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GE’s Digital Wind Farm
Keith Longtin- GM, Renewables Product Line June 19, 2015
58
224
420
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15e
Wind … a mainstream source of power generation
A decade of progress Global wind installations
Source: GE Marketing, GWEC, Navigant, REN21
*U.S. Unsubsidized
~8
Growing
Reliable
Low cost
Efficient
Mainstream
$60B /year
98% availability
50%+ cap. factor
4% of all power
~4.5 cent
power
2003
$5B /year
85%
availability
25%+
cap. factor
0.4%
of all power
15 cent
power
2015
GE tech innovation 1.5-70 1.5-82.5 1.6-82.5 1.6-100 1.7-100 2.0-116
~6
~4.5
© 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
GE technology & innovation; $2B+ invested to make wind competitive
Cumulative (GW)
Wind LCOE (¢/kWh)*
~13
420GW
300
153
~10
92
21 24
2
3
11
10
2
2 2
2 4
4
5
8
'14 '15e
Wind industry ~50GW/yr world through ’18
3
GW
~50
China
India
APac
Eur
Eur-Off
49.2
LA
US
-1%
7%
22%
-2%
7%
-28%
-5%
0%
CAGR
(‘14-18)
MEAT
Can -5%
12%
55
Global dynamics
Catalyst Trend
EMEA: transition to auction system China: environmental concerns US: coal retirements + regulation Oil and gas price
Declining incentives
Cost effective
de-carbonization
Internet of Things
IBM, Envision entering
Software
adding value
FX risks multiply
Increased logistics challenges
Complexity of global supply
YieldCos and asset securitization
C&I expands RE demand
Non-utility
customers require
new solutions
21
3
9
3
3
4
5
Avg '16-'18
Global annual wind installs
© 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
Complex global dynamics require new strategies to lead
The next evolution… Digital Wind Farm
4
• Differentiated technology Next generation of brilliant 2MW turbines Modular design, 20 unique variants
• Software + industrial internet Digital twin, optimized plant at pad level Predix enabled data analytics
• New business models Farm power guarantees + flexible services cash flow certainty; optimize yieldcos
Innovative hardware meets the industrial internet
© 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
Technology: new 2MW brilliant, modular turbines
5
Quality • 2 prototypes (107 & 116) • 90+ component tests • 50+ items learned from 1.7-100
Serviceability • Increased accessibility, improved EHS • Simplified tooling interfaces • Universal machine head, hub, DTA
Performance • 116m- industry leading capacity
factor: 53.3%1 • Variable rotor (107m, 116m), tower
(80m, 94m), rating (2.02.4MW) • +20% AEP/MW over 1.79-100
Building the world’s most efficient wind farm
© 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
1- 7.5m/s, k=2, AD=1.225
6
Leveraging the industrial internet for asset optimization
© 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
Software: Predix enabled data analytics
Predix-ready Gateway
Predix: open developer software platform to collect & analyze data
Cloud connect: industrial gateway for farm-level, real-time data
Apps store: micro-services to manage assets
Electrical Signature Analysis Smart Signal
Actions
Turbine resets Site actions
Power Up
Fleet Visibility
Plan of the Day
Power forecast
Energy audit
Portfolio risk analysis
Tactical support (RCAs, parts, mgmt., crane mob.), grid response
Strategic planning (investments, insurance outage scheduling, supply contracts)
Reliability audit
PulsePOINT
01 1010 110010 0101010
Asset Monitoring & Diagnosis
Operational Efficiencies
Business Insights
Apps
high load + high shear 2.3-107 • tower: 94m HH
medium load + high shear 2.0-116 • tower: 94m HH
low load + low shear 2.3-116 • tower: 80m HH
Customer abandons deal due to lack of production
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
© 2015 General Electric Company
Property
AirDensity[kg/m^3]
WindSheer
Flowincl.angle[deg]
Vref[m/s]
Ve1[m/s]
Vave[m/s]max/minRTI@15m/s[%]Ambient,max/min
#ofFlat/Complex
1.083-1.097
0.2
2.3-8.5
26.5-32
29.7-35.8
7.71/6.93
16.39/15.93
Value
SiteData
15/7Existing 1.5-77,80m
Curtailed Underutilized Ideal
Turbine load
3% • Original Layout: 1.7-103, 80m tower Minimal, 3 WTG’s 149.4
2.0-116, 80m tower Heavy, cut-outs at 10/m/s 145.7
• Economics do not work; new turbines curtailed due to loads
• 22 turbine project located in mid-Atlantic Site AEP (GWh) Curtailment
Case study: DWF impact to customer project (2015)
PowerUp +3%
Availability
+1%
8
© 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
+26% AEP over original layout; successful execution of project
Case study: DWF impact to customer project (2015)
• GE worked with customer to improve layout & optimize turbines at pad-level
• Utilizing DWF modular blades
& towers, increased AEP +26% • Achieved 18% cost reduction
($/GWh) vs. original layout1
1 – includes CAPEx, BOP and O&M
Existing 1.5-77,80m
Curtailed Underutilized Ideal
Turbine load
Existing 1.5-77,80m
Curtailed Underutilized Ideal
Turbine load
146 GWh
2.0-116 80m
9.9%
3%
4.7%
1%
Swap 9x 94m
AE
P/y
r (G
Wh
)
120
200
140
160
180
2.0-116 New
layout
2.3-116 80m
8.4%
Swap 3x 2.3-107
3.2%
DWF Build
+26% AEP
184 GWh
DWF… AEP, $/MWh
-18% $/GWh
Maximizing value at every turbine
$/MWh1
Customer results
Upfront farm-level energy conversion guarantee
Reduces uncertainty & optimizes project financing
New business models: driving farm optimization
9
Flexible Service
Agreements
PowerUp* Platform
Farm-level Power Curve
Farm Optimization
Production-based pricing aligned to farm output
Expanding scope (eBOP, construction services, NERC)
Farm O&M Farm Guarantee
Applying the latest tech to the installed base
Commercial flexibility… “pay for what you get”
Line of sight to +15% AEP for older fleet
Outcome-based offerings backed by cutting edge technology & analytics
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Project cash flows
Year of operation
Debt sizing
Rev
Cost
Wind PowerUp* Services *Trademark of General Electric Company © 2015 General Electric Company
GE Company Proprietary & Confidential
Next gen technology... solving key challenges
GE Confidential – Distribute to authorized individuals only
Modular blades Taller towers Grid response
Advanced larger, cost effective blades
160m+ towers, shipped in 40’ containers
Stronger, more reliable “grid-friendly” turbines
• Modular parts...repeatable,
high quality processes
• New materials...low cost,
robust materials
• Design for automation...
improved quality, labor
• Wind power to challenging
sites (ie. ridgelines)
• On-site assembly; bolting
system requires no re-torque
• Easier installation and
dismantling
• WindINERTIA* supports grid
stability in under-freq. events
• eBOP design & operation;
efficiency, 5-20% cost
Wind PowerUp* Services *Trademark of General Electric Company © 2015 General Electric Company
GE Business Unit Name 11
GE Renewables: innovative hardware meets the industrial internet
Digital wind farm changing the economics of wind
value across lifetime of farm Differentiated solutions
Technology New 2MW modular turbines, optimized to site
+20% AEP1
Software Predix enabled data analytics; asset optimization
Business models Farm power guarantees, flexible services
availability, OPEX
cash flow certainty
Domain expertise in wind Stable customer base Strong data accumulation
1- vs. 1.79-100
© 2015 General Electric Company
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