Healthy Places: The Community of Tomorrow

Healthy Places: The Community of Healthy Places: The Community of TomorrowTomorrow

USA PopulationUSA Population

20002000– 275 million people275 million people– Median age: 35.8 yrsMedian age: 35.8 yrs

20302030– 351 million people351 million people– Median age: 39 yrsMedian age: 39 yrs

Source: US Census Bureau

USA PopulationUSA Population(in millions)(in millions)

275,000,000

351,000,000

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

2000 2030

Source: US Census Bureau

USA PopulationUSA PopulationMedian AgeMedian Age

36 39

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2030Source: US Census Bureau

USA Population 2000 by Age GroupsUSA Population 2000 by Age Groups

28%

20%

39%

13%

19 and under 20 to 34 35 to 54 65+

Source: US Census Bureau

USA Population 2030 by Age GroupsUSA Population 2030 by Age Groups

26%

19%35%

20%

19 and under 20 to 34 35 to 54 65+

Source: US Census Bureau

USA Population 2000-2030 USA Population 2000-2030 by Age Groupsby Age Groups

19%

12%

22%

47%

19 and under 20 to 34 35 to 54 65+

Source: US Census Bureau

Changes with ageChanges with age

HousingHousing– Housing choices change as people ageHousing choices change as people age– ““Empty Nester” housingEmpty Nester” housing– Assisted LivingAssisted Living

TransportationTransportation– Mobility is decreasedMobility is decreased– Driving a car eventually is not an optionDriving a car eventually is not an option– Decrease of activity can lead to health declineDecrease of activity can lead to health decline

Changing Housing ChoicesChanging Housing Choices

Senior Housing ChoicesSenior Housing Choices

Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the City

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the City

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Age GroupNAHB, 1999

National

Percent Calling Factor Very Important Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Todayif Buying a Home Today

Percent Calling Factor Very Important Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Todayif Buying a Home Today

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Today

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Age Group

Crime Rate

School District

HighwayAccess

Location toShopping

PublicTransportation

NAHB, 1999

Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Today

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Age Group

Crime Rate

School District

HighwayAccess

Location toShopping

PublicTransportation

NAHB, 1999

Problems with Zoning Problems with Zoning

Plans tend to replicate existing Plans tend to replicate existing trendstrendsMany favor large lot, expensive Many favor large lot, expensive housinghousingThey are often barriers to higher They are often barriers to higher density uses and rental unitsdensity uses and rental unitsMarket cannot respond to needs Market cannot respond to needs and changesand changes

Regional Housing Needs Regional Housing Needs AssessmentAssessment

May 2004

The Chicago Region

Cities and Villages of the Region

Population age 30-54 Population age 30-54 2000 Housing Patterns – Chicago 2000 Housing Patterns – Chicago

RegionRegion

52%

19%

29%

SFR Attached Small Apts

Source: Census Bureau

Population 65+Population 65+2000 Housing Patterns - Chicago2000 Housing Patterns - Chicago

50%

14%

22%

14%

SFR Attached Small Apts Large Apts

Source: Census Bureau

Population 65+Population 65+2030 Housing Patterns – Chicago Region2030 Housing Patterns – Chicago Region

41%

39%

35%

71%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

SFR

Attached

Small Apts

Large Apts

A majority of residents in large apartment complexes will be 65 or older

Chicago Region Housing MismatchChicago Region Housing MismatchTrend (NIPC) Projected Need vs. Zoning SupplyTrend (NIPC) Projected Need vs. Zoning Supply

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Projected Need Supply

Apartment/CondominiumApartment/Condominium

$300 - $1500 rent$300 - $1500 rent

urban and suburbanurban and suburban

redev, infill and redev, infill and greenfieldgreenfield

TownhouseTownhouseTrend = 71,000 unitsTrend = 71,000 units

Matched Demand = Matched Demand = 152,000 units152,000 units

$600 - $2000$600 - $2000

urban and suburbanurban and suburban

redev, infill and redev, infill and greenfieldgreenfield

Small Lot Single FamilySmall Lot Single Family

Trend = 24,000 unitsTrend = 24,000 units

Matched Demand = Matched Demand = 202,000 units202,000 units

$700 - $2500$700 - $2500

urban and suburbanurban and suburban

infill and greenfieldinfill and greenfield

Below Market RentBelow Market Rent

Matched Demand = Matched Demand = 73,000 units73,000 units

$0 - $500$0 - $500

urban and suburbanurban and suburban

redev, infill and redev, infill and greenfieldgreenfield

Waukegan StrategiesWaukegan Strategies

Capitalize on Lakefront setting in Corridor Development

Station Area DevelopmentInfill in Urban Neighborhoods

East-West Corridor Enhancement

Downtown Revitalization

Transportation IssuesTransportation Issues

Transportation ProblemsTransportation Problems

Alternatives to DrivingAlternatives to Driving

Pedestrians in the Conventional Suburban Development

supporting alternative modes through urban design

supporting alternative modes through urban design

Pedestrians: 25th Anniversary of the Moonwalk

Solution: Walkable CitiesSolution: Walkable CitiesHousing ChoiceHousing Choice

What makes people walk?What makes people walk?

– Walkable Walkable DistancesDistances

What makes people walk?What makes people walk?

– Practical DestinationsPractical Destinations

What makes people walk?What makes people walk?

– Pleasant and Pleasant and Interesting Interesting Environment, a Environment, a Human ScaleHuman Scale

Pleasant Environment Pleasant Environment

The 2040 Growth ConceptThe 2040 Growth Concept

The 2040 Growth ConceptThe 2040 Growth Concept

The 2040 Growth Concept results The 2040 Growth Concept results in:in:

Less CongestionLess Congestion

Less Transportation investmentLess Transportation investment

More walk, bike, and transit tripsMore walk, bike, and transit trips

What Makes 2040 WorkWhat Makes 2040 Work

– Mixed use designMixed use design

– Density in proximity to commerce and Density in proximity to commerce and transittransit

– Mixed age and income neighborhoodsMixed age and income neighborhoods

RIVER DISTRICT 1999RIVER DISTRICT 1999

VMT per Capita and Transit Ridership per Capita 1990 to 2000

Portland Metro Area

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

DVMT/ Capita

Ridership/ Capita

Challenges for the RegionChallenges for the Region

Project MethodologyProject Methodology

Extensive Public

Participation

Hands-on Workshops

Throughout the Region

TransportationEconomyLand Use

Shared Values, Shared Future

Strategic Land Use Changes In Strategic Land Use Changes In

Relatively Few Areas Provide Relatively Few Areas Provide

Great Benefits to the RegionGreat Benefits to the Region

What can Governors do?What can Governors do?HousingHousing

Develop state or regional housing needs Develop state or regional housing needs analysis – identify how future housing needs analysis – identify how future housing needs change.change.

Monitor local housing markets, look for problems Monitor local housing markets, look for problems caused by undersupply of needed housingcaused by undersupply of needed housing

Develop state or regional housing fair share Develop state or regional housing fair share programs.programs.

Incentives and models for more flexible zoningIncentives and models for more flexible zoning

What can Governors do?What can Governors do?TransportationTransportation

Support well rounded transportation Support well rounded transportation policies – multi modalpolicies – multi modal

Support connecting land use and Support connecting land use and transportationtransportation

Encourage the development of walkable Encourage the development of walkable cities and regionscities and regions

Raise the issues of seniors and mobilityRaise the issues of seniors and mobility

For more Information, go to For more Information, go to www.frego.comwww.frego.com

333 S.W Fifth Avenue, Suite 300 Portland, OR 97204 503-228-3054 Fax 503-525-0478