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8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
1/21
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
2/21
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
3/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Data:The grades of 64 blocks of size 1 x 1
This exercise has been designed to highlight the economic impact of estimation errors.
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4
4
3
2
1
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
4/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Data:The grades of 64 blocks of size 1 x 1were available in an area 8 x 8
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4
4
3
2
1
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
5/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Data:The grades of 64 blocks of size 1 x 1were available in an area 8 x 8
Shows 16 of these grades
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4
4
3
2
1
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
6/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Data:The grades of 64 blocks of size 1 x 1were available in an area 8 x 8
Shows 16 of these grades
Each from the top left corner of a
block of size 2 x 2
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
735 45 125 167 1
2
450 337 95 245 3
4
124 430 230 460 5
6
75 20 32 20 7
8
1 2 3 4
4
3
2
1
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
7/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Data:The grades of 64 blocks of size 1 x 1were available in an area 8 x 8
Shows 16 of these grades
Each from the top left corner of a
block of size 2 x 2
The values of the other 48 samples
will be used later for comparison
purposes
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
735 45 125 167 1
2
450 337 95 245 3
4
124 430 230 460 5
6
75 20 32 20 7
8
1 2 3 4
4
3
2
1
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
8/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Polygonal Estimation 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
3
2
1
1
124
3 4
735 45 125 167
450 337 95 245
2
430 230 460
75 20 32 20
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
9/21
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
735 45 125 167 1
2
450 337 95 245 3
4
124 430 230 460 5
6
75 20 32 20 7
8
1 2 3 4
4
3
2
1
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Coba anda lakukan Estimasi
menurut ‘perasaan’ saudara??
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
10/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Kriging Estimation 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
189
99 81
4
3
2
1 88 125
3 4
442 190 142 204
354 276 212 279
2
226 216 271
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
11/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Selective Mining
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
3
2
1
1
124
3 4
735 45 125 167
450 337 95 245
2
430 230 460
75 20 32 20
Suppose that in this case the economic cutoff is 300.
So the expected profit is:
735 + 450 + 337 + 430 + 460 – (5 x 300) = 912
Estimation Polygonal
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
12/21
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
13/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Selective Mining8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
44 155
3 4
505 143 88 207
270 328 171 411
2
220 154 263
101 54
4
3
2
1
1
102
Cutoff is 300.
Expected profit(Polygonal): 912
True ValueActual profit
would be: 86
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
3
2
1
1
124
3 4
735 45 125 167
450 337 95 245
2
430 230 460
75 20 32 20
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
88 125
3 4
442 190 142 204
354 276 212 279
2
226 216 271
99 81
4
3
2
1
1
189
Expected profit
(Kriging): ???
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
14/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Selective Mining8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
44 155
3 4
505 143 88 207
270 328 171 411
2
220 154 263
101 54
4
3
2
1
1
102
Cutoff is 300.
Expected profit(Polygonal): 912
True ValueActual profit
would be: 86
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
3
2
1
1
124
3 4
735 45 125 167
450 337 95 245
2
430 230 460
75 20 32 20
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
88 125
3 4
442 190 142 204
354 276 212 279
2
226 216 271
99 81
4
3
2
1
1
189
Expected profit
(Kriging):
442 + 354 + 276 + 226 +
271 – (5 x 300) = 69
Estimasi ANDA???
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
15/21
The $64 question : does geostatistics work?
Selective Mining
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
16/21
Studi Kasus
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
17/21
SEAM BATUBARA
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
18/21
Jenis blok:blok regular rectangular grid,unreguler single hole
Jumlah Blok yang dihitung:720 buah
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
19/21
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
K e t e b a l a n
B a t u b a r a E s t i m a s i I D S ( m
)
Ketebalan Batubara (m)
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
20/21
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
K e t e b a l a n B a t u b
a r a E s t i m a s i O r d i n a r y K r i g
i n g ( m )
Ketebalan Batubara (m)
8/20/2019 Geomatematika 4 Cross Validasi
21/21
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