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GP RichardsonApril 2008
1
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Advances in System DynamicsGroup Model Building
George P. RichardsonRockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany, SUNY
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Outline of Remarks
• Origins of the current work• System dynamics group model
building• Recent work with Eden and
Ackermann• Scottish Health System
• Transportation Security Administration
• The Emerging Approach
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Colleagues
• Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann, Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow
• John Bryson, Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota
• David Andersen, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany• Thirteen years of collaborations and thought, enlivened by
skiing and hiking together
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Recent Fruits of our Efforts
• Andersen, DF, JM Bryson, GP Richardson, C Eden, F Ackermann, C Finn, 2006. Integrating Models of Systems Thinking into Strategic Planning Education and Practice: The Thinking Persons Institute Approach. Journal of Public Affairs Education,12,3 (Summer 2006): 265-293.
• C Eden, F Ackermann, JM Bryson, GP Richardson, DF Andersen, 2008. Integrating modes of policy analysis and strategic management practice: requisite elements and dilemmas. Journal of the Operational Research Society (forthcoming 2008).
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Events and DecisionsEvents and Decisions
Patterns of BehaviorPatterns of Behavior
System StructureSystem Structure
ReactiveReactive
AdaptiveAdaptive
GenerativeGenerative
Incr
easi
ng
leve
rage
Incr
easi
ng
leve
rage
A Glimpse of the Systems Perspective
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
New York, Chicago & Philadelphia, 1800-2000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
180018101820183018401850186018701880189019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000
Philadelphia
Chicago
New York
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Prejudice and Minority Achievement (Myrdal, Merton)
Prejudice
Discrimination
Opportunities for the minority
Achievements of the minority
–
+
–
+
(R)Prejudice
Aspirations of the minority
Minority efforts to achieve
Minority perceptions of the gap+
+
–
+
(B)Striving
+(R)
Hope or despair
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Stocks, Flows, and Feedback Loops in a Gasoline Crisis
-
+
Desiredgas pervehicle
Desiredpurchase
rate
Desired purchasesto correct gas in
vehicles
Perceivedavailability
Efforts to limitpurchases
Desiredpurchases
to cover use
Averageuse rateStation
coverage
Use rateShipment
ratePurchase
rateCas in carsGas in
Stations
-
+
Desiredgas pervehicle
Desiredpurchase
rate
Desired purchasesto correct gas in
vehicles
Perceivedavailability
Efforts to limitpurchases
Desiredpurchases
to cover use
Averageuse rateStation
coverage
Use rateShipment
ratePurchase
rateCas in carsGas in
Stations
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
What is Group Modeling?
• A form of group decision support, involving a group of stakeholders with a complex problem• Group facilitation
• Model building and refinement in public
• Simulation of scenarios and options
• Extensive facilitated discussion and analysis
• Facilitated policy design and decisions
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Albany Teamwork Approach
• Facilitator / Elicitor• Modeler / Reflector• Process coach• Recorder• Gatekeeper
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Components of the Process
• Problem definition meeting• Group modeling meeting• Formal model formulation• Reviewing model with model building team• Rolling out model with the community• Working with flight simulator• Making change happen
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
A Typical Room GMB Session
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Strathclyde Group Explorer Approach
• Facilitator / Elicitor• “Chauffer” / Analyst• Participants at networked computers
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Group Explorer Facilitated Strategic Planning
• Issue elicitation• Laddering up to “Own Goals”• Stakeholder power and interest grid• Stakeholder goals and sanctions• Prioritizing strategic priorities• Key performance indicators• Agreed policies and strategies in context
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Strategy Workshop in Scotland
• Borders Region of Scotland concerned with provision of care for persons with Dementia
• Consortium of 28 Health Care Practitioners and Managers formed the strategy planning team
• Workshop in January of 2007 Explored Innovation approaches integrating
• Workshops designed and used innovative Group Model Building scripts that integrate two different approaches to strategy making
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Scotland Workshop: a View of the Room
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Scotland Workshop: a View of the Room
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Picturing Complexity
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Picturing Complexity
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Picturing Complexity
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Initial GE Issues Map
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Themes in the Issue Map
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Graphs Over Time to Focus the Discussion
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Linking Comments on Graphs Over Time
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Contributing a Systems View:Screens for the model (right) and DE (left)
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Flow of People in the Dementia Health System
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Pressure Points: “Who would do what”?
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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“Who would do what?” to decrease inflow to community care
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
“Who Would Do What?” in Three Pressure Points
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
More Possible Pressure Points to Discuss
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Summary of Synergies in the Scotland Workshop
• Issue maps began the effort to focus the conversation• Graphs-over-time pulled thinking about issues toward
long-term patterns• Stock-and-flow map stimulated system-wide
understandings, taking thinking across boundaries• DE maps captured detailed observations, insights, and
claims throughout the entire process
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
TSA Aviation Security Simulator
• Contract Between Transportation Security Administration and Argonne National Labs
• Argonne, Sandia, and Los Alamos as part of Tri-Labs collaboration
• UAlbany as “special teams” subcontractor for Group Model Building
• Eden and Ackermann invited to expand team
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Initial Issues identified
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Issues from Stakeholder Perspectives
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Initial Policy Priorities
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Graphs over time drawn by the participants Graphs over time drawn by the participants
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Collecting Comments on Graphs Over Time
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Concept Model
Part timescreeners
Hiring rate
Totalpersonnel
Desiredpersonnel
Part timersquitting
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Concept Model
Part timescreeners
Full timescreeners
Promotingto full time
Hiring rate
Full timersquitting
Frac fulltimersleaving p month
Totalpersonnel
Fraction full time
Desiredpersonnel
Part timersquitting
Desired full timescreeners
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Concept Model
Part timescreeners
Full timescreeners
Promotingto full time
Hiring rate
Full timersquitting
Time to becomefull time
Frac fulltimersleaving p month
Totalpersonnel
Fraction full time
Desiredpersonnel
Part timersquitting
Desired full timescreeners
Dissatisfactionleading to quits
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Concept Model BehaviorsPart time screeners
60,000
30,000
0
0 15 30 45 60Time (p month)
Part time screeners : TSA1 peoplePart time screeners : TSA2 peoplePart time screeners : TSA3 people
Full time screeners40,000
20,000
0
0 15 30 45 60Time (p month)
Full time screeners : TSA1 peopleFull time screeners : TSA2 peopleFull time screeners : TSA3 people
Hiring rate20,000
10,000
0
0 15 30 45 60Time (p month)
Hiring rate : TSA1 people/monthHiring rate : TSA2 people/monthHiring rate : TSA3 people/month
Time to become full time60
30
0
0 15 30 45 60Time (p month)
Time to become full time : TSA1 monthTime to become full time : TSA2 monthTime to become full time : TSA3 month
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Eliciting TSA Model Structure
• “Seed” for elicitation was backbone stock and flow structure from Concept Model as elaborated by group
• Used “variable” pack available from “key variable” list made up in the morning
• Ability to link model structure to Group Explorer issue elicitation and key variable list explicitly
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Final Policy Priorities (red=short term, green=long term)
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Summary of Synergies in TSA Workshop• GE maps used to elicit initial issues• Graphs-over-time defining the problem
dynamically• GE used to map stakeholders and scenarios• GE phrases turned into variables to seed
dynamic model structure• GE creating rich micro view; SD creating
holistic macro view• GE used to create rich documentation as
modeling discussion developed
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Where is This Leading?
• Duality of Vensim and Decision Explorer Maps• Seamless approach to client groups• Ability to “zoom lenses” between micro and
macro views• New support for model formulation and
documentation• New products that enhance value to clients• Eventually perhaps integrated software suites
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Our Goals in Group Strategy Support
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
A Portion of Our Analysis of Scripts and Products Leading to Implementable Actions that will Work
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Example of Scripts and Products Working Together Toward Key Performance Indicators
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Issue Elicitation Leads to …
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Graphs Over Time Lead to …
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GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Magic: Moving Fluently between Macro and Micro
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
…between Micro and Macro
GP RichardsonApril 2008
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
For Further Reading• Eden, C. and F. Ackermann (1998). Making Strategy: The Journey of Strategic Management.
London. Sage.
• Bryson, J. M. (2004). Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations, Third Edition. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
• Scripts for Group Model Building. System Dynamics Review 13,2 (summer 1997), D.F. Andersen and G.P. Richardson.
• Teamwork in Group Modeling Building, with David F. Andersen. System Dynamics Review 11,2 (summer 1995).
• Using simulation models to address ‘What If’ questions about welfare reform, A.A. Zagonel, J. W. Rohrbaugh, G.P. Richardson, and D.F. Andersen, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 23,4 (2004): 890-901.
• Anatomy of a group model-building intervention: building dynamic theory from case study research. L.F. Luna-Reyes, I.J. Martinez-Moyano, T.A. Pardo, A.M. Cresswell, D.F. Andersen and G.P. Richardson. System Dynamics Review 22,4 (winter 2006):291-320.
Recommended