Global Futures and Strategic Foresight - Goals,...

Goals, Progress andPlans for 2015 – 2016

Keith Wiebe

Strategic Foresight Conference

Washington DC, 7 November 2014

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight is a CGIAR initiative to improve our understanding of future challenges to

agricultural productivity, food security and environmental sustainability – and to explore options to address them

With support from BMGF, PIM and CCAFSas well as AgMIP, USAID and USDA

Objectives

1. Improved system of integrated biophysical and economic modeling tools

2. Stronger community of practice for scenario analysis and ex ante impact assessment

3. Improved assessments of alternative global futures

4. To inform research, investment and policy decisions in the CGIAR and its partners

1. Improved modeling tools

• Complete recoding of IMPACT

• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity

• Land allocation to crops

• Improved water & crop models

• New data management system

• Modular framework

• Training

2. Stronger community of practice

• 12 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF• IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA,

ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish

• Collaboration with other leading global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

3. Improved assessments

• IMPACT baseline

• AgMIP global economic assessments

• CCAFS regional scenarios

• Analyses by centers

• GFSF promising technologies

Rainfed Maize (Africa)

Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)

Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)

Rainfed Potato (Asia)

Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)

Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)

Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

3. Improved assessments

• Investing in data for improved modeling• Sika Gbegbelegbe, CIMMYT

• Foresight analysis and ex ante assessment of promising technologies to inform decision making• Swamikannu Nedumaran, ICRISAT

3. Improved assessments

• IMPACT baseline

• AgMIP global economic assessments

• CCAFS regional scenarios

• Analyses by centers

• GFSF promising technologies

• Role of ag technologies

• Africa regional reports

Rainfed Maize (Africa)

Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)

Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)

Rainfed Potato (Asia)

Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)

Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)

Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

Challenges

1. Models and data• Variability, production systems, biotic stresses, gender

2. Institutional• Integrating within and across centers

• Supporting an expanding network

3. Analytical• Harmonizing for comparison vs diverse interests

4. Linking with decision makers• From tools to analysis to outputs to outcomes

Plans for 2015-16Center Focus areas

CIAT Cassava, beans, rice; tropical forages?

CIMMYT Pests and diseases for maize and wheat, economy-wide effects

CIP Potato and sweet potato, late blight, virus models

ICARDA Conservation agriculture technologies for wheat, policy dialogue

ICRAF Agro-forestry systems, large-area crop model

ICRISAT Pearl millet, chickpea, pests and diseases, gender

IFPRI Livestock and fish models, land use, variability, nutrition

IITA Cassava, cowpea, maize, soybean

ILRI Livestock module, vaccines, feed and genetic technologies

IRRI C4 rice, submergence tolerant rice

IWMI Groundwater model and scenarios in India, China, Africa

WorldFish Fish model, global and national supply and demand scenarios

Additional considerations

• Broadening from original focus on “virtual crops”• Livestock, fish commodities

• Resources, systems, management practices

• Alternate socioeconomic and emissions pathways

• Shared interests, collaboration across centers as well as with external partners

• Training activities

• Innovation in methods and tools to fit the question

• Ownership, uptake and sustainability

• More attention to end users

4. Informing decision making

• CGIAR centers

• CRPs• RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize,

Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish…

• National partners• MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan

Africa, Central Asia

• Regional organizations• ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR

• International organizations and donors• OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA

New web tool coming soon…

Thank you

k.wiebe@cgiar.org