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© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2016
Highlights from the IEA-EBRD collaborative project to assess clean
energy technology markets - a case study on Belarus
Simone Landolina & Sonja Lekovic
22 June 2016, Budapest
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA-EBRD collaboration under FINTECC: scope and aim
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Mongolia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
ETC
Egypt
Jordan
Morocco
Tunisia SE
MED
Kazakhstan
+
Two mains components:
1. Policies for fostering deployment of clean energy technologies
2. Methodology for assessing clean energy technology markets
Regional focus of collaboration: ETC and SEMED
© OECD/IEA 2016
Events
23 Sept 2014: Expert stakeholder event (Paris) • Hosted by the IEA
• 45 participants, primarily exchange of views among int. and reg. orgs
15-16 June 2015: Event for SEMED and ETC policy experts (Istanbul) • Hosted by the Turkish Ministry of Energy and
Natural Resources
• 75+ participants from 13 countries;
• 7 int. organisations (IEA, FAO, IRENA, UNDP, UNECE, UNESCWA, and UNFCCC);
• 3 multilateral development banks (EBRD, EIB and IFC) and 2 development agencies (GIZ and USAid)
© OECD/IEA 2016
Key outputs
Policy paper (June 2015)
Methodology paper (June 2016)
Pilot studies: Belarus, Morocco & Kazakhstan (June - July 2016)
© OECD/IEA 2016
The Clean Energy Technology Assessment Methodology (CETAM)
3. Monitoring2. Metric formulation
1. Prioritisation 3. Monitoring2. Metric formulation
Figure X: Key outputs at each step
Ren
ewa
ble
ener
gy
Ener
gy
effi
cien
cy
Priority resources
Priority RETsPriority
ratings for RETs
RET penetration metrics
RET penetration levels and
trends
RET costs
RET enabling environment
Priority energy using
sectorsPriority EETs
Subsector energy use indicators
EET penetration
metrics
EET penetration levels and
trends
Priority ratings for
EETs
EET enabling environment
A 3-step process:
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus - Renewables
Prioritisation of renewable energy technologies
• Resources Vast bioenergy resources - > 6 Mtoe
Other resources reasonable, insufficient CSP
• Cost of generation IEA estimates show that wood and landfill gas based generation is
cost competitive, while solar applications are less attractive
• Strategic priorities Energy security and reducing GHG
• Market opportunities Grid-connected electricity, renewable heat, and biofuels in transport
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus - Renewables
Matrix of priority indicators for renewable energy technologies, Belarus
Technology Resource Strategic drivers
Market opportunities
Technology maturity
Cost Priority score
Rooftop PV Ready for deployment
Large-scale solar PV Need further evaluation
Large-scale CSP n/a n/a n/a n/a No potential
Solar water heaters Ready for deployment
Solar space heaters Ready for deployment
Solar heat for industry / services
Need further evaluation
Wind Need further evaluation
Biomass Ready for deployment
Biogas Ready for deployment
Geothermal n/a Need further evaluation
Hydro Ready for deployment
Notes: Star ratings are out of four stars, with representing a low score and representing an exceptionally good score. Technology maturity represents the global level of maturity.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus – Biomass example
Bioenergy penetration indicators, Belarus, 2014
Bioenergy cost indicators, Belarus, 2014 Cost indicators are not available from the government
More detailed costs assessment necessary to provide a cost/remuneration analysis and determine the level of maturity in the market
Biomass Biogas Biodiesel Share of national total attributed to
biomass, biogas and biodiesel Production (ktoe) 1 399.1 8.9 24.6 39%
Electricity from co-generation (GWh) 84 32 0 0.5%
Heat from co-generation (TJ) 2 465 111 0 1.7%
Heat from heat plants 17 240 0 0 16.6%
Consumption (ktoe)
Industry 49.1 0.2 0 1%
Agriculture 40.6 0 22 5.5%
Commercial 219.4 0 0 9.4%
Residential 378.2 0 0 7.7%
Transport 0 0 2.6 <0.1%
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus – Monitoring
Monitoring progress towards targets
• Attainable targets Technology neutral
9% of total energy supply from renewables by 2035;
2.6 TWh electricity generation from renewables generation by 2035;
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035
MW
Biomass Wind Biogas Hydro Solar Geothermal Industrial waste Wind announced Solar announced
2020 target
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035
MWh
2035 target
2030 target
2025 target
2020 target
Tracking progress toward renewable electricity capacity and generation targets, 2015-35
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus - Renewables
Conclusions: • Strengths include:
Significant resource potential.
Improved legislative framework, relevant to foreign investments.
Generous FITs and attractive costs for certain technologies (particularly bioenergy from wood residues and landfill gas).
Comprehensive data on market penetration.
• Suggested areas for improvement include: Improving the enabling environment for renewables, by removing
or increasing quotas for grid-connected renewables to 2018.
Increasing public awareness of renewables potential, particularly in state-owned enterprises where potential for smaller scale off-grid renewables is large.
Cost data assessment to be expanded.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus – Energy Efficiency
Prioritisation of energy efficiency technologies
Energy consumption by sector, Belarus, 2014
Main demand drivers: Economic growth/standards of living, structural change in the
economy, urbanisation, transit country for transport
Energy saving measures have curbed demand growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mtoe
Industry
Non-energy use*
Transport
Residential
Commercial and public
servicesAgriculture, forestry and
fishing
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus – Energy Efficiency
Priority sub-sectors and end-uses for analysis
Residential Industry Transport Sub-sectors: Buildings Cement/building materials
Chemical and petrochemical
Food manufacturing
Textiles
Machinery manufacturing
Wood processing
Road transport
End-uses Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Appliances
Process heating
Machine drive
Passenger vehicles
Buses
Heavy-duty vehicles
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus – Energy Efficiency
Priority EETs and estimated current market penetration
<25% 25-50% 50-75% >75%
Estimated current market penetration
TFC of applicable sectors (2014)
Residential
24%
Commerce and public services
11%
Industry
22%
Transport
20%
Non-energy use
17%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
6%
Energy savings
End use Technology
Space heating Triple glazed windows
Space heating Windows (double low-e
glazing, low-conductive frames)
Space heating Energy-plus windows in cold climates (highly insulating and dynamic solar)
Space heating Automatic heat control systems with heat metering and data collection devices
Lighting LED lamps
Space heating Radiators - EU labelling
A++
Space heating Electric heat pumps - EU
labelling - A++
Space heating Gas heat pumps - EU
labelling - A++
Space heating Fully-automated
biomass boilers Space heating Pellet-fired boilers Space heating Biomass-fired boilers Space heating Pellet stoves
Water heating Solar water heater - EU
labelling - A
Water heating Heat pump water
heater - EU labelling - A Lighting Algorithmic lighting
Energy savings
End use Technology
Space heating Solid wall insulation
Space heating Low-E windows
Lighting High-Intensity Discharge
Lamps (HID)
Space heating Loft insulation (100 to
200mm)
Space heating Floor insulation
Lighting Daylight sensors
Lighting Presence sensors
© OECD/IEA 2016
Belarus – Energy Efficiency
Conclusions: • Strengths include:
Strong government focus and attention to energy savings –decoupling of economic growth and energy demand since the mid-1990s.
Clear policy direction and increasing public awareness.
Progressive phase-out of electricity and heat subsidies over time.
• Suggested areas for improvement include: Improving energy efficiency indicators by expanding data
collection methods.
Improving market conditions for the development of ESCOs.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Outcomes and lessons learned
CETAM: Ready to be applied in other SEMED, ETC countries and beyond.
Variation across the pilot countries:
• Data quality
• Ambition to deploy clean energy technologies
• Some stronger on EE (e.g. Belarus) other on RE (Morocco)
Energy efficiency technologies: Much harder to measure and monitor than renewables – data from audits, etc is key.
Even where it is difficult to apply, using CETAM can help identify data collection gaps.
© OECD/IEA 2016
Thank you for your attention!
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