HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

HEDGEYE 2

DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com.

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 11, 2016

April 11, 2016

CASH U.S.EQUITIES

INT'LEQUITIES

COMMODITIES FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FIXED INCOME

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%.

UST 10YR

USD After falling another -0.4% last week to year-to-date lows of -4.5%, the U.S. Dollar Index is signaling immediate-term oversold in my model for the first time in April (the 30-day correlation between USD and S&P 500 is -0.90).

OIL WTI was up +8% last week after falling -7% in the week prior. This will be as important to watch as anything U.S. Equity Market Beta this week; risk range is signaling a lower-high of $39.99/barrel as Oil Volatility (OVX) signals a higher-low of 43.14.

UST 10YR A whole lot of nothing happening from a sovereign bond market volatility perspective (Long Bond Bulls should enjoy that as it signals growth has not “bottomed”). The UST 10YR Yield was -5 basis points last week and down -55 basis points year-to-date at 1.72%.

U.S. MACRO & HOUSING

CHRISTIAN DRAKE

SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMICS

HEDGEYE 11

• Low Rates

• Negative/Low Equity

• Tighter Credit

• Home Price Spreads

• Demographics

• Investors

INVENTORY: THE WHY OF SUPPLY

HEDGEYE 12

INVENTORY: ON THE LOWS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, NAR, HEDGEYE

HEDGEYE 13

SUPPLY: LONG-TERM LOWS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, NAR

HEDGEYE 14

SUPPLY: RATE RETICENCE

DATA SOURCE: MBA, CENSUS BUREAU, CORELOGIC, REALTYTRAC, HEDGEYE

HEDGEYE 15

SUPPLY: EQUITY OVERHANG

DATA SOURCE: CORELOGIC

HEDGEYE 16

MCAI ↓: TRADE OR TREND? Meanwhile, mortgage credit availability, which had been on a long-term upswing, recently negatively inflected.

DATA SOURCE: MBA,

HEDGEYE 17

SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS Meanwhile, mortgage credit availability, which had been on a long-term upswing, recently negatively inflected.

DATA SOURCE: MBA,

HEDGEYE 18

SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS This is simply a longer-term snapshot of credit availability for some added perspective.

DATA SOURCE: MBA

HEDGEYE 19

SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS Standards remain well below long-term equilibrium.

DATA SOURCE: URBAN INSTITUTE

HEDGEYE 20

SUPPLY: PREMIUM SPREADS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE

HEDGEYE 21

BOOMERS AGING IN PLACE

BOOMERS’ FAMILIES ARE GETTING SMALLER…

BUT THE SHARE LIVING IN SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED

HOMES IS UNCHANGED

HEDGEYE 22

BOOMERS AGING IN PLACE

SOURCE: AARP (2012)

HEDGEYE 23

GEN X IN TROUBLE

HEDGEYE 24

GEN X IN TROUBLE

DATA SOURCE: CENSUS BUREAU

HEDGEYE 25

RENTAL INVENTORY STILL NEGATIVE

DATA SOURCE: FREDDIE MAC

HEDGEYE 26

OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT

GDP: RESIDUAL SEASONALITY

1Q RESIDUAL SEASONALITY NEGATIVE IN 3 OF LAST 5 YEARS

DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE MACRO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS

April 11, 2016

CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL NET LONG POSITIONING

April 11, 2016

MARKET SHARE VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED

April 11, 2016

BACK TO GROWTH SLOWING ALLOCATION

April 11, 2016

UST 10YR U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD

April 11, 2016

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

2,000,000,000

SPX S&P 500 INDEX V

April 11, 2016

SPX S&P 500 INDEX

April 11, 2016

RTY RUSSELL 2000 INDEX

April 11, 2016

RTY RUSSELL 2000 INDEX P

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

April 11, 2016

VIX VOLATILITY INDEX

April 11, 2016

CLA WTI CRUDE OIL

April 11, 2016

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

CLA WTI CRUDE OIL V

April 11, 2016

DXY U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SPOT

April 11, 2016

CRY TR/CC CRB COMMODITY INDEX

April 11, 2016

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

GOLD GOLD SPOT P

April 11, 2016

GOLD GOLD SPOT

April 11, 2016

HGA COPPER

April 11, 2016

2.80 NGA NATURAL GAS SPOT

April 11, 2016

EURO EURO SPOT

April 11, 2016

124 YEN JAPANESE YEN SPOT

April 11, 2016

13,000

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

20,500

22,000

NKY NIKKEI-225 STOCK AVERAGE

April 11, 2016

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

13,000

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

20,500

22,000

NKY NIKKEI-225 STOCK AVERAGE P

April 11, 2016

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

35,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

SHCOMP SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX V

April 11, 2016

SHCOMP SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX

April 11, 2016

IBEX 35 SPANISH CONTINUOUS MARKET

10,000

11,000

April 11, 2016

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

DAX GERMAN STOCK INDEX

April 11, 2016

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

DAX GERMAN STOCK INDEX P

April 11, 2016

UST 2YR U.S. GENERIC GOVT 2-YEAR YIELD

April 11, 2016

HSI HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

April 11, 2016

SENSEX BSE INDIAN SENSEX INDEX

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

April 11, 2016

KOSPI SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX

April 11, 2016

UKX UK FTSE 100 INDEX

April 11, 2016

ASE ATHENS STOCK EXCHANGE GENERAL

April 11, 2016

RTS RUSSIAN RTS INDEX

April 11, 2016

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

DAX GERMAN STOCK INDEX

April 11, 2016

CAC FRANCE CAC 40 INDEX

April 11, 2016

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

20,500

22,000

23,500

FTSE MIB BORSA ITALIANA INDEX

April 11, 2016

POUND BRITISH POUND SPOT

April 11, 2016

PSI 20 PORTUGAL PSI 20 INDEX

April 11, 2016

AS51 AUSTRALIA’S S&P/ASX 200 INDEX

April 11, 2016

RUB RUSSIAN RUBLE SPOT

April 11, 2016

XOP OIL & GAS ETF

55 COA BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURE

April 11, 2016

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION - docs.hedgeye.comdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_Drake_4.11.16.pdf210. 3 mo the...

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