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Bio-Fuel
• Ethanol
• Bio-diesel• Both ethanol & bio-diesel rules
controversial in Farm Bill debate
• Corn prices much lower recently
Corn Supply Bil. Bu.
Year Beg stocks Production Supply
2009/10 1.67 13.10 14.77
2010/11 1.71 12.45 14.18
2011/12 1.13 12.36 13.51
2012/13 0.99 10.78 11.93
2013/14 0.82 13.92 14.78
2014/15 1.24 14.48 15.74
Source: USDA
Corn Usagebil. bu
Source: USDA
Year Feed Food Fuel Exports Total
2009/10 5.13 1.35 4.59 1.98 13.07
2010/11 4.79 1.41 5.02 1.84 13.05
2011/12 4.55 1.43 5.01 1.54 12.53
2012/13 4.33 1.37 4.64 0.73 11.11
2013/14 5.18 1.40 5.12 1.92 13.60
2014/15 5.38 1.41 5.12 1.75 13.66
Corn UsageCrop 2004 2010 2013 2014
Feed 57.8% 36.7% 38.2% 39.1%
Food 12.8% 10.8% 10.3% 10.3%
Exports 17.1% 14.0% 14.2% 12.9%
Ethanol 12.4% 38.5% 37.3% 37.7%
US32%
Argentina16%
Brazil18%
Other33%
World Corn Exports2012 Crop Year
Source: USDA
US39%
Argentina12%Brazil
18%
Other31%
World Corn Exports2014 Crop Year
Source: USDA
Other mostly Russia and Ukraine
15 25 35 45 55 65 75
Days Carryout
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Avg
Far
m P
rice
'04'05
'06
'07 '08'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
US Corn Farm Price vs Days Carryout2004-2014 crop years
Ethanol• 213 plants operating
• 5 under construction or expanding
• Current 14.4 bil. gal/yr – 5.1 bil. bu.
• Many were closed until corn price fell
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Jul-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Dec-090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Verasun EnergyAventine Renewable EnergyPacific Ethanol
Ethanol Company Stock PricesJuly 06- Jan10
PA Corn CropsYear Mil. Bu. Yield
2005 117.1 122
2006 117.1 122
2007 121.5 124
2008 117.0 133
2009 131.6 143
2010 116.5 128
2011 106.6 111
2012 132.0 132
2013 164.3 155
2014 152 152
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