View
0
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
HSMAI New York 2013 Outlook
Business Intelligence
Tim Hart EVP
11/14/2012
2
TravelClick gathers a vast amount of market intelligence.
Data Set We gather over
10 billion rates per month from over hundreds of sources
We have
100% of reservations made through the four major GDS
We receive daily
future demand data from major brands for a 365-day horizon
We gather rates from more than 356 sources: • 196 hotel brand.com sites • 160 online travel agencies • GDS
We receive every booking from: • Sabre • Galileo • Worldspan • Amadeus
We receive all reservations and group sales blocks from: • Marriott • Hilton • Hyatt • Intercontinental • Starwood • Wyndham* • La Quinta*
Future Historical Frequency Daily 3x/Week 2x/Week
• Four Seasons • Gaylord • Omni • Kimpton • Loews • Mandarin
Oriental
Rate Agency Demand
Demand participation continues to grow, from large and small brands to independent hotels.
3 Note: Wyndham, LaQuinta, SAX, Destination, Allerton, and Dolce are in the certification process; with targeted completion in Q4 of 2012.
Founding Partners Brands Independent
*
* NAFS Only
We make our data available on the industry’s leading business intelligence platform—Hotelligence360...
Intuitive & easy-to-use
Interactive dashboards, activity-based reports
and alerts
Go-deep into details
Guided analytics and filtering allow users
to view data from different angles
Tailored to specific roles Answers questions for key roles within your
properties
All data in one place
In 2013, rate, agency, and demand data
integrated on a single platform
4
Market Outlook
5
6
Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is up 1% over same time last year.
-12.0%
-6.0%
0.0%
6.0%
12.0%
18.0%
24.0%
-8,000,000
-4,000,000
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Var %
to LY
Room
Nig
hts
Top 25 North American Markets
Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var %
7
New York’s outlook is slightly better, with committed room nights for the coming year up 3.5%.
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
75.0%
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Var %
to LY
Room
Nig
hts
New York
Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var %
8
Nationally, transient occupancy and ADR is up, but group occupancy has fallen behind same time last year and group ADR growth has slowed.
Group
Room Nights ADR
-0.9% +1.1%
Transient Business
+5.3% +5.4%
Transient Leisure
+6.7% +4.5%
Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on the books for future 12 months in top 25 North American markets
Negotiated, Retail
Discount, Qualified, Wholesale
9
The outlook by segment for New York is similar, but with group down in both occupancy and ADR.
Group
Transient Business
Transient Leisure
Room Nights ADR
-0.9% +1.1%
+5.3% +5.4%
+6.7% +4.5%
Room Nights ADR
-0.4% -2.4%
+6.7% +1.8%
+8.5% +4.3%
Top 25 Markets New York
The recent pace of new group business sold has been slow, resulting in the weaker group position heading into 2013.
On The Books Recent Pace Top 25 Markets -0.9% -10.3% New York -0.4% -25.0%
On the Books Group room nights committed for next 12 months versus same time last year
Recent Pace New group sales (room nights committed) in last 30 days versus same period last year
10
Year over Year Variance in Group Room Nights – Next 12 Months
11
While recent new group sales for 2013 are down for all months, the outlook for late summer is the weakest.
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
New York Group New Sales (past 30 days) and On the Books Year over Year Variance
OTB Var % New Sales Var % Avg OTB Var% Avg New Sales Var %
12
Nationally, group sales pace has been trending behind last year’s pace for each quarter in our horizon.
-50.00%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
OTB Pace
Q4 2012
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov -20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
OTB Pace
Q1 2013
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
-20.00% -15.00% -10.00%
-5.00% 0.00% 5.00%
10.00%
OTB Pace
Q2 2013
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov -25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
OTB Pace
Q3 2013
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Business Occ ADR
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Leisure
13
New York transient advance booking pace is relatively strong, particularly in the leisure segment.
14
The transient booking window has been lengthening over the course of 2012, perhaps distorting year over year comparisons in demand growth.
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2012-05 2012-06 2012-07 2012-08 2012-09 2012-10
Average Booking Lead Time New York, Transient
Adv Bkg Days LY Adv Bkg Days
15
Public retail pricing heading into the summer of 2013 has declined, perhaps as the group outlook began to deteriorate.
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1/6/
2013
1/13
/201
3
1/20
/201
3
1/27
/201
3
2/3/
2013
2/10
/201
3
2/17
/201
3
2/24
/201
3
3/3/
2013
3/10
/201
3
3/17
/201
3
3/24
/201
3
3/31
/201
3
4/7/
2013
4/14
/201
3
4/21
/201
3
4/28
/201
3
5/5/
2013
5/12
/201
3
5/19
/201
3
5/26
/201
3
6/2/
2013
6/9/
2013
6/16
/201
3
6/23
/201
3
6/30
/201
3
Average Public Rates – New York OTA, WEB, GDS Channels
8/1/2012 9/1/2012 10/1/2012
Channel Distribution
16
17
Transient channel mix has continued its shift online, with Brand.com and OTA’s increasing their share of transient bookings over the last year.
WEB, 26%
CRS, 19% DIR,
19%
GDS, 19%
OTA, 16%
Channel TY Mix LY Mix Var %
WEB (Brand.com) 26.3% 24.3% 8.4%
CRS (Voice) 18.7% 18.9% -0.9%
DIR (Property) 19.2% 22.2% -13.4%
GDS 19.5% 19.7% -1.4%
OTA 16.3% 14.9% 9.4%
Channel Share of Transient Segment New York Q3, 2012
18
Expedia and its family of sites continue to lead in OTA channel share. Priceline has significant share as well.
ORB
TRV
OTA-OTH
TVW
PRL
HOT
HCM
EXP
-50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
Var % to LY Var% All
Room Nights – Var% to Last Year Q3, 2012 - New York
Booking.com?
19
Discounts off retail rates vary significantly by OTA. Opaque sites naturally offer the deepest discounts.
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00 New York
ADR Retail ADR
20
But OTA discounts are narrowing. OTA rate growth has exceeded retail rate growth, nationally and in New York as well.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
All Mkts New York
ADR Variance % to Last Year Q3, 2012
OTA Retail
21
Summary Thoughts on 2013…
Uncertainty… (Fiscal Cliff, Overall Economy)
Slow group demand pace = less group base heading into 2013
Lowered demand expectations showing up in advance pricing, hindering ADR growth
Tim Hart November 14, 2012 This Presentation is Online: www.TravelClick.com
22
Recommended