HEFS workshop, 03/12/2015 - National Weather Service · 2015. 3. 10. · Office of Hydrologic...

Office of Hydrologic Development

Silver Spring, MD

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service SE.1

James Brown

james.brown@hydrosolved.com

Seminar E: review results from

Exercise 4

HEFS workshop, 03/12/2015

Silver Spring, MD

Exercise 4: Q1 (BLKO2)

Q1: Are the MEFP-GEFS forecasts more skilful than climatology?

Silver Spring, MD

Exercise 4: Q1 (BLKO2) answer

Q1: Are the MEFP-GEFS forecasts more skilful than climatology?

A1: In general, substantially so at moderate lead times and higher flows

Silver Spring, MD

Q2: Why does the skill increase rapidly from 42-66 hours then decline?

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Q2: Why does the skill increase rapidly from 42-66 hours then decline?

A2: Early lead times driven by persistent model states (also in reference)

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Exercise 4: Q3 (FTSC1)

Q3: Are the forecasts more skillful at higher or lower flows? Why?

Silver Spring, MD

Exercise 4: Q3 (FTSC1) answer

Q3: Are the forecasts more skillful at higher or lower flows? Why?

A3: High. Good forcing & hydro calibration, plus climatology lacks skill.

Silver Spring, MD

Q4: Focusing on “all data” (red), are the forecasts broadly reliable? How?

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Q4: Focusing on “all data” (red), are the forecasts broadly reliable? How?

A4: Not really. Too many observations fall at high and low ends of forecast

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Q5: What might explain the “U-shape”?

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Q5: What might explain the “U-shape”?

A5: This is classic behavior indicative of lack of spread (over-confidence)

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Q6: What might explain the tendency for higher frequencies in upper tail?

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Q6: What might explain the tendency for higher frequencies in upper tail?

A6: Two things. Lack of spread (both tails) and a conditional bias (too low)

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Q7: Can the forecasts discriminate occurrences from non-occurrences?

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Q7: Can the forecasts discriminate occurrences from non-occurrences?

A7: Yes, much better than climatology. PoD much higher than PoFD.

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Q8: Decision maker: accept 5% PoFD for flows > 19,932 CFS. What PoD?

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Q8: Decision maker: accept 5% PoFD for flows > 19,932 CFS. What PoD?

A8: About 90%, i.e. when event occurred, warnings were correct ~90%

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Additional questions

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Q9: Compare with histogram before EnsPost (SE.13). More reliable after?

Silver Spring, MD

Q9: Compare with histogram before EnsPost (SE.13). More reliable after?

A9: Yes, for “all data”, the EnsPost substantially increases reliability

Silver Spring, MD

Q10: To what extent has EnsPost increased skill of raw forecasts?

Silver Spring, MD

A10: Notably, for low/moderate flows. Not for high flows after ~72 hours.

Silver Spring, MD

Q11: Why would EnsPost perform better at early lead times?

Silver Spring, MD

Q11: Why would EnsPost perform better at early lead times?

A11: Because EnsPost uses prior observation as a predictor (~Adjust-Q).

Silver Spring, MD

A12: As with BLKO2, notably, except for high flows at long lead times.

HEFS workshop, 03/12/2015 - National Weather Service · 2015. 3. 10. · Office of Hydrologic...

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