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Housing and NDCs Key Findings from Phase 1 of
the National Evaluation
Ian ColeCRESR
Sheffield Hallam University
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Outline of presentation
The NDC programme Housing and the NDC paradigm... the impact of housing interventions neighbourhood renewal in a differentiated
housing market the crucial role of household mobility outstanding challenges for NDC housing
strategies.. ..and for the next phase of the evaluation.
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
The Different Emphasis of the NDC programme
Short – term (e.g. SRB typically 3 year schemes) 10 year horizon
Distrusted by local residents Communities at the centre
Overly focused on physical regeneration ‘Holistic’ approach
Divorced from long-term public service providers
Close working with LA and key agencies
Designed
to
produce
Sustainable
renewal
for both
people
and
places
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Relative Area Deprivation and NDCs
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Housing as the latecomer
Not originally a key outcome area ..but included due to community concerns even if leverage over large scale investment is
limited long lead-in time for housing strategies ..feeding some community frustration number of NDC projects increased by 78 per cent
2001 – 2004 ..but housing projects increased by 115 per cent!
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Housing in the NDC paradigm
community-led emphasis often delayed agreement over approach
focus on improving what there was, not creating something new...?
NDC often became local catalyst for debates around stock transfer, new forms of investment, rise of buy to let markets..
..and initially apart from parallel interventions – eg HMR
NDC as an 'inward-looking' not 'outward-looking' initiative?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Inward-looking?:NDC
Outward-looking?:HMR
Emphasis Agency Structure
Focus Existing residentsNeighbourhood
Potential residentsSub-region
Approach to housing stock
Re-invest Remodel
Priorities in housing mgmt
Accessibility/support
'Marketing'/'rebranding'
Nature of links Management-centredInter-departmental
Strategy-centredInter-sectoral
Priority to c'ty involvement
High Low
Strengths Visible impact Market-centred
Vulnerabilities Spill-overDisplacement
C'ty supportDelivery vehicle
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Outcomes for Housing and the Physical Environment
improving environment/levels of satisfaction (25) improving housing quality/satisfaction (24) improving appearance of the area (19) green/open spaces (17) reducing proportion of voids (12) reducing rates of out-migration (9) increasing house prices in relative terms (8)
Source: NDC Delivery Plans 2004
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Average dwelling price by type in NDC areas
£166,650
£69,500
£98,150
£161,050
£149,050
£64,250
£68,450
£121,350
£0 £40,000 £80,000 £120,000 £160,000 £200,000
Flats
Terraced
Semi-detached
Detached
2001
2004
Source: SDRC
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Average dwelling prices: NDC areas with highest and lowest prices 2004
£21,600
£16,150
£26,400
£24,800
£28,250
£167,550
£151,600
£214,900
£231,850
£249,900
£34,300
£36,600
£44,600
£47,050
£47,950
£207,550
£209,150
£218,100
£277,850
£290,650
£0 £40,000 £80,000 £120,000 £160,000 £200,000 £240,000 £280,000 £320,000
Hartlepool
Manchester
Oldham
Bradford
Hull
Brent
Lambeth
Hackney
H'smith & Fulham
Islington
2004
2001
Source: SDRC
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Neighbourhood renewal for differentiated housing markets (1)
in London..... affordability dominates all impact on leaseholders risk of 'two tier' markets ..but receipts from land sales offer some
leverage overcrowding more an issue than high void
rates
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
London: 9 of 10 areas with highest rates of residential overcrowding
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Bristol N
DC
Hartlepool N
DC
Manchester N
DC
Rochdale N
DC
Sunderland N
DC
Salford N
DC
Doncaster N
DC
Plym
outh ND
C
Southam
pton ND
C
Walsall N
DC
Know
sley ND
C
Middlesbrough N
DC
Liverpool ND
C
Oldham
ND
C
Nottingham
ND
C
Derby N
DC
Norw
ich ND
C
Brighton N
DC
Leicester ND
C
Wolverham
pton ND
C
Birm
ingham K
N N
DC
Hull N
DC
Coventry N
DC
Sandw
ell ND
C
New
castle ND
C
Sheffield N
DC
Luton ND
C
Islington ND
C
Bradford N
DC
Lewisham
ND
C
Ham
mersm
ith & F
ulham N
DC
Lambeth N
DC
Haringey N
DC
Hackney N
DC
Brent N
DC
Birm
ingham A
ND
C
New
ham N
DC
Southw
ark ND
C
Tow
er Ham
lets ND
C
per
cen
tag
e
Over 1.0 persons per room
NDC average
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Neighbourhood renewal for differentiated housing markets (2)
in Hartlepool..... 300 properties to be demolished ..but further demolition opposed by residents how to find up to £12 million for refurbishment? concerns about poor management in PRS extensive developable land – why invest in the
NDC area? poverty is 'widespread not concentrated' ..so where are the affluent to help produce the
'mix'?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Tenure in NDC areas
11
10
40
55
47
34
10
10
42
57
47
32
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Comparator
NDC
Comparator
NDC
Comparator
NDC
Priv
ate
rent
erS
ocia
l sec
tor
rent
erO
wne
r oc
cupi
ed
Percentage
2002
2004
Base: All Source: MORI/NOP
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
..but big changes on the horizon..?
Southwark:
projected proportion of home owners (2011) 8% Delivery Plan objective (2011) 50%
Brent:
projected proportion of home owners 17% Delivery Plan objective 38%
Newcastle
projected proportion of home owners 14%
Delivery Plan objective 40-50%
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Impact of housing interventions...
too soon to tell..? disruption for many communities but intensive management has been
selectively introduced market change and mobility more telling
than specific interventions?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Additionality of NDC expenditure and outputs
Housing and Environment (£333) 8,000 Homes
improved or built
Education (£244) 9,500 adults obtaining
qualifications
Crime and disorder (£164) 70,000 young people involved in diversion
activities
17,000 received job training
104 new or improvedhealth facilities
Worklessness (£154)
Health (£149)
Per capita NDC spend 2000/01 to 2003/4
.52
.64
.82
.82
.85
Additionality RatioExample output
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Perceptions of the area are improving (2002-2004)
1
-9
6
-14
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Satisfied with area
Area worse than 2 years ago(a)
Percentage point change
NDC
Comparator
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Limited impact on satisfaction with accommodation, repair and landlords
71
67
77
71
88
82
70
65
77
69
87
81
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Comparator
NDC
Comparator
NDC
Comparator
NDC
Sat
isfie
d w
ith la
ndlo
rd (
b)S
atis
fied
with
sat
e of
repa
ir of
hom
e (a
)S
atis
fied
with
acco
mm
odat
ion
(a)
Percentage
2002
2004
Base: (a)All; (b)All tenants, including shared ownership; NDC Aggregate 2002 (13,222), 2004 (12,883); Comparator 2002 (1,052), 2004 (2,109)Source: MORI/NOP
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
..but the impact of inward and outward mobility is significant
78
31
18
48
61
29
41
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Economically Active
NVQ4+
16-24
Owner Occupiers
Percentage
Inmovers
Outmovers
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
the circumstances of outmovers from NDC after 2002
31
48
41
38
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Social sector renter
Owner occupier
Percentage
2002
2004
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
the impact of mobility.... does it show latent demand for affordable
home ownership locally... or is it a sign of getting on, by getting out?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
Housing in Phase 1 of NDC evaluation
discernible shift from environmental uplifts and housing management focus to investment, restructuring and tenure change..
synthesis emerging between 'inward' and 'outward' approaches?
more 'market aware' approaches being developed .. ..but transformational change will depend on
patterns of mobility as much as quality of interventions
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
and some outstanding 'challenges'..
scale of investment required for transformational change
while managing local expectations the development of intermediate housing options.. the potential threats to community cohesion in
segmented housing markets partnership approach with LAs, RSLs, HMR, RHBs
EP etc is essential for NDCs ... ..but not a meeting of equals? and clashing time frames for delivery.. is 10 years long enough?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC9 May 2006
and challenges for Phase 2 of the evaluation...
use 2006 and 2008 MORI household surveys to map changing profile of in-migrants
..but cannot follow out-movers six case study NDCs will offer detailed monitoring
in different market contexts need to explore changing circumstances of
particular communities over time success of new residential developments is key but inevitable time lag between changing the
landscape ....and changing the image.
Housing and NDCs Key Findings from Phase 1 of
the National Evaluation
Ian ColeCRESR
Sheffield Hallam University
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