Going s ustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green?

Going sustainable in the 21st Century - how quickly will the world go green?Prof Ray Wills

Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies

Leader Western AustraliaBlue Australasia

Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia

Deputy Chair, and Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia

Adoption rate of technology

What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on our businesses?

A natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ The transition to new technology will be more rapid

where changes are favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.

Are you ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms?Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

(Niels Bohr)

Roger’s diffusion curve

Wake up and smell the roses

Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)

NY Times

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers

Zoepf 2011

Renewable energy growth

Data IEA

Potential EV growth

Declining price on solar

Global renewables

Global renewables 2014 +>

Global energy – fossil and renewables

Renewables and storage in Africa Developing nations with modest domestic power needs

means storage may already be economically affordable.

Technology adoption rates

Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication

between consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations/CFOs Regulation Energy security