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Heat Roadmap Europe. Professor Henrik Lund Aalborg University. Pre-study 2 Heat Roadmap Europe. Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Planenergi Daniel Trier. Halmstad University Urban Persson - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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36th Euroheat & Power Congress27-28 May 2013, Vienna, Austria
Organised by
Heat Roadmap EuropeProfessor Henrik LundAalborg University
Pre-study 2 Heat Roadmap Europe
Aalborg UniversityDavid Connolly
Brian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd MöllerSteffen Nielsen
Henrik Lund
PlanenergiDaniel Trier
Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonSven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbHJan Grözinger
Thosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet
Motivation
Energy Road Map 2050 (EU commission)Road Map 2050 (McKinsey et.al)The energy report – 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF)Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (IEA)World Energy Outlook (IEA)Deciding the Future – Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050
Consensus/general: ”Combined heat & power (CHP) and district heating (DH) are important”
The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050 communication:“An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and cost-optimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term; how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”
. . . but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system . . .
GIS Mapping Energy System Modelling
District Heating Demands
District Heating Resources
Indicate Costs
BAU (References)
District Heating Alternatives
Results (PES, CO2, Costs)
Methodology
GIS based information
Urban areas (Heating Demands)Power and Heat Generation
Waste ManagementIndustrial waste heat potential
Geothermal heatSolar Thermal
Energy System Analyses Model
CHP
Boiler
Electro-lyser
Heatpump and
electric boiler
PP
RES electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro water Hydro storage
Hydro power plant
H2 storage
Electricity storagesystem
Import/Export
fixed and variable
Electricitydemand
Cooling device
Coolingdemand
Transport demand
Processheat
demandIndustry
Cars
Heat storage
Heat demand
Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MWh/h
Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MWh/
h
Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MWh/h
PV production Sol300 2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kWh/
h
PV production Sol300 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kWh/
h
Wave Power estimated year 1999
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kWh/
h pr
. m w
ave
fron
t
Wave Power estimated year 2001
0
1
2
3
4
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6
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kWh/
h pr
. m w
ave
fron
t
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
Showing DH
benefits in 2 steps
Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%- Increasing CHP- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP
Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)- Industrial waste heat- Waste incineration- Geothermal heat- Large-scale Solar Thermal
Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual EE CCS Nuclear High RE
2030/2050 Modelling
EU CPIPRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
District Heating Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH
Results(PES, CO2, Costs)
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)
HRE1 Conclusion:
50% DH and CHP
Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions
Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050
Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050
Further integration of RES
LESS FUEL
LESS MONEY
MORE EU JOBS
MORE RE
Cost and Jobs:
Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050
In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050
Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR
Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050:
8-9 million man-year in total Approx. 220,000 jobs.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
IEA EU CPI HRE RE EU CPI HRE RE
2010 2030 2050
Ann
ual c
osts
[Bill
ion
€]
Annual EU27 costs for heating buildings in 2010 to 2050
Annual investment costs
Fixed operation costs
CO2 emission costs
Marginal operation cost
Fuel
Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual Energy Efficiency (EU-EE) Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear High Renewable Energy
HRE2: Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?
Energy Modelling
EU-EEPRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
District Heating Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH
Results(PES, CO2, Costs)
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Energy Efficiency (EE)
Key Measures in EU-EE Scenario
High renovation rates for existing buildings due to better/more financing and planned obligations for public buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)
Passive houses standards after 2020
Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)
Strong minimum requirements for energy generation, transmission and distribution including obligation that existing energy generation installations are upgraded to the
EU-EE Scenario
Heat Demand Concerns
Hot water demand decreases by 50% between 2010 and 2050
Specific Heat Demands reduce by 70% between 2010 and 2050
EU-EE Scenario63% Drop in Heat DemandsCost B€300/year 2010-2050
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Add
ition
al C
ost o
f Ene
rgy
Effic
ienc
y M
easu
res
(€/k
Wh
Save
d)
Heat Demand Reduction (%)
HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16%
Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by 32% and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050
Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.
Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future than they do today.
People are not expected to live with one another as much in the future.
At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water is limited due to technical and financial limitations.
HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%
Implementing District Heating
1. Individual boilers are replaced by district heating: 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050 Individual heat pumps are not replaced
2. Individual cooling units are replaced with district cooling. 10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050 Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both used.
Heat Demand by Source
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
GeothermalHeat PumpsDirect ElectricitySolarBiomassGasOilSolidsDistrict HeatingH
eat D
eman
ds (T
Wh/
year
)
Implementing District Heating
3. New DH production facilities are constructed: CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.
4. Additional resources can now be utilised by the district heating network: Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/year Direct geothermal heat: 100 TWh/year Waste incineration: 150 TWh/year Large-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/year Wind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
IndustryWasteGeothermalSolarHeat PumpsBoilerCHP
Dis
trict
Hea
ting
Supp
ly fo
r Res
iden
tial
and
Serv
ices
Bui
ldin
gs (T
Wh/
year
)
23
Results
Brussels, Belgium 24
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Primary Energy Supply & CO2
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh/
year
)
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Em
issi
ons (
X, M
t/yea
r)
Brussels, Belgium 25
EU-EE vs. HRE-EEFossil Fuels
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh/
year
)
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Em
issi
ons (
X, M
t/yea
r)
Brussels, Belgium 26
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Additional Resources
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry Waste Incineration^ Geothermal Large-Scale Solar
Hea
t Ava
ilabl
e fr
om U
ncon
vent
iona
l Re-
sour
ces d
ue to
Dis
trict
Hea
ting*
(TW
h/ye
ar)
Brussels, Belgium 27
EU-EE vs. HRE-EEHeat & Cooling Costs -15%
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System InvestmentsCooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat PlantsFuel CO2
Tota
l Cos
ts fo
r Hea
ting
and
Coo
ling
in
the
Res
iden
tial a
nd S
ervi
ces S
ecto
rs
(B€/
year
)
Case Study: Århus
LegendDistrict heating area
Built up areas
Aarhus municipality
District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density
District heating can be seen as an efficiency measure similar to reductions in heat demand, because it enables the use of fuels in a more efficient way
Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating so that it is competitive with individual solutions
Conclusions
Conclusions (1)
If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can: Reduce the PES Reduce the CO2 emissions Reduce the costs of the
energy system Use more renewable energy
Conclusions (2)
If we implement a lot of energy efficiency measures, then district heating will:
Meet the same goals, ie: Utilise the same amount of
fossil fuels Enable the same CO2 emission
reductions Cost approximately 10% less
www.heatroadmap.eu
How to get the report….
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