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How Does Smart Growth Impact Climate Change Emissions?
Bay Area Air Quality Management DistrictAdvisory Council’s Air Quality Planning Committee
11 April 2007
Dr. John HoltzclawChair, Sierra Club Transportation Committee
Consultant: NRDC
john.holtzclaw@sierraclub.orgwww.sflcv.org/density
Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use
SPRAWL TRANSIT
VILLAGE URBAN CENTER
METRO CENTER
San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco
Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200
Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994; Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989
3 Hh/Res Acre (Courtesy City of Portland)
Community Transformation courtesy Steve Price http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/community/transformations/index.asp
Transform only main street - San Pablo Ave in El Cerrito, CA
As Shown Census Tract Avg. C T Before Transf.No Parking 60 hh/res ac 15 hh/res ac 9 hh/res acSurface Parking 30 hh/res ac 12 hh/res ac 9 hh/res ac
(census tract is 8 x 10 blocks)
San Francisco
North Beach
Paul and Tira
90 Hh/Res Acre
Backyard, No parking
San Francisco - North Beach
90 Hh/Res Ac Underground parking
San FranciscoWest of Union Square 3 x 4 block zone
7 live theatres, fine hotels, cafes and markets
1 to 36 stories, mostly 4 - 16 stories
467 - 536 Hh/Res Ac15% of land residential
limited parking
San FranciscoWest of Union Square 3 x 4 block zone
7 live theatres, fine hotels, cafes and markets
1 to 36 stories, mostly 4 - 16 stories
467 - 536 Hh/Res Ac15% of land residential
limited parking
Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use
SPRAWL TRANSIT
VILLAGE URBAN CENTER
METRO CENTER
San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco
Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200
Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994;
Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989
Transit (veh/hr nearby) 1 27 90 very high
Shopping (5 w/in 1/4 mi) no homes 25% of homes all homes all homes
Pedestrian amenities low medium high high
Autos/capita 0.79 0.66 0.28 0.12 Auto miles/capita 10,591 6,455 2,759 1,145 Ann. auto costs/capita $8,200 $5,030 $1,900 $800
www.sflcv.org/density
Housing sales prices $295/ft2 $407/ft2 $1,858/ft2 higher
Ann lbs CO2 emissions/capita 14,827 9037 3863 1603
Location Efficient Mortgage
LEM research
Institute for Location Efficiency
Center for Neighborhood Technology (Chicago)Natural Resources Defense Council
Surface Transportation Policy Project
LEM Research
Nearly 3000 neighborhoods (TAZs)Chicago, LA and San Francisco metro areas
How do: densities (3 measures) shopping proximity public transit ped/bike (grid, short, narrow, sidewalks, setbacks) family income family sizeimpact: vehicles (census data) VMT (odometer readings from smog checks -- total driving, not just commutes)
Driving vs Residential Density
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0 50 100 150 200
Households/Residential Acre
An
nu
al
VM
T/H
h
SF
LA
Chicago
0- 5 Hh/RA = sprawl
Auto Mileage, Density & Stage of LifeMTC's 1990 Houehold Travel Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Households/Residential Acre
Da
ily H
ou
se
ho
ld M
ilea
ge
Single Adults
Adults, kids <16
Adults, kids 16-21
Retired
Driving vs Density by Household SizeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions
<2 pop/hh2-4 pop/hh
>4 pop/hh
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Households/Residential Acre
An
nu
al V
MT
/Hh
Driving vs Density by IncomeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions
Poor (<$30K)
Middle IncomeWealthy (>$60K)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Households/Residential Acre
An
nu
al V
MT
/Ho
use
ho
ld
Annual Household Driving – San Francisco
VMT per Household875 - 50005001 - 1000010001 - 1500015001 - 2000020001 - 2500025001 - 3000030001 - 43000
Household Mileage
V e h / H h , V M T / V e h a n d V M T / H h i n m e t r o p o l i t a n S a n F r a n c i s c o
2336.0$
000112.03471.0
312.600519.111520.22722.4
2386.1
Tr
H
Pe
RA
HHh
Veh P
22136$
01743.00704.0102759.015041.0103860419.0
PPed
H
P
TA
H
Veh
VMT
V M T
H h
V e h
H h
V M T
V e h
F o r t h e 3 m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , t h e R 2 = 7 9 – 9 6 % f o r V e h / H h a n d 8 0 – 9 4 % f o r V M T / H h .
H / R A i s H o u s e h o l d s / R e s i d e n t i a l A c r e s , H / T A i s H o u s e h o l d s / T o t a l A c r e , $ / P i s I n c o m e / C a p i t a ,P / H i s P e r s o n s / H h , T r i s Z o n a l T r a n s i t D e n s i t y a n d P e d i s P e d / B i c y c l e F r i e n d l i n e s s
R e p o r t e d i n : J o h n H o l t z c l a w , * R o b e r t C l e a r , H a n k D i t t m a r , D a v i d G o l d s t e i n a n d P e t e r H a a s ,L o c a t i o n E f f i c i e n c y : N e i g h b o r h o o d a n d S o c i o - E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s D e t e r m i n e A u t o O w n e r s h i pa n d U s e - - - S t u d i e s i n C h i c a g o , L o s A n g e l e s a n d S a n F r a n c i s c o . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g a n d T e c h n o l o g y ,V o l . 2 5 ( 1 ) , p p 1 - 2 7 , M a r c h 2 0 0 2 . h t t p : / / w w w . t a n d f . c o . u k / j o u r n a l s / o n l i n e / 0 3 0 8 - 1 0 6 0 . h t m l
A l s o r e p o r t e d a t h t t p : / / w w w . s i e r r a c l u b . o r g / s p r a w l / t r a n s p o r t a t i o n / h o l t z c l a w - a w m a . p d f
0 300 600 900
450
300
1502
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Ann
ual
VM
T/H
ouse
hold
Zonal Transit Density
Hh/Res Acre
Impact of Density and Transit on DrivingSan Francisco Bay Area
0 300 600 900450
300
150
2
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Ann
ual
VM
T/H
ouse
hold
Zonal Transit Density
Hh/Res Acre
Impact of Density and Transit on DrivingSan Francisco Bay Area
Collateral Benefitsof Compact Development
Saving building materials,heating & cooling energy, and water
cuts energy use and pollution
(Phillips & Gnaizda, CoEvolution Quarterly, Summer 1980)
0 1 2 3 4 5
heat, cool home
driving
autos
lumber
pipe, wiring
The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl
Relative Impacts
urban infill (100 units/res acre)sprawl
0 10 20 30 40
Relative Impacts
water
land; species
pavement
The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl
urban infill (100 units/res acre)
sprawl
The Cool Cities Pledge, originally called the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, states:. . .C. We will strive to meet or exceed Kyoto Protocol targets for reducing global warming pollution by taking actions in our own operations and communities such as:1. Inventory global warming emissions . . .2. Adopt and enforce land-use policies that reduce sprawl, preserve open space, and create compact, walkable urban communities;3. Promote transportation options such as bicycle trails, commute trip reduction programs, incentives for car pooling and public transit;. . .
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