Derived from satellite images and written records.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

Mallard Fillmore, cartoon, 9/24 and 9/25/2013.

As printed in the Ogden Standard-Examiner.

Changing sea ice extent 2002-2013

Source: Drawn using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

Sea

ice

exte

nt

(mill

ion

sq

uar

e km

)

3.63

5.35

Changing sea ice extent 1953-2012

Derived from satellite images and written records.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

Changing sea ice extent 1978-2012

Derived from satellite images.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

New melt extent on Greenland, 2005. Source: Koni Steffen.

Source: Measurements from NASA’s GRACE satellites.

Changes in mass, Greenland and Antarctica. Change in mass, 2003-2010, cm water. Source: NASA

Holgate Glacier, Alaska, 1909.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

Holgate Glacier, Alaska, 2004.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

McCall Glacier, Alaska, 1958.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

McCall Glacier, Alaska, 2003.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

Global glacier retreat. Source: Oerlemans, 2001, Nature; see also Archer, 2012, p. 139.

Global glacier retreat. Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 2008, Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figures.

Global glacier retreat. Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 2008, Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figures.

Glaciers worldwide are losing mass. Change in mass, 2003-2010, cm water. Source: NASA

Source: Measurements from NASA’s GRACE satellites.

Ice loss on Kilimanjaro. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 59.

Changes in the biosphere: fewer frost days in winter mean more exotic invasive species- Switzerland, 1900-2000.

Source: Walther, 2000, cited in Walther et al, 2002, Ecological responses to recent climate change, Nature vol. 416.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, pp. 48-49.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, pp. 50-51.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 57 (originally from Emanuel, 2006, Nature).

Temperature profile through the atmosphere: warming troposphere, cooling stratosphere.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 39.

The original ‘hockey stick’: northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction since 1400.

Source: Mann, Bradley and Hughes, 1998, Global scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature vol. 392.

Northern hemisphere temperature change over the last 1000 years.

Source: IPCC, 2001.

Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 80.

Northern hemisphere temperature change over the last 1300 years, derived from 10 different reconstructions.

Medieval Warm Period, ~900-1300

Little Ice Age, ~1450-1850

Reconstructions of global temperature patterns during Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA).

Source: Mann et al., 2009, Global signatures and dynamical origins of the LIA and MCA, Science vol. 326.

Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 47; see also Archer, 2012, p. 145.