GPS (Governance, Peace and Security) initiative: A focus ... · Nb. of HH (final) 10,303 8,804 -...

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The SHaSA (Strategic Harmonisation of Statistics in Africa) GPS (Governance, Peace and Security) initiative:

A focus on Corruption

Mireille RAZAFINDRAKOTO François ROUBAUD

DIAL-IRD

Meeting Task Force on Corruption Measurement (EGM) UNODC - UNDP

Vienna 12-14 October, 2016

I.- Governance survey modules: historical background

II.- GPS-SHaSA Initiative: scope, lessons & illustrations

Conclusion

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2 veins/approaches in measuring corruption through surveys

I.- (economic) Crime Surveys : ICVS Origin: Developed Countries II.- Governance Surveys : IGMS Origin: Developing Countries

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A focus on governance (after structural adjustment)

I.- Research: institutions matters!

II.- Policies: MDGs, PRSPs

A massive need for measurement

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5

Coton

ou

Oua

ga

Abidjan

Tana

Bam

ako

Niamey

Dak

ar

Lomé

Ave

rage

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Population who believes that making bribe is

acceptable

General population * (% from Household (HH) survey)

Expert panel (what they think could be the % of population whobelieves that making a bribe is acceptable)

Mirror Survey

HH Survey

How far can we trust the experts’ opinion on corruption?

(Razafindrakoto & Roubaud (2010), World Development)

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The global lessons 1: Content

Advantages of household sample surveys

Transparency of measurement procedures

Representativeness, precision, robustness

Quantification

Comparability of indicators over time.

In-depth policy-oriented analyses

More appropriate than international indicators and aggregates (complementary approach).

Both objective (behaviour, actual experiences) and subjective information (perception, satisfaction)

Monitoring and relating the two fundamental dimensions of these phenomena.

Socio-economic disaggregation

These two dimensions can be combined with traditional variables related to the socio-economic characteristics of individuals and households (gender, income/poverty, occupation, ethnic group, etc.).

Possibility to disaggregate information between different population categories (gender, poverty, ethnic groups, discriminated people, etc.

Spatial disaggregation (infra-national representativeness; Benin, Madagascar, Peru, Ecuador)

To produce regional indicators (relevance for piloting decentralization process, assisting local democracy

International comparability

Published in Academic Journals (World development, International Statistical Review, OECD Journal on Development, African Statistical Journal, etc.)

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The global lessons 2: Process

Ownership

Reliability

Sustainability

Conducted by National Statistical

Institute

Integration in the National Statistical

System

Relevance

Systematic Presentation /

Publication of the result wider public

Validation

Democratic debate demand

Bottom-up approach Investment in capacity

building

Light, flexible tool Reconductible time-series

Marginal cost HH survey « Voicing »

empowerment, accountability

Supply side Demand side Interactions

The Best Way to Relay the Voice of the Citizens

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Example 1: Madagascar (1-2-3 Survey) Incidence of bureaucratic corruption, political and economic conditions

Antananarivo, 1995-2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2010

Corruption Civil servants real wage

Political

crisis

Active anti-

corruption policy

Political

crisis

Updated from Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2003), ”Wage and corruption: the case of Madagascar”, Global

Corruption Report 2003, Transparency International, pp. 292-294.

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Example 2: West Africa (1-2-3 Survey)

Incidence and determinants of petty corruption in French-speaking Africa

Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2004), ”Daily corruption in French speaking Africa”, Global Corruption

Report 2004, Transparency International, pp.346-348.

Niger Mada

gascar

Benin Togo Mali Senegal Côte d’Ivoire

Rate (total population) * 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 9.1% 10.3% 10.9% 16.5%

No contact with the administration 33.0% 23.5% 43.1% 41.1% 37.3% 19.0% 28.7%

Rate (those who have been in contact

with the administration)

12.1% 11.0% 15.3% 15.5% 16.4% 13.4% 23.1%

1st step: contact with administration

Gender (woman)

Education

Age

Inactivity

Speak French

--

++

++

--

ns

ns

++

ns

ns

ns

--

++

++

ns

ns

--

++

ns

ns

ns

--

++

ns

--

++

--

++

++

-

++

--

ns

ns

ns

++

2nd step : Risk factors /corruption

Gender n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (woman)

Age -- n.s. -- n.s. -- n.s. n.s.

Ethnic group/nationality n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (Diola) -- (Ivorian)

Religion n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (Catholic) n.s. n.s. -- (Catholic)

Education n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.

Income + n.s. ++ n.s. ++ ++ ++

Civil servant - n.s. -- n.s. -- - -

Sample 6,330 3,020 6,330 1,900 4,530 6,590 4,760

Concordant pairs 70% 59% 71% 67% 65% 65% 63%

Sources: 1-2-3 surveys, PARSTAT, WAEMU 2001-2003 for West Africa and INSTAT/MADIO 2003 for

Madagascar.

Notes: Logit models with correction of the selection bias associated with contact with the administration. ++

(resp. --): significant coefficient (positive resp. negative) at the 5% level. + (resp. -): idem at the 10% level. n.s.:

not significant at the 5% level.

Main problems of the country, 2002-2014

(Percentage of the population 18 years of age and over)

59.7

50.6

44.5 44.2

43.1 41.6 37.1

41.1

38.2 38.0

35.3 33.4

24.9

11.9 10.9

8.6 8.7 12.6

13.8 12.1

13.8

14.2 13.4 14.4 13.6

12.6

32.4

16.8 16.9

21.4 21.1

18.8 17.9

21.3 23.8

26.1

27.0

29.4

36.5

11.9

6.8 5.7

8.4

14.8

10.9 8.3

11.8

15.8

23.9

40.9

51.5

56.8

75.0

64.7

57.2 55.9

48.4

41.9

32.1 33.7

28.9 26.0

23.2 21.2

16.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Corrupción

Falta de Seguridad Ciudadana -

Delincuencia

Pobreza

Falta de Empleo

Example 3: Peru (ENAHO Survey)

Note: Question with multiple answer.

1 / From 2002 to 2006, was asked by the "proliferation of crime". From 2012 he asks only for the 'crime‘

Source: National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI) - National Household Survey. Module: Governance, democracy and transparency.

Mala calidad de la educación estatal

Example 3: Peru (ENAHO Survey)

Herrera J., Roubaud F. (2004), ”Corruption and Poverty in Peru”, Global Corruption Report 2004, Transparency International, pp.343-345.

Corruption and poverty at population level

Expense

Quintiles

Incidence (total number

of individuals)

Incidence (individuals in

contact with the government)

Average Cost

(soles per capita/year) Pressure from

corruption (% of food expenses)

Reason for not filing a

complaint : fear of reprisals, do not know how to proceed

I 2.6% 3.1% 4.8 0.8% 49.3%

II 4.4% 5.3% 8.4 0.9% 41.1%

III 5.0% 5.8% 7.2 0.7% 22.5%

IV 6.2% 7.1% 21.6 1.4% 30.9%

V 7.9% 8.9% 33.6 1.2% 29.5%

Poverty condition

Non-poor 6.8% 7.9% 69 1.3% 29.6%

Poor 3.9%*** 4.6%*** 15*** 0.7% 36.5%***

Total 5.2% 6.1% 48 1.1% 32.3%

Source: Estimate by authors based on ENAHO 2002, IV quarter, INEI. 18,598 households.

Corruption in Vietnam :

the blank page mystery

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Cling J.-P., Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền, Nguyễn Hữu Chí, Phan

T. Ngọc Trâm, Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2010), The

Informal Sector in Vietnam: A focus on Hanoi and Ho

Chi Minh City, Hanoi: The Gioi Editions, 247p..

14 Source: Youth Integrity Survey 2010,

Vietnam.

15 Source: Youth Integrity Survey

2010, Vietnam.

Dang Giang, Nguyen Thi Kieu Vien, Nguyen Thuy Hang, Razafindrakoto M.,

Roubaud F., Salomon M. (2011), Youth Integrity in Vietnam, Transparency

International, Hanoi, June.

• Statistics on governance, peace & security (GPS) are a governance tool and indication of data sovereignty

• Relevant to Africa’s measuring targets of new Goal 16 on “justice, peace and accountable institutions” in SDGs

• In My World survey (2m Africans in 7m respondents):

ohonest and responsible government rated 4th

oprotection against crime and violence rated 7th

• Foundational contribution to establish of Praia City Group on governance in UN Statistical Commission

• GPS an important aspect of Agenda 2063 in Africa

• Helpful contribution to reworking of APRM measures

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The GPS-SHaSA Initiative 2012-2015 (NSOs ownership; African Union leadership; UNDP Support; DIAL-IRD scientific assistance)

What is measured?

The SHaSA instruments

on GPS are aligned with

the African Union

Charter on Democracy,

Elections & Governance (signed by 45 countries)

STG1

Harmonization and

institutionalization

of Governance,

Peace and Security

(GPS) statistics

The SHaSA initiative Strategy for the

Harmonization of Statistics

in Africa

African Union Commission (AUC),

Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)

African Statistical Coordination Committee (ASCC)

• Policy frameworks - AU Charter on Democracy, Elections & Governance - AU Protocol on the Establishment of the Peace & Security Council - African Charter on Statistics, SHaSA Priority Themes and Work Program

4 instruments • Indicators - Factual and attitudinal - Core set + country-specific • Users - Continental (APRM, Early Warning System, Peace & Security Council, African Governance Platform) - Regional (RECs) - National (plans, post MDG, governance strategies, conflict prevention...)

Add-on Governance module on regular HH surveys

Add-on Peace & Security module on regular HH surveys

Administrative instrument on Governance

Administrative instrument on Peace & Security

Pilot countries Self-start countries Committed to implement

Cape Verde§ (2013-15) Benin (2015) Chad

Côte d’Ivoire* (2015) Burundi†* (2013/14) Congo-Brazzaville

Cameroon† (2015) Cote d’lvoire* (2015) Dem. Rep. of Congo

Kenya*† (2013-15) Madagascar (2015) Gabon

Malawi* (2015) Mali*§ (2013-16) Guinea-Conakry

Tunisia* (2014) Niger

* Official report issued Uganda* (2013) Senegal † Admin-based statistics Seychelles § Institutionalization (two iterations or +) Togo

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Pilot Countries Other Countries (self-starters)

Cameroon Cap

Verde Kenya Malawi Tunisia Benin Burundi

Côte

d’Ivoire Mali Uganda

Support Survey

Name of the Survey ECAM 4 IMC GATS WMS GPD EMICoV ECVMB ENV EMOP UNGBS

Type of Survey HLS/123 HLS/123 Specific HLS/123 GoV HLS/123 HLS /123 HLS/123 HLS/123 GoV

Number of PSUs 1,024 n.a. Test 699 298 911 415 1 068 911 375

Nb. of HH (theoretical) 12,848 9,918 Pilot 12,700 4,470 22,080 7,128 12,816 5,466 3,750

Nb. of HH (final) 10,303 8,804 - 14,198 n.a. 21,402 7,006 n.a. n.a. n.a.

GPS-SHaSA Module

Year of Survey 2014 2013-15 2013 2015 2014 2015 2013-14 2015 2014-15 2013

Unit of analysis Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult

Nb. of HH (from Support Surv) 50% 50% - All All All All 25% 100 33%

Nb. of individuals/household 1 n.a. 1 1 n.a. All All 1 <3 1

Nb. of individuals (in database) 5,102 3,771 74 14,198 14,000 39,991 13,116 3,082 13,835 1,036

Questionnaire Integral Integral Integral Partial Partial+ Integral+ Integral Integral Integral Partial+

Nb. of questions asked 61 60 60 n.d. n.a.+ 61+ 61 60 60 59+

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% Countries Burundi Côte d’Ivoire Mali 2014 Mali 2015 Ouganda

Governance

Satisfaction with democracy 1,1 0,0 2,2 0,0 0,0 Victim of corruption 0,8 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0

Peace and Security Feeling of safety 0,5 0,0 2,3 0,0 0,0 Threaten with firearm 0,6 0,0 2,8 0,0 0,0

Labour market Activity Rate 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,0 n.d. Salarisation Rate 0,0 0,0 n.d. n.d. n.d. Unemployment Rate 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,0 n.d.

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Burundi Côte d'Ivoire Mali 2014 Mali 2015 Uganda

Governance

Satisfaction with democratcy 77,0% 56,4% 58,7% 57,5% 72,1%

[75,5 ; 78,5] [53,5 ; 59,2] [56,0 ; 61,4] [55,0 ; 60,0] [68,5 ; 75,5]

Contact with administration 80,4% 40,6% 11,5% 15,5% 29,0%

[78,4 ; 82,3] [37,9 ; 43,3] [10,2 ; 12,8] [14,1 ; 17,1] [25,9 ; 32,1]

Victime of corruption 4,4% 16,4% 7,5% 4,0% 18,0%

[3,7 ; 5,2] [14,3 ; 18,8] [8,7 ; 12,8] [3,4 ; 4,6] [15,3 ; 21,1]

Confidence in administration 86,6% 72,3% 67,4% 62,2% 61,9%

[85,3 ; 87,8] [69,7 ; 74,8] [64,7 ; 70,1] [59,9 ; 64,4] [58,2 ; 65,5]

Peace & Security

Perception of armed conflict threat 55,2% 47,2% 53,7% 59,4% 39,0%

[53,2 ; 57,2] [43,7 ; 50,7] [49,8 ; 57,5] [55,9 ; 62,8] [34,7 ; 43,6]

Victime of physical assault 4,3% 7,1% 1,7% 0,6% n.d.

[3,8 ; 5,0] [5,7 ; 8,8] [1,2 ; 2,2] [0,5 ; 0,8] -

Existance of structures to solve conflict 84,9% 65,5% 74,9% 67,1% 5,7%

[83,4 ; 86,3] [62,0 ; 68,7] [71, 8 ; 77,8] [64,3 ; 69,8] [4,3 ; 7,5]

Feeling of Insecurity 7,8% 29,1% 17,5% 31,6% 53,2%

[6,8 ; 8,9] [26,4 ; 31,9] [15,5 ; 19,8] [29,3 ; 34,1] [48,8 ; 57,6]

Labour Market

Activity Rate 88,0% 56,3% 69,8% n.a. n.a.

[87,2 ; 88,8] [53,5 ; 59,0] [68,0 ; 71,5] - -

Salarisation Rate 7,5% 14,9% n.a. n.a. n.a.

[6,7 ; 8,4] [12,8 ; 17,3] - - -

Unemployment Rate 2,4% 3,5% 5,2% n.a. n.a.

[2,1 ; 2,8] [2,6 ; 4,6] [4,4 ; 6,1] -. -.

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Tout à fait Plutôt Pas

vraiment

Pas du tout Tout à fait Plutôt Pas

vraiment

Pas du tout Tout à fait Plutôt Pas

vraiment

Pas du tout

se sent libre - liberté d'expression se sent libre - liberté d'association se sent libre - choix de vote/ élection

Resp

ecct

of

libert

ies –

Genera

l A

pp

recia

tion (in

%)

Personal Experience

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

jamais parfois souvent toujours

% o

f th

ose

wh

o t

hin

k th

at t

he

po

litic

ian

s ta

ke in

to

acco

un

t th

e o

rdin

ary

citi

zen

dem

and

s

How the National Deputies listen to the population?

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pas du tout Peu probable Plutôt probable Très probable

% o

f th

ose

wh

o f

ear

the

gen

eral

th

reat

of

crim

inal

vi

ole

nce

in t

he

cou

ntr

y

Probability to be personally victim of crime

Beaucoup Assez

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In % Malawi Mali Uganda Burundi Côte d'Ivoire

Presidency/Government 65.8 48.6 57.3 41.2 43.5

NGO/ Inter. Institution/ Research

center 14.9 34.9 23.0 33.5 39.8

Others 19.3 16.5 19.7 25.3 16.7

Total 100 100 100 100 100

30

31

32

33

39

50

51

71.5

28.8

14

11

29

7.5

10.4

15

3

3

1.1

6.1

6

6

2

3.2

6.4

26

30

15

16.7

44.1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Burundi (3% incidence)

Mali (8% incidence)

Uganda (19% incidence)

Côte d'Ivoire (18% incidence)

Malawi (3% incidence)

Police

Health

Justice

Tax

Other

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% of victims Quintiles of expenditures/consumption unit

(personally or a member of the HH) Total 1st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile

Incidence (total population) 3.7 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.5

No contact with the administration 16.6 20.5 15.8 14.9 16.7 15.9

Incidence (population in contact) 4.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.6 5.4

In 1,000 FBU (per year)

Average amount (HH in contact)

57.4

28.5

26.0

17.9

25.4

126.7

Median amount (HH in contact) 10.0 7 10 5 5 20

% Expenditures (HH in contact) 2.1 3.8 1.8 1.1 1.1 2.5

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Perception of corruption in Mali : evolution between 2014 and 2015

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

en

%

Pas du tout Pas vraiment Assez Beaucoup Solde d'opinion

Sources : Enquêtes EMOP, Modules GPS-SHaSA, 2014 & 2015, INSTAT, Mali ; calculs des auteurs.

Note : la question est formulée comme suit : Dans quelle mesure les personnes suivantes sont-elles impliquées dans la corruption ?

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The GPS-SHaSA initiative is already making the difference in three respects:

Pushing further the frontiers of statistics (the big push for survey based indicators on GPS)

Promoting democratic governance in LDCs and over the world

Reverting the usual North-South methodological transfers to South-North, and in particular Africa-Rest of the world

A unique opportunity to catch

Extensions, next steps:

Scaling up in Africa (after pilot phase) : any donors in the room?

Enlarging the geographical scope on the methodological component (Praia Group: Done!)

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