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Greg AutryMerage School of Business, UC
Irvine
EC
RI
Weekly
In
dex
Yie
ld
Sp
read
Yield Invert
s
Yield Invert
s
Source: Greg Autry & Peter Navarro Financial Executive, DEC 09
Yield Invert
s
Yield Invert
s
Yield Invert
s
Yield Invert
s
ECRI ECRI SlidSlideses
ECRI ECRI SlideSlidess
ECRI ECRI SlidSlideses
ISM Manufacturing Index
Existing Home Sales
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
But wait, there’s more!
9 MILLION
10.2 MILLION
Exte
nded
Emer
genc
y
Benefi
ts
“Disc
oura
ge
d W
orke
rs”
College Students - enrollments soars to highest since Vietnam
Millions of cash workers and illegal's - not counted
Millions of “Underemployed” – employed but unable to spend
Those that have jobs are terrified of losing them
If you loose your mid-level management position, you are very unlikely to get it back
Savings climbs
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
There will only be a Christmas if Uncle Sam has bought us one from China on credit
Inventories are again growing dangerously out of sync with jobs and consumer confidence
ECRI
The problem we face is not the business cycle
Our structural bills have come due from: Entitlement programs Decline in STEM education Quarterly attitude = shunned R&D and
investment Horrid trade policy – CHINA, CHINA, CHINA
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