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Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, Risk Advisory
Henry Wilkinson
National Security Programs and Incident ResponseFederal Aviation Administration
John Anderson
• Eric Kaler Senior Director, Security, Hawaiian Airlines – Moderator• John Cauthen Director of Aviation Security, MedAire• Henry Wilkinson Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, Risk Advisory
• John Anderson National Security Programs and Incident ResponseFederal Aviation Administration
Discussion:
Open source intelligence and risk management
Thank you
• Eric Kaler Senior Director, Security, Hawaiian Airlines • Andrew Nicholson CEO, Osprey Flight Solutions
Session participants:
Mandate:
1. Develop solutions to measure the security of the Aviation Transportation System
2. Propose KPI to manage improvements globally and where necessary
3. Recommend changes in regulatory structure to affect positive outcomes (IOSA/GADM)
Security Working Group (SeG) Program 3:
• High degree of compliance, globally• No value in establishing KPI• Presented Annually at Security Forum and on IATA Security Site
Regulatory Data
Operational Data
Note about TAXONOMY, definitions
Master descriptor Operational descriptor
Aircraft Access Control Aircraft not securedUnauthorized aircraft access (staff or other individuals)Staff with no, not-valid or not-visible identification card on board or in the vicinity of an aircraft
Hold Baggage Reconciliation Hold baggage acceptance (on/off airport)No-show or withdrawn passenger bag not off-loadedBags loaded onto an incorrect aircraft
Aircraft Security Search/Check Suspicious object foundDeficient aircraft security search/check
Weapons/Armed Individuals Transportation Weapon/ammunition in cabin
Weapon/ammunition in hold (unauthorized or procedure violation)
https://www.iata.org/whatwedo/security/Documents/security-descriptors.pdf
• Open Source Data Solutions
Case Studies
14
100% increase in total incidents May-June 2018 57% increase in aviation security incidents from
October to November & December 2018
26 Dec 18: US DHS & TSA announce Manila airport does not meet international aviation security standards set out by ICAO
Philippines – Manila: Ninoy Aquino International Airport (RPLL/MNL)
• Tracking OSINT data across multiple incident types identifies trends and patterns
• Changes in the operational environment identified at specific date points• Operators have the ability visualize and act prior to major regulatory shift• Continued tracking after regulatory shift highlights new operating
environment
IDF Air Activity over Lebanon vs. Airstrikes into Syria during past 6 Months
• Multiple OSINT data sources create a picture of the operating environment• ADS-B transponder tracking• Government press releases• UN information reports• Social media exploitation• Traditional media feeds
• Tracking OSINT data within specific incident types identifies trends• Patterns emerge within the predictive analysis which provides foresight• Operators have the ability set thresholds related to precursor activity
IDF Activity over Lebanon 2018-2019Beirut (OLBA/BEY)
Damascus (OSDI/DAM)
SAM debris recovered
RuAF Il-20 shoot-down
© Osprey Flight Solutions 2019
11 January 2019 Airstrikes
21 January 2019 Airstrikes
07 Jan 19: US National SecurityAdviser meets with Israeli PrimeMinister and talks cover Syria, Iranand Lebanon
21 Jan 19:Remnants of a Syrian conventional SAM recovered in Zahle,Lebanon located 31 miles (50km) directly east of Beirut
29 November 2018 Airstrikes
25-26 December 2018 Airstrikes
26 Dec 18: Syria, Lebanon and Russia claimIDF airstrikes on Damascus threatenedtwo civilian flights landing at Beirut airport
29 Nov 18: IDF claims Iran providingweapons shipments to Hezbollah inLebanon via Beirut airport
September - November 2018 Airstrikes
17 Sep 18: Accidental shoot-downof Russian military IL-20 aircraft byAssad-regime conventional SAMsystem over Eastern MediterraneanSea
Gap Analysis: Despite lull inairstrikes following Russian aircraftdowning, IDF continued overflight ofLebanon and made public claimsabout missile facilities near Beirutairport during October-November2018
19 Nov 18: Lebanon confirms it will notsupply any Iranian airlines with fuel atBeirut airport in line with US sanctions onIranOct 18: Russian S-300 conventional
SAM system component deliveries toSyria
Future Vision• Program 3 to recommend Global Key Performance Indicators (KPI) as Industry
Recommendations, post on IATA Security Site• IATA to promote at ICAO for States incorporation into national security programs• IATA to promote with governments to consider data exchange• As GADM Matures, inform standards, communicate global progress, continue
development of the toolkit
What’s it cost?
What’s in a name?
23
Steve Jackson’s tribute
Source: https://www.asi-mag.com/steves-legacy-empowerment-communication/
Naming proposal for the project:
Steve Jackson AVSEC Toolkit
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