View
2.569
Download
1
Category
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
A Vancity Credit Union report: May 2015"Metro Vancouver’s future growth is dependent on the availability of high-quality labour, which is now threatenedby the rapid increase in the cost of living, driven primarily by unaffordable housing."
Citation preview
1Help wanted: salaries, affordability and the exodus of labour from Metro VancouverMay 2015
Highlights MetroVancouversfuturegrowthisdependentontheavailabilityofhigh-qualitylabour,whichisnowthreatened
bytherapidincreaseinthecostofliving,drivenprimarilybyunaffordablehousing.
Millennialsarethenextgenerationofworkersandarehighlyeducatedandverymobile.Upto93percentofMillennialsplantoownahomesometimeinthefuture.MetroVancouvershousingcrisiswillmotivatethisgrouptomigrateawayinsearchofbetteropportunities,leadingtoalabourcrisis.
Oneprimarycauseisthatsalariesarenotkeepingpacewithincreasedhousingcosts.Between2001and2014,thecostofMetroVancouverhousingincreasedby63percent,whilesalariesonlyroseby36.2percent.
Thehighcostofhousingisalreadypricingmanyin-demandworkersoutofMetroVancouver.Onaverage,thesalaryrequiredtomaintaintheaveragemortgageintheregionis$78,088.Manyoccupationsthattheprovincereliesuponforitseconomicenginedonotmeetthisthreshold.
Inthefuture,Vancouverhousingisprojectedtoriseby4.87percentayear,butslowsalarygrowthwillcontinue:wagerategrowthforin-demandoccupationswillriseonlybetween0.6percentand3.2percent.
By2020,82of88in-demandjobswillbeunabletoaffordasingle-familyhomeinMetroVancouver.
By2025,85of88in-demandjobswillbeunabletoaffordtoliveinMetroVancouver.Onlythoseindividualsworkingasseniorbusinessmanagers,seniorconstructionmanagersandengineeringmanagerswillbeabletomaintainaffordablehousing.
Intenyears,mostindividualsmayforgoacareeropportunityintheregionandrelocatetoadifferentlabourmarket.Ifthereisanabundanceofoutwardmigration,alabourcrisiswilloccur.
Make Good Money (TM) is a trademark of Vancouver City Savings Credit Union.
2Agrowingandvibranteconomycreatesincreaseddemandforworkerstofuelthatgrowth.High-quality,highlyskilledlabourisavitalfactorofproduction,especiallyinaknowledge-intensiveeconomysuchasVancouvers.MorethanonemillionnewworkersareexpectedtobeneededinBritishColumbiaby2022,witharound640,000requiredintheMainland/Southwestregionalone.iBusinessgrowthandmaintenanceofqualitypublicservicesaredependentuponaddingthesejobstotheworkforce.Butwhatiftherearenoworkerstofillthesenewpositions?
Labourisrequiredtoturncapitalintogrowth.However,aconcerningtrendisemerging:anever-increasingcostoflivinginMetroVancouver,ledbythehighcostofhousing,isthreateningtheregionsabilitytoattractworkers.BecauseofthecurrentcrisisinMetroVancouvershousing
economics,thefuturelabourmarketholdsasignificantriskofdecreasedsupplyifnothingchanges,fewerandfewercandidateswillbeansweringemployersHelpWantedsigns.
The impact of housing on the job market for MillennialsTheemergingclassofMillennialsthosebornfromabout1980to2000areknowledgeworkersthatareincreasinglymobile.Oneoftheprimaryfactorsthatpotentialemployeesconsiderwhenpursuinganewjobisnetincome,notgrosssalary.Ifthecostoflivinginaparticularareaistoohigh,thenworkersarelikelytolookelsewheretomaximizetheirdisposableincome.Theprimaryindicatoroflong-termcostoflivingishousingaffordability.
Thereisampleevidencelinkinghousingaffordabilityproblemswithlabourshortages.InmanyoftherecentlabourmarketdemandandsupplyanalysesconductedbyRoslynKuninandAssociates,oneofthemajordetrimentsinemployeerecruitmentandretentionhasbeenthehighcostofhousing.iiForexample,arecentnewsarticlereportedthatbodyarmourmanufacturerPacificSafetyProductsInc.[is]closingitsremainingoperationsinKelownaandmovingtoOttawa,citinglabourshortagesduetothesoaringcostofhousinginBritishColumbia.iii
Contrarytopopularbelief,Millennialsarejustaslikelytoaspiretohomeownershipaspreviousgenerations.Lastyear,MillennialsmadeupthelargestgroupofrecentbuyersintheU.S.market(32%)andover80%ofmillennialandGenXbuyersconsiderhomepurchaseagoodfinancialinvestment.ivThistrendismirrorednorthoftheborder:Yconic/Uthinksurveyed1,538English-speakingCanadians
aged15to33,andalmostallthosesurveyedsaidtheyplantobuyahomeatsomepointintheirlives.v
Millennialsareverymobileandthemosthighlyeducatedgenerationever,viandfuturelabourmarketsdependonwooingtheseworkers.Areaswithahighcostoflivingduetoincreasinglyunaffordablehousingwillbeatasignificantdisadvantageinthenearfuture.ItisentirelylikelythatthisdesirewillmotivateMillennialstomigrateawayfromMetroVancouverinsearchofbetteropportunities.Infact,theknifeedgeofthattrendhasalreadystarted:in2013,Vancouversufferedanetlossof1,571residentsinthe20to30agegroup,upfrom770theyearbefore.viiThisnetoutflowisnotsurprisingwhengrowthinincomesissodramaticallylaggingbehindgrowthinkeyexpenses.
Incomes: salary growth stagnating in B.C. Between2001and2014,averagehourlywageratesforfull-timeworkintheprovincehavegrown36.2%,whichequatesto2.2%peryear.viiiHowever,duetotheunderlyinglabourmarketperformanceofdifferentsectors,certainoccupationalgroupshaveexperiencedahigherthanaveragewagerategrowth.
The top five occupational groups for growth are in:
art, culture, recreation and sports (59.9%) management (46.2%) senior management (39.2%) primary industry (38.8%) the health professions, including nurse supervisors and
registered nurses (38.0%) total employed, all occupations
170.0
150.0
130.0
110.0
90.02001 2013201020072004
index(2001=100)
Highest five wage growth
Source:StatisticsCanada.Table282-0070-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS)
3Althoughsomeoccupationshaveexperiencedabove-averagewagegrowthduringthistimeperiod,notalllabourershaveseentheirincomesgrowatthislevel.Thebottomfiveoccupationalgroupsforgrowtharelistedbelow.
Furthermore,salarygrowthseemstobeslowing.Five-yearpeakgrowthduringtheperiodwasbetween2005and2009,withsalariesrisingonaverage3%peryear.Yetthelastfiveyears(2010to2014)haveonlyseengrowthof1.3%peryear.Thistrendrevealsstagnatingsalarygrowthprovince-wide,resultinginlessdisposableincomeforresidentsasexpensesrise.
Expenses: salaries are not keeping pace with the housing market Whileaveragewageshaveincreased36.2%between2001and2014,averagehomeresalevalueinMetroVancouverhasrisenbyalmost63%overthesameperiod.ThisissueismoststarkintheCityofVancouver,wherevalueshaverisenby211%.ThismeansthatmortgagepaymentsonanewlypurchasedhomeinVancouverarecostingtheaveragehouseholdalmost76%ofitsgrossannualincome.Thefactthatthehousingmarketissodramaticallyoutpacingwageincreasesiscauseforconcern.Asaresult,theremaybedemandforcertainoccupationsinMetroVancouverbutthoseoccupationsmaynotpayemployees
Lowest five wage growth
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.02001 2013201020072004
index(2001=100)
Source:StatisticsCanada.Table282-0070-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS)
In Vancouver, between 2001 and 2014:
Average wages have increased 36.2% Average home values have increased 211%
enoughtofinanceasustainablelifestyle.Comparingcurrentmarketratesforhousingandforlabourcandeterminewhichoccupationscanorcannotaffordtoliveintheregion.
BasedontheB.C.governmentsrecentemploymentoutlook,ixsomeofthejobsthatareprojectedtogeneratethehighestdemandinMetroVancouverincludesuchoccupationsascomputerprogrammers,tradescontractors,registerednursesandadministrativeofficers.Butiseconomicgrowthpossibleiftheseworkerscannotaffordhousinginthearea?Tomeasurethis,amodelwassetuptocomparemedianemploymentincomeofoccupationswithaveragehousingcost.
In2014,theaverageMetroVancouverresalepropertycost$713,125.xAftera20%down-payment,thispurchasepricetranslatesintoamonthlymortgagecommitmentof$3,280atcurrentrates.Tomaintaindebt-loadatanaffordablelevel,thehouseholdwouldneedtomake$123,000peryear.Correctingforthefactthat57.5%ofBritishColumbiahouseholdsaredual-earning,theaffordabilitythresholdperearnerbecomes$78,088.1AnalyzingjobsthathaveamedianincomeoverthisthresholdcandeterminewhichoccupationscanactuallyaffordrealestateinMetroVancouver.
Comparingthisthresholdwiththeprovincialestimationofhighdemandjobsto2022,itbecomesobviousthatthesalarylevelsofjobsrequiredforeconomicgrowtharetoolowtoallowtheseworkerstoliveaffordably.Thefollowingisalistoftheseprojectedhigh-demandoccupations.Thoseshadedcurrentlydonotmeettheaffordabilitythresholdtopurchaseahome.
clerical occupations, including supervisors (27.6%) some sales and service occupations (25.0% ) technical, assisting and related occupations in health (24.5%) childcare and home support workers (21.8%) labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities (10.4%) total employed, all occupations
1Couple-familyhouseholdswithchildren:24.4%;Couple-familyhouseholdswithoutchildren:30.2%;Multiple-familyhouseholds:2.9%.StatisticsCanada,CensusmetropolitanareaofVancouver,BritishColumbia.AccessedMay15,2015.www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-cma-eng.cfm?LANG=Eng&GK=CMA&GC=933
4Management occupations
Seniormanagers-financial,communicationsandotherbusinessservices $143,624.90
Seniormanagers-construction,transportation,productionandutilities $131,237.15
Engineeringmanagers $124,047.11
Managersintransportation $82,355.81
Constructionmanagers $81,453.03
Facilityoperationandmaintenancemanagers $69,307.84
Accommodationservicemanagers $51,384.82
Homebuildingandrenovationmanagers $49,146.35
Restaurantandfoodservicemanagers $41,793.54
Business, finance and administration occupations
Professionaloccupationsinbusinessmanagementconsulting $71,155.54
Humanresourcesprofessionals $70,261.86
Financialauditorsandaccountants $64,403.74
Professionaloccupationsinadvertising,marketingandpublicrelations $60,241.77
Purchasingagentsandofficers $58,926.99
Executiveassistants $58,807.16
Propertyadministrators $53,098.52
Administrativeofficers $50,005.63
Legaladministrativeassistants $49,177.61
Accountingtechniciansandbookkeepers $45,073.18
Administrativeassistants $44,119.94
Accountingandrelatedclerks $44,045.97
Generalofficesupportworkers $43,887.03
Receptionists $35,695.17
Natural and applied sciences and related occupations
Electricalandelectronicsengineers $95,522.54
Civilengineers $86,711.29
Mechanicalengineers $86,073.48
Inspectorsinpublicandenvironmentalhealthandoccupationalhealthandsafety $76,148.74
Computerprogrammersandinteractivemediadevelopers $74,319.05
Constructioninspectors $72,821.16
Electricalandelectronicsengineeringtechnologistsandtechnicians $68,663.57
Draftingtechnologistsandtechnicians $57,453.54
5Health occupations
Specialistphysicians $112,056.12
Generalpractitionersandfamilyphysicians $82,863.43
Medicalsonographers $76,668.65
Registerednursesandregisteredpsychiatricnurses $74,710.22
Medicalradiationtechnologists $72,450.23
Physiotherapists $70,083.52
Medicallaboratorytechnologists $69,467.98
Audiologistsandspeech-languagepathologists $68,511.97
Occupationaltherapists $63,166.47
Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services
Lawyers $109,333.80
Universityprofessorsandlecturers $95,972.54
Policeofficers(exceptcommissioned) $92,485.99
Firefighters $85,754.04
Collegeandothervocationalinstructors $76,931.33
Socialworkers $65,995.49
Businessdevelopmentofficersandmarketingresearchersandconsultants $65,707.57
Healthpolicyresearchers,consultantsandprogramofficers $64,887.59
Family,marriageandotherrelatedcounsellors $58,916.76
Socialandcommunityserviceworkers $44,157.19
Earlychildhoodeducatorsandassistants $31,662.68
Homechildcareproviders $19,713.63
Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport
Authorsandwriters $54,063.06
Interiordesignersandinteriordecorators $45,307.09
Programleadersandinstructorsinrecreation,sportandfitness $32,135.33
Sales and service occupations
Retailandwholesalebuyers $50,116.85
Chefs $40,331.16
Retailsalessupervisors $38,358.03
Retailsalespersons $34,915.73
Securityguardsandrelatedsecurityserviceoccupations $34,723.05
Bakers $33,150.66
Cooks $29,163.50
Foodandbeverageservers $20,008.35
6Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
Industrialelectricians $85,786.04
Contractorsandsupervisors,heavyequipmentoperatorcrews $77,215.62
Constructionmillwrightsandindustrialmechanics $76,786.87
Heavy-dutyequipmentmechanics $76,580.35
Steamfitters,pipefittersandsprinklersysteminstallers $75,784.15
Craneoperators $70,790.26
Gasfitters $67,947.53
Machinistsandmachiningandtoolinginspectors $65,552.11
Heavyequipmentoperators(exceptcrane) $65,435.53
Electricians(exceptindustrialandpowersystem) $65,366.36
Contractorsandsupervisors,carpentrytrades $64,657.71
Contractorsandsupervisors,otherconstructiontrades,installers,repairersandservicers
$63,939.02
Weldersandrelatedmachineoperators $59,703.09
Plumbers $57,573.65
Sheetmetalworkers $57,546.17
Transporttruckdrivers $56,251.54
Concretefinishers $49,070.25
Carpenters $47,191.03
Residentialandcommercialinstallersandservicers $45,182.69
Materialhandlers $45,155.23
Paintersanddecorators(exceptinteriordecorators) $43,646.49
Plasterers,drywallinstallersandfinishersandlathers $42,346.76
Deliveryandcourierservicedrivers $38,263.59
Taxiandlimousinedriversandchauffeurs $29,501.49
Occupations in manufacturing and utilities
Powerengineersandpowersystemsoperators $85,423.27
WiththerisingcostofhousinginMetroVancouver,manyofthemoremoderatelypaidoccupationsarealreadyfindingthemselvespricedoutoftherealestatemarket.Asmentioned,theimbalancebetweenoccupationalincomesandhousingexpensesisakeyindicatoroftheeconomicviabilityofaregion.Couldthisresultinaneconomicstagnationinthefuture?Thispossibilitybecomesevenmoreclearascurrenttrendsareprojectedforwards.
Looking forward: what professions will be able to afford Metro Vancouver? Iftrendscontinue,moreandmoreoccupationswillbepricedoutoftheMetroVancouvermarket.Thereport,
Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and BeyondpublishedbyVancityindicatesthatifhousingmarketscontinuetheircurrentrise,theaverageMetroVancouverresalepricewillreachalmost$1.5millionby2030.xiThecityofVancouveritselfwillseeaveragepricesof$2.2million.Yet,withoccupationalemploymentdemandexpectedintheMetroVancouverlabourmarket,wage-rategrowthforin-demandoccupationswillonlyrisebetween0.6%and3.2%.Asthegapbetweenhousingcostsandsalariesincreases,fewerindividualswillbeabletoaffordtoliveintheregion.
By2020,82of88in-demandjobswillbeunabletoaffordasingle-familyhomeinMetroVancouver.Bythistime,someverynotableprofessionswillfinditsignificantlymore
Source:StatisticsCanada-2011NationalHouseholdSurvey,valuesupdatedto2014figuresbyVancity.
7difficulttoaffordproperty,includingindustrialelectricians,civilengineers,constructionmanagers,policeofficers,firefightersandgeneralpractitioners.Theoccupationswhichwillmakemorethantherequired$101,238peryeararelistedbelow.
By2025,onlythreeoccupationsremainonthelistmakingenoughfromtheiremploymenttoaffordhousinginMetroVancouver:$125,692.Atthispoint,lawyers,electricalengineersandspecialistphysiciansfalloffthelist.
Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services $ 164,095.18
Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities $ 149,941.86
Engineering managers $ 141,727.05
Specialist physicians $ 117,168.27
Lawyers $ 113,736.39
Electrical and electronics engineers $ 105,538.70
Occupation 2020 est.
Thefactistherateofprojectedwagegrowthisnotanywhereasfastastherateoftheprojectedpriceincreaseofasingle-familyhomeinMetroVancouver.Ifhousepricescontinuetheirincreaseatthespeedthathasbeenobservedduringtherecentpast,eventhebest-payingjobswillbeunabletokeepup.
Implications and costs of inaction ThehousingaffordabilityrealitiesfacedbyMillennialscouldleadtoseveralscenariosinthelabourmarket.
Giventhisresearch,mostindividualsmayforgoacareeropportunityintheregionandrelocatetoadifferentlabourmarket.Ifthereisanabundanceofoutwardmigration,alabourcrisiswilloccur.
Employerswhoarecommittedtoattractingandkeepingthebrightesttalentwillhavetopaymoreinwagesortoprovideothercreativenon-wagebenefits,althoughitwillstillbedifficulttokeeppacewiththepriceofhousing.Thisincreasesthecostofdoingbusinessintheregion.Someofthatcostwillbepassedontoconsumers,furtherincreasingthecostofliving.
Individualsmaycontinuetolivewiththehighcostofhousing,forgoingexpensestopursueothernecessities,suchasRESPandRRSPsavings.
Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services $ 183,365.48
Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities $ 167,550.08
Engineering managers $ 158,370.57
Occupation 2025 est.
Individualswithintheregionmayadopttypesofhousingarrangementswithintheregionthataremoreaffordable,suchasrenting,orfindotheruniquelivingarrangementsthatsharethehighcostofhousingamongmultiplehouseholds.
Today,Millennialsfacechallengesandbarriersthatseeminsurmountabletoovercome.Theystillfacethelingeringeffectsfromthe2008globalfinancialcrisis,havingstayedinthepost-secondaryeducationsystemlongerthanpreviousgenerationsinthehopeoffindingbetteremploymentopportunities.Inreality,theyfaceameagrelabourmarket.MetroVancouverssky-rocketinghousepricescanonlyservetobeadetrimentforthoseseriousaboutestablishingacareerintheregion.
Ahealthyeconomyisreflectedbyitscitizenswhoareproductive,byitsbusinesscommunitywhichisvibrantandprovidingarealchoiceofcareersandopportunities,byitspublicserviceswhichsupportaqualitylifestyle,andbyalabourmarketthatisfunctioningtomaximizeitsresourcesthehumancapital.
MetroVancouverisincreasinglybecomingaregionalhubfortrans-Pacifictradeandfinancialservices.Itisalsorapidlydevelopingintoatechnologycentre.xiiTodevelopintoasustainableeconomyintheseareas,theregionrequiresahealthysupplyofthehighlyskilled,highlyvalue-addingprofessionals,andoccupationsthatarelesser
8skilled,lesserpaidyetfunctionallyjustasimportant.Thisistheonlywaytocreateacompetitiveedgeinthefuture.
Pastresearchhasshownthatinefficienturbanlabourmarketsresultinanunderperformingurbaneconomy:resourcesarenotallocatedtothemostproductiveusesand,overtime,thereisalossinpotentialeconomicoutput.Theseeffectsarenotconfinedtoadepressedemploymentsectorinanurbaneconomy,inefficiencyinonesectorresultsinwidespreadnegativeeffectsforall.
Labourmarketinefficiencyoccurswhentheavailabilityoflabourorthedistributionoflabourdonotreachtheirbestallocation.Theformerreferstothelackofskilledlabourrequired.Thelatterreferstothelackofaccesstolabouratthemostefficientcost.Ineithercase,theynegativelyimpactthepaceofgrowthintheeconomyand,therefore,thecompetitivenessoftheeconomy.
TherecentConferenceBoardofCanadareport,Skills for Success: Occupations, Credentials, and Skills for a Prosperous B.C.quantifiedtheeconomicimpactofpotentialskillsgapsinthelabourmarket.Itconcludedthat:
SkillsgapsassociatedwithloweducationalattainmentamongmanyB.C.residentscosttheprovincialeconomyupto$4.7billionannuallyinforegoneGDPaswellas$775millioninfederaltaxrevenuesand$616millioninprovincialtaxrevenues.
UnderutilizationoftheskillsofhighlyeducatedBritishColumbiansmaycosttheprovinceupto$1.3billioninforegoneGDPannuallyaswellas$212millioninfederaltaxrevenuesand$169millioninprovincialtaxrevenues.
Firm-levelimpactsofskillsgapsandmismatchesincludeinconsistentproductandservicequality,lowerproductivity,lowersales,lossofnewopportunities,andlowerprofits.
Individual-levelimpactsofskillsdeficitsincludehigherunemployment,lowerearnings,poorerphysicalandmentalhealth,weakercommunityengagementandlowerlifesatisfaction.
A2010reportalsobytheConferenceBoardofCanadaconcludedthat:
Currently, there is an appreciable shortage of good-quality, advantageously located, and affordable housing in Canada. This shortage is having a detrimental effect on Canadians health, which, in turn, reduces their productivity, limits our national competitiveness, and indirectly drives up the cost of health care and welfare.xiii
WhiletheConferenceBoardofCanadastudyemphasizedthesocio-economicimpactoflackofaffordablehousing,anAustralianstudyhasshowndirectlinksbetweenhousingaffordabilityandlabourmarketefficiency,orhousingunaffordabilityandlabourmarketinefficiency:
Housing markets, it is feared, are pricing low and moderate income households out of job-rich areas and injecting a spatial dimension to supply-side constraints on economic growth. Moderately paid workers essential to the smooth functioning of the urban economy are less able to find and keep employment. Spatial dislocation of housing and labour markets also increases the probability of job informational deficits and asymmetries and job search costs, imposing further efficiency costs on the economy. Poor housing affordability, in this view, results in both increasing housing stress (housing-related poverty) and urban economic inefficiency.xiv
Recommendations Asthisreporthasfound,oneoftheprimarycausesofalabourcrisisinMetroVancouverwillbethehighcostoflivingdrivenbyunaffordablehousing.Toavoidthis,policyandbehaviourresponsesshouldfocusonwaysofimprovingaccesstofutureworkers,bothbyreducingthecostofhousingaswellasincreasingsalaries.Theseresponseswillnotaddresstheequallypressingissueofensuringthateducationandskillsmatchfuturesupplyanddemand.
For government:
Inclusionary zoning: Buildaffordabilitytargetsintomunicipalzoningbylawsrightfromtheoutsetthroughinclusionaryzoning.Thisgivesdeveloperstherighttodevelopmarkethousingonlyiftheyincludeacertainamountofnon-markethousinginthedevelopment.Inclusionaryzoningdiffersfrombonusdensity,whichrewardsdeveloperswithadditionalmarket-ratedevelopmentdensitytodevelopmarketcondosinexchangeforbelow-marketratecontributionstheymaketodeliveringaffordablehousingunits(and/orothercommunityamenitieslikelibraries,childcare,publicart,etc.).Integratingbelow-markethousingoptionsintodevelopmentrightshelpstomanagethelandvalue.
Rental housing tax incentives:Thefederalgovernmentshouldproviderentalhousingtaxincentivestoownersoflong-term,purpose-builtrentalhousingtomakedevelopmentofrentalhousingascompetitiveasmarketcondominiums.Thisformofincentivewouldencouragebetterlocationandmaintenanceofrentalhousingbyenablingcompetitionbetweendevelopersfortaxcredits.
9Land lease renewals:Manyexistingaffordablehousingdevelopmentsinparticular,not-for-profithousingco-operativeswerebuiltonlandsecuredunderlong-termleasesfrommunicipalitiesorothergovernmentagenciesandarecomingupforrenewalinthenext10to15years.Theleasesforaffordablehousingstockthatexistonpubliclandsshouldberenewedand,whereappropriate,coupledwitharedevelopmentapproachthatmaximizesaffordableandcommunity-ownedunitsonthesite.
Repurposing public and community-owned land: Thereissignificantinventoryofurbanlandownedbypublicagenciesandcommunity-basedorganizations(includingchurches,legions,not-for-profitorganizations,etc.).Thislandbaseshouldbeinventoriedandcreativeincentivesshouldbedevelopedtorepurposethatlandtodeliverfinanciallysustainablemixed-tenureandmixed-usedevelopmentsthatmaximizeaffordableresidentialunits.
Workforce housing inclusion: Whenlargenewfirmsestablishthemselvesinurbancentresandinjectsignificantnumbersofnewemployeesintotheregion,thereshouldbeastrategicwayofaddressingtheirassociateddemandonhousing.Thiscouldrangefromincentivesforthoseentitiestodevelopworkforcehousingaspartoftheirattractionpackagethroughtoinclusionaryrequirementstodeliverhousingunitscommensuratetoanynewofficeorindustrialdevelopments.
Focus on supply: Provincial,regionalandmunicipalgovernmentsneedtoworkwiththeircommunitiestocreateincentivesthatmaximizetheefficientuseofexistinghousingstocktoservehousingneeds.Mucheffortisplacedonthedemandforaffordablehousing,butneweffortscouldbefocusedonmanagingthesupplyside.
Harmonize affordable housing strategies:Regionalauthoritiesshouldcontinuetoworktoharmonizeaffordablehousingzoningstrategiesamongtheirmembermunicipalities.TheProvinceofBritishColumbiahaspublishedasetofguidesformunicipalgovernmentstobrokercommunityamenitycontributionsinalegallysoundwaythatfollowsgoodplanningpracticeandavoidsincreasinghousingcoststhroughtheprocess.Regionalandprovincialgovernmentsshouldcontinuetosupportmunicipalitiestoincreasetheirsophisticationinrealestateeconomicsandbrokeringinclusionaryresidentialdevelopments.
For business:
Living wage: Wagesshouldbeatanadequateleveltomeetafamilysbasicneeds.Thisratevariesbycommunitybecauseitreflectscostsassociatedwithaspecificplace.Businessesshouldknowthelivingwageoftheiremployeesandseektoraisewagesifrequiredtoallowforsustainablework.
Benefits:Flexiblebenefitscouldalsobringhouseholdincomesandexpensesintogreateralignment.Flexibleworkhourscanhelphomeownersmaximizehouseholdincomebyhelpingacoupletobothengageinfull-timeemployment.Jobsharingcanimprovehouseholdincomebyallowingasecondearnertoentertheworkforce.Transitbenefitscanhelpdecreaseexpensesbytakingacarofftheroad.
Relocating:Inthemediumterm,businessescouldmoveofficestohigherdensitybusinesscoresservicedbypublictransit.
Advocate for affordable housing:Labourisakeycostofproductioninaknowledgeeconomy.Inadequatesupplyofworkerscanincreasecostswhereasadequatesupplyofworkerscanreducecosts.Businessesshouldadvocateforaffordablehousingsolutionstoattractandretainworkersbyreducingthecostofliving.
Explore options for investing in affordable housing:Businesses,eitheraloneortogether,couldexploreoptionsforinvestinginaffordablehousingfortheirworkforce.Thiscouldgenerateaninvestmentorrevenuestreamatthesametimeasprovidingreducedcostsforworkers.
For individuals:
Evaluate renting versus buying: Millennialsshouldseriouslyconsiderthefinancialcostsandbenefitsofownership.Ifownershipdoesnotcurrentlymakefinancialsense,instituteanautomatedsavingsandinvestmentplanthatcanbuildequityoverthelongterm.
Embrace multi-family living: Residentsshouldworktogetherandembracenewformsofmulti-familylivingandowningarrangements,suchashousingco-operatives,co-housingandco-ownership.
Think smaller: Householdsshouldreducetheirfootprintbyconsideringasmallerspacewithmulti-functionaluseandfurnishings.
Live with others:Householdscouldconsiderintergenerationalcommunityliving.
10
MethodologyForthisreport,RoslynKuninandAssociatesconductedextensiveresearchofsecondaryinformationandstatisticaldataavailablefromStatisticsCanada,BCStats,labourmarketinformationwebsiteshasbeenapplied.
Thefollowingdatasourceshavebeeninvestigated:
StatisticsCanada,suchasintheLabour Force Survey, National Household Survey,andtheCensuses;
BCStats,suchasEstablishment Counts by Industry;
Occupationallabourdemandoutlookavailablefromtheprovincialgovernmentspublication;
Recentmajorstudiesofemployerneedsandeducationandtrainingrequirements(forexample,theforthcomingOccupations, Credentials, and Skills for a Prosperous BC,bytheConferenceBoardofCanada);
Otheroccupational/industryanalysisassociatedwithtechnologicaladvancementandeconomicdevelopmenttrendsinregions,countriesaroundtheworld;and
Journalandnewsarticlesonhousingaffordabilityandlabourmarketmobility.
ThefollowingisadescriptionoutliningtheprocedurestoprojectthepotentialnumberofjobopeningsinMetroVancouver,andpotentialwagegrowthassociatedwiththejobs.
DetailedemploymentbyoccupationdataavailablefromStatisticsCanadas2011NationalHouseholdSurveyforestimatesofthenumberofemployedbyoccupation(usingNationalOccupationalClassificationforStatisticsNOC-S)inMetroVancouverin2011hasbeenobtained.xv
Fromthesamesourcedataonmedian(full-time)employmentincomeassociatedwitheachoccupation(usingNOC-2011)hasbeenobtained.
Thespecificemploymentgrowthrateapplicabletoafour-digitNationalOccupationalClassification(NOC-2011)codebetween2012and2022isfromtheWorkBC Labour Market Navigator Tool,fortheMainland/SouthwestDevelopmentRegion.
ThesameWorkBC Labour Market Navigator Tool alsoprovidesrangeofregionalhourlywageratesapplicabletoafour-digitNOCcodefromtheJob Bank Wage Report.AlsoavailablefromtheToolisthepercentageofthepotentialnumberofjobopeningsduetoattritionandthoseduetoincreaseinneweconomicactivity.
Potentialnumberofnewjobopeningsforeachofthefour-digitNOCoccupationsconcernedhasbeenprojectedbyapplyingtheapplicableemploymentgrowthratetothebaseemploymentnumberin2011.
Toderivepotentialnumberofjobopeningsduetoattritionneeds(toreplacethosewhowillleavetheworkforceduetoretirementordeath)everyyearbetween2011and2022,theattritionratiostoeachfour-digitNOCoccupationconcernedhavebeenapplied.
Potentialtotaljobopeningsarethesumofopeningsduetoneweconomicactivitiesandopeningsduetotheneedtoreplacetheworkerswhowillhavelefttheworkforceduetoretirementordeath.
Aratiooffull-timewagerategrowthtoemploymentgrowthforeachofthe32two-digitNOC-SoccupationalgroupingsasperdataavailablefromStatisticsCanadasLabour Force Surveyhasbeencreated.xviTheratiosallowforacomparisonofwagegrowthandemploymentgrowthforthesameoccupationalgroupinMetroVancouversince2001.
Median(full-time)employmentincomein2014dollarvalueshasbeencalculatedbasedonactualgrowthinfulltimewageratesbyoccupationalgroup(fromthesamesourceasabove)between2010and2014.
Theratiosoffull-timewagegrowthtoemploymentgrowthbyoccupationalgrouptospecificfour-digitNOCoccupationsforwhichemploymentgrowthby2022hasbeenprojectedhavebeenappliedtoprojectacorrespondingrangeoffull-timefull-yearearningsvaluesin2022andbeyond.
11
Referencesi. WorkB.C.British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook,pg10.AccessedMay11,2015.
www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
ii. Anumberoflabourmarketstudiesinwhichthehighcostofhousinghasbeenfoundtobeadetrimenttorecruitmentandretentioncanbefoundin:Vancouver Coast & Mountain Tourism Region (excluding Sea-to-Sky Corridor) Tourism Labour Market Study, Thompson Okanagan Tourism Labour Market Study and Vancouver Island Tourism Labour Market StudyconductedbyRoslynKunin&Associates,Inc.www.go2hr.ca/research
iii. B.C.companyciteslabourshortagesformovetoOntario.CBC News.February3,2008.
iv. NationalAssociationofRealtors.2015NAR Generational Survey,AccessedMay11,2015.www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/03/nar-generational-survey-millennials-lead-all-buyers-most-likely-to-use-real-estate-agent
v. Yconic/Uthink.Millennial Finances & Plans for the Future,AccessedMay11,2015.we.are.yconic.com/Youth%20Insights/Infographic-Millennial-Finances-and-Plans-for-the-Future.aspx#.VVDgZ_lVhBc
vi. Nielsen.Millennials prefer cities to suburbs, subways to driveways,AccessedMay11,2015.www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/millennials-prefer-cities-to-suburbs-subways-to-driveways.html
PewResearch.How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago,AccessedMay11,2015.www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/03/19/how-millennials-compare-with-their-grandparents/
vii.MattKieltyka,MetroVotes:YoungVancouveritesfleeingtomoreaffordablepastures.Metro,January14,2015.
viii. DataderivedfromStatisticsCanadasLabourForceSurvey,CANSIMtable282-0070
ix. WorkB.C.British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook.
x. Source:Landcor,Central1CreditUnion
xi. Vancity,Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and Beyond,March2015.
xii. RichardLittlemore,Vancouvershigh-techmakeover.Globe and Mail,March26,2015.
xiii. ConferenceBoardofCanada.BuildingfromtheGroundUp:EnhancingAffordableHousinginCanada,March2010,1.
xiv. MikeBerry.Housing affordability and the economy: A review of labour market impacts and policy issues,iv.
xv. StatisticsCanada-2011NationalHouseholdSurvey.CatalogueNumber99-012-X2011061.
xvi. StatisticsCanada.Table282-0133-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS),employmentbycensusmetropolitanareabasedon2011censusboundariesandNationalOccupationalClassificationforStatistics(NOC-S),annual(persons),andStatisticsCanada.Table282-0070-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS),wagesofemployeesbytypeofwork,NationalOccupationalClassificationforStatistics(NOC-S),sexandagegroup,annual(currentdollarsunlessotherwisenoted).
Recommended