General Economic Update Workforce Development Council February 2010

General Economic UpdateWorkforce Development Council

February 2010

1

Bob Uhlenkott, Chief Research OfficerIdaho Department of Labor

September - 2007By Dennis Cauchon

Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly!

• Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500.• December 2009 published estimate is 601,100. • Equaling total job of losses over 68,000 since the peak.

9.1 % 10 %

December 2009

(9.4%) Oct-1982 to Feb-1983

(2.8%) Nov-2006 to May-07

4

December 2007

5

December 2008

6

December 2009

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Comparing Recessions in Idaho

Comparing Recessions in Idaho

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13

15

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•Modeling an optimistic economic scenario purports year-over-year job increases in the fall of 2010. •However, regaining all the jobs lost in the recent recession is not expected to occur until late 2013 or early 2014. •For industries like construction pre-recession levels are not expected to be reached until the latter half of the next decade.

On pace for recovery projections made in September of 2009

Bob Uhlenkott – Chief Research Officer

Thanks for your time!

MARCH 5, 2010

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• Following the current recession employment in Idaho is projected to increase more than 20 percent over the next decade.

• If annual job replacements are also taken into account, job openings will rise to more than 30,000 annually.

Idaho’s Long-Term Employment Outlook

What are HOT Industries?

• Hot industries are those that on average rank high in three major criteria — – the abundance of jobs in the

economy, – jobs which are growing the fastest

and – jobs with the highest pay.

Idaho’s Hot Industries…1 Ambulatory Health Care Services

– Change in Employment: +10,677– Growth Percentage: 42.3%– Median Hourly Wage: $15.08

2 Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals– Change in Employment: +7,506– Growth Percentage: 27.7%– Median Hourly Wage: $18.37

3 Administrative and Support Services– Change in Employment: +16,958– Growth Percentage: 43.2%– Median Hourly Wage: $12.22

Source: IDOL 2006-2016 Industry Projections.

What are HOT Jobs?

• Hot Jobs are those that on average rank high in three major criteria — – the abundance of jobs in the

economy, – jobs which are growing the fastest

and – jobs with the highest pay.

Idaho’s HOT Jobs…1 Registered Nurses

– Change in Employment: +3,617– Growth Percentage: 36.7%– Annual Openings: 523– Median Hourly Wage: $25.25– Required Education: Associate Degree

2 Pharmacists– Change in Employment: +595– Growth Percentage: 42.9%– Annual Openings: 84– Median Hourly Wage: $45.10– Required Education: First Professional Degree

Source: IDOL 2006-2016 Occupational Projections.

Idaho’s HOT Jobs…3 Business Operations Specialists, All Other

– Change in Employment: +1,537– Growth Percentage: 34.4%– Annual Openings: 202– Median Hourly Wage: $22.61– Required Education: Bachelor’s Degree

4 Dental Hygienists– Change in Employment: +477– Growth Percentage: 50.7%– Annual Openings: 66– Median Hourly Wage: $33.70– Required Education: Associate Degree

Source: IDOL 2006-2016 Occupational Projections.

#1 Shifting demographic – Aging baby boomers

#2 Everyone is living longer – Technology keeps us alive longer

#3 With longer lives come health problems#4 Net in-migration made up of many retirees

Factors driving the Healthcare industry and occupational growth

Region 3 – Southwest IdahoLabor Market Information

• Comprises of nearly 45% of Statewide employment

• Ten of the 44 counties

• Per capita income is nearly 17% higher than the rest of the State of Idaho

Quick Facts

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Statewide

Region 3

A Comparison of Employment Growth: A Comparison of Employment Growth: Statewide vs. Southwest IdahoStatewide vs. Southwest Idaho

2009 data is preliminary

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Number of Total Number of Employers in Employers in

Southwest IdahoSouthwest Idaho

How has the current recession affected businesses in the region?

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Number of Total Number of Employers in Employers in

Southwest IdahoSouthwest Idaho

How has the current recession affected businesses in the region?

In the 3rd Quarter of 2007 20,637 businesses were operating in Region 3.

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

By the 3rd Quarter of 2008 2,749 of the businesses in operation in 2007 relocated or closed their doors.

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

One year later, another 2,168 of those businesses moved out of the area or ceased operation.

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

Nearly 24% of businesses in Region 3 during the 3rd quarter of 2007 are no longer in operation.

24% Decline24% Decline

19,097 Total Businesses in the Region

15,720 Businesses still in operation from 2007

Claimant Characteristics

Number of Claimants by IndustryNumber of Claimants by Industry2006 vs. 2009 - Southwest Idaho2006 vs. 2009 - Southwest Idaho

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

23 - Construction

31-33 Manufacturing

55-56 - Mgt. of Companies & Enterprises,Admin. Support, Waste Mgt.

44-45 Retail Trade

2006 2009

Claimant’s Highest Level of EducationClaimant’s Highest Level of Education2006 vs. 2009 - Southwest Idaho2006 vs. 2009 - Southwest Idaho

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

8th Grade or Less 9th Thru 11th Grade

High School Some College College Graduate Post College Grad

2006 2009

9.1 % 10 %

December 2009

(9.4%) Oct-1982 to Feb-1983

(2.8%) Nov-2006 to May-07

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Customer Profile

(Dec. 2009)

110,000 Job Seekers•51,000 – advanced

education•37,000 – age 45+•30,000 – working•5,000 – in school

•11,000 – food stamps•9,200 – Veterans•1,800 – homeless

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Labor Local Offices Are Busy

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Fringe Benefit Survey

Single Coverage

What percent of employers offer health insurance to their employees*?

*Full Time Employees Only

Single Coverage

Family Coverage

What percent of employers offer health insurance to their employees?

What percent of the premium is paid by the employer??

Bob Uhlenkott – Chief Research OfficerJohn Van Dyke – Regional Labor Economist.

Thanks for your time!