View
0
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Global Commodity Markets and Food Security
John Baffes
• Food commodity markets
• Evolution of “food security”
• Incidence of food insecurity
• Food insecurity today
Outline
• Food commodity markets
• Evolution of “food security”
• Incidence of food insecurity
• Food insecurity today
Outline
New frontiers and opportunities
Global commodity prices
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100Post-recession
peak 2011:Q1
Post-recession
trough 2016:Q1
Energy
Metals
Agriculture
Source: World Bank
Note: Last observation is August 2018.
New frontiers and opportunities
Key food commodity prices, 2011-18
Source: World Bank
Note: Last observation is August 2018.
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Wheat Maize
$ US/metric ton
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Soybeans Rice
$ US/metric ton
New frontiers and opportunities
Stock-to-use ratios for grains
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Maize Rice Wheat
Ratio
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (WASDE).Notes: Based on the September 2018 data release.
New frontiers and opportunities
The 1974 price spike “triggered” the food security debate
Source: World Bank.
0
40
80
120
160
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Agriculture
Metals
Energy
Price indexes, constant US$ (2010 = 100)
1974World Food
Summit
• Food commodity markets
• Evolution of “food security”
• Incidence of food insecurity
• Food insecurity today
Outline
New frontiers and opportunities
Defining food security
“Food security” is a descriptive concept first articulated in the area of food
policy in the mid-1970s. The concept has evolved and expanded from a focus
on food supply at the national level.
For much of the twentieth century, discussion of malnutrition focused on the
lack of sufficient caloric intake.
In recent decades, there has been growing attention to the “triple burden of
malnutrition”: (i) chronic undernourishment; (ii) micronutrient deficiencies –
“hidden hunger” – and (iii) obesity.
There is greater awareness of the complexity of malnutrition which increasingly
includes over- and under-consumption of calories.
Source: FAO (2016), The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets, p. 18.
New frontiers and opportunities
Evolution of “food security”
World Food Summit (1974): “Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to
sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices.”
FAO (1983): “Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food
that they need.”
World Bank (1986): “Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life.”
World Food Summit (1996): “Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels
[is achieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
FAO (2001): “Food security [is] a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and
economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life.”
Source: FAO and World Bank
New frontiers and opportunities
Food security and UN’s SDG 2
UN (2015): Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2) focuses on ending hunger, achieving food security and improved
nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture. In particular:
SDG 2.1: End hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations,
including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round by 2030.
SDG 2.2: End all forms of malnutrition by 2030, including achieving, by 2025, the internationally agreed targets on
stunting and wasting in children under 5 years of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant
and lactating women and older persons.
SDG 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women,
indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other
productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets and opportunities for value addition and non-
farm employment.
SDG 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase
productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change,
extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
SDG 2.5: By 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and
their related wild species, including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks at the national,
regional and international levels, and promote access to and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the
utilization of genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge, as internationally agreed.
New frontiers and opportunities
Pathways from food insecurity to malnutrition
Source: FAO (2018), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. Figure 14, p. 30.
• Food commodity markets
• Evolution of “food security”
• Incidence of food insecurity
• Food insecurity today
Outline
New frontiers and opportunities
Prevalence of undernourishment
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P
Percent of global population
Note: P denotes projection.Source: FAO (2018), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World.
New frontiers and opportunities
Composition of undernourishment
Source: FAO (2018), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World.
27.4%
2.7%
10.7%
36.5%
2.9%
14.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Low income
High income
World
2000-01 2014-15
19.8%
15.5%
9.4%
8.2%
6.5%
3.0%
26.6%
19.2%
16.1%
9.4%
11.6%
4.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Sub-Sharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia and Pacific
Middle East and North Afirca
Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe and Central Asia
2001-02 2014-15
By income level By region
New frontiers and opportunities
Acute food insecurity in 2017
Source: Food Security Information Network, Global Report on Food Crises 2018.
17.0
8.9
7.7
7.6
6.5
6.1
3.3
0 4 8 12 16 20
Yemen
Nigeria
DRC
Afghanistan
Syria
South Sudan
Somalia
Million
CONFLICTConflict was the key driver of acute food insecurity in 18 countries and territories, affecting 74 million people.
CLIMATE SHOCKSClimate shocks were the main drivers of acute food insecurity in 23 countries and territories, affecting 39 million people.
8.5
5.1
4.0
3.4
0 2 4 6 8 10
Ethiopia
Malawi
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Million
New frontiers and opportunities
Incidence of obesity
5.1%
5.2%
5.3%
5.4%
5.5%
5.6%
5.7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent of global population
Source: UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank
10.9%
7.3%
6.0%
3.6%
5.6%
0% 4% 8% 12%
Middle East and North Afirca
Latin America and the Caribbean
East Asia and Pacific
Sub-Sharan Africa
World
Percent based on 2016-17 average values
• Food commodity markets
• Evolution of “food security”
• Incidence of food insecurity
• Food insecurity today
Outline
New frontiers and opportunities
Commodity consumption in China and India
2.4
21.4
11.3
22.6
5.7
8.6
24.8
3.7
12.0
18.7
22.2
21.8
50.4
49.4
50.5
12.5
0 15 30 45 60
GDP
Population
Edible oils
Grains
Base metals
Iron ore
Coal
Crude oil
Share of world total (percent)
2014-16 1990-92
Source: World Bank, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture
China
1.2
16.5
9.3
9.9
1.8
1.9
5.2
1.9
3.0
17.8
13.5
9.7
3.0
5.4
10.5
4.4
0 15 30 45 60
GDP
Population
Edible oils
Grains
Base metals
Iron ore
Coal
Crude oil
Share of world total (percent)
2014-16 1990-92
India
New frontiers and opportunities
Domestic vis-à-vis external conditions
Source: Baffes, Mitchell, and Kshirsagar (2017), “What drives local food prices: Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market,” World Bank Economic Review.
Note: Bars represent R-squares from an Error Correction Model, starting with the regional price only, then adding domestic non-food prices, export policies, and so on.
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Regional price + Non-food prices + Trade policies + Seasonality + Climate shocks
R-squared
New frontiers and opportunities
Global risk map, July-September 2018
Source: FAO, Early Warning, Early Action report on food security and agriculture, 2018, July-September.
New frontiers and opportunities
Global risk map, July-September 2018
Source: FAO, Early Warning, Early Action report on food security and agriculture, 2018, July-September.
Conflict Climate shocks
New frontiers and opportunities
The state of food insecurity today
The early debate on food security focused on food availability.
When supply responded (as expected, high prices induced innovation), attention shifted to
income so emphasis was placed on poverty issues (Amartya Sen championed the shift).
As poverty rates declined, emphasis shifted to other issues including quality of food, nutritional
balance, income distribution, and sustainability of supplies.
While there has been considerable progress on food security (undernourishment declined by 4
percentage points during the past 15 years),
o Gains have been uneven: East Asia and Latin America & the Caribbean experienced large gains. But, Sub-
Saharan Africa lags behind while Middle East & North Africa achieved very limited progress;
o There are pockets with persistently high rates of malnutrition, mainly due to conflict and climate shocks.
New challenges have emerged:
o Climate change presents a challenge, especially at a local level, in turn highlighting the role of trade;
o Obesity rates are increasing.
More differentiated approaches are warranted to address these challenges.
New frontiers and opportunities
World Bank’s commodity analysis
Thank youwww.gpca.org.ae
Recommended