Futures of Work

Future Human Capital Development Future Human Capital Development Within International ContextsWithin International Contexts

Arthur Harkins, Ph.D.Arthur Harkins, Ph.D.John Moravec, Ph.D.John Moravec, Ph.D.

University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota

This talk…This talk…Is intended to help understand how Is intended to help understand how nations may develop future human nations may develop future human capital in the form of successfully capital in the form of successfully competitive knowledge and competitive knowledge and innovation workers.innovation workers.This development includes This development includes supportive organizations, such as supportive organizations, such as schools, higher education, and other schools, higher education, and other agencies.agencies.

Human capital classifications…Human capital classifications…

Background…Background…

Pre-Agriculture Age (-3 Pre-Agriculture Age (-3 millionmillion years years hunting/gathering). hunting/gathering). Fur Collar.Fur Collar.Farming Age (-12 Farming Age (-12 thousandthousand years years sedentary farming). sedentary farming). Gray CollarGray Collar..Early-Mid-Late Industry Ages Early-Mid-Late Industry Ages (-300 years factories/standardized (-300 years factories/standardized parts/wage jobs). parts/wage jobs). Blue Collar.Blue Collar.

Background…Background…

Information Age (-150 years beginning Information Age (-150 years beginning with telegraphy). with telegraphy). White Collar.White Collar.

Institutions are attempting to cope with Institutions are attempting to cope with this change through adaptation to Web this change through adaptation to Web 1.0.1.0.

Background…Background…Knowledge/Innovation Age (-15 years to +Knowledge/Innovation Age (-15 years to ++ years). + years). Plaid Collar.Plaid Collar.

Smart and intelligent devices & networks Smart and intelligent devices & networks require routine creation of new contexts, require routine creation of new contexts, cultures, and languages. cultures, and languages.

Institutions and organizations are Institutions and organizations are gradually responding to this change gradually responding to this change through Web 2.0 and are developing Web through Web 2.0 and are developing Web 3.0.3.0.

1945-19901945-1990

Reign of information/non-cybernetic Reign of information/non-cybernetic service workers, who were service workers, who were superceded by the very rapid superceded by the very rapid emergence of digitally enhanced emergence of digitally enhanced knowledge and innovation workers.knowledge and innovation workers.

Today and Toward the HorizonToday and Toward the Horizon

Now - 2015Now - 2015: : –Near-term economy-of-scale impacts Near-term economy-of-scale impacts

though technology, making lifelong though technology, making lifelong rere-education become required in:-education become required in:

IMAGINATIONIMAGINATIONCREATIVITYCREATIVITYINVENTIONINVENTIONINNOVATIONINNOVATIONDESIGN DESIGN

On the Horizon …On the Horizon …2015 - 20252015 - 2025: : –personalized, point-of-need personalized, point-of-need

learning through early artificial learning through early artificial intelligence, neurocircuitry intelligence, neurocircuitry implants, language/dialect implants, language/dialect translators, etc.)translators, etc.)

–Offices/classrooms obsolete as Offices/classrooms obsolete as information download centers.information download centers. They must become creative They must become creative knowledge and innovation centersknowledge and innovation centers..

Over the Horizon…Over the Horizon…

2025 – 2030 - 20402025 – 2030 - 2040: : –'Brain-In-a-Box‘: Artificial 'Brain-In-a-Box‘: Artificial

Intelligence replaces virtually all Intelligence replaces virtually all currentcurrent (2008) professional (2008) professional functions in human labor forces.functions in human labor forces.

An Ordinary Knowledge Worker An Ordinary Knowledge Worker ……

… …transforms information into transforms information into forms that permit expanded forms that permit expanded decisions (knowledge). Such decisions (knowledge). Such knowledge workers now make knowledge workers now make up about 50% of the U.S. up about 50% of the U.S. workforce.workforce.

An Innovative Knowledge Worker An Innovative Knowledge Worker ……

… …helps create receptive helps create receptive contextscontexts for expanded for expanded knowledge bases and decisions knowledge bases and decisions (e.g., within a bureaucratic (e.g., within a bureaucratic organization).organization).

Knowledge Worker GrowthKnowledge Worker Growth

< 10% in 1985< 10% in 1985

> 40% in 2001 (Drucker)> 40% in 2001 (Drucker)

> 80% in 2025 (Harkins)> 80% in 2025 (Harkins)

Knowledge Workers Need Knowledge Workers Need InformationInformation

Information workers transform data, Information workers transform data, supplying the results to knowledge supplying the results to knowledge workers. Much of this is now being workers. Much of this is now being assumed by non-human resources.assumed by non-human resources.

Such growth is driven by smart Such growth is driven by smart software, devices, and networks.software, devices, and networks.

Innovation Worker GrowthInnovation Worker GrowthInnovative knowledge workers are Innovative knowledge workers are required to interface decision options required to interface decision options by altering the receptivity of human by altering the receptivity of human contexts.contexts.

This opens up a relatively new field: This opens up a relatively new field: context design.context design.

Context Design Context Design for Innovation Workersfor Innovation Workers

Context design creates cultures to Context design creates cultures to affect human capital enhancements affect human capital enhancements and applications.and applications.

Context design must become the Context design must become the very soul of education at all levels.very soul of education at all levels.

Global Universities Global Universities as Lagging Indicators as Lagging Indicators

Currently, universities are producing Currently, universities are producing graduates with information worker skills, graduates with information worker skills, language and mentalities. They should be language and mentalities. They should be producing knowledge and innovation skills.producing knowledge and innovation skills.

For example, professionals are being For example, professionals are being encouraged to develop IT skills without encouraged to develop IT skills without knowledge creation and synthesis skills. knowledge creation and synthesis skills.

Contextual innovation is just beginning to Contextual innovation is just beginning to receive sophisticated attention driven by receive sophisticated attention driven by new awareness/language (i.e., context new awareness/language (i.e., context design, with emphasis on culture design, with emphasis on culture construction).construction).

It’s now It’s now de rigueurde rigueur

EVERY MODERN EVERY MODERN ORGANIZATION ON THE ORGANIZATION ON THE

PLANET IS GOING THROUGH A PLANET IS GOING THROUGH A TRANSFORMATION TO PLAID TRANSFORMATION TO PLAID

COLLAR WORKERS.COLLAR WORKERS.

Shall We Prevail?Shall We Prevail?

Understanding and leveraging Understanding and leveraging these changes is the task of these changes is the task of knowledge and innovation knowledge and innovation workers, particularly those in workers, particularly those in education, to support human education, to support human capital development.capital development.

Is There Opportunity for All?Is There Opportunity for All?

In theory, there's a world of In theory, there's a world of knowledge and innovation knowledge and innovation opportunity for every opportunity for every country on Earth. country on Earth.

Will all nations seize Will all nations seize the opportunity?the opportunity?

Straight LineStraight Line ProjectionProjection of Human of Human Capital Development Leaders by 2010Capital Development Leaders by 2010USAUSAJapanJapanEuropean Union/Scandinavia/UKEuropean Union/Scandinavia/UKSouth KoreaSouth KoreaTaiwanTaiwanChinaChinaSingaporeSingaporeIndiaIndiaAustraliaAustraliaCanadaCanadaBrazilBrazilBalticsBaltics

WeakWeak LeapFrog ProjectionLeapFrog Projection of Human of Human Capital Development Leaders by 2015Capital Development Leaders by 2015

European Union/Scandinavia/UKEuropean Union/Scandinavia/UKUSAUSAJapanJapanSouth KoreaSouth KoreaChinaChinaTaiwanTaiwanSingaporeSingaporeIndiaIndiaAustraliaAustraliaBrazilBrazilBaltics?Baltics?

Moderately StrongModerately Strong LeapFrog ProjectionLeapFrog Projection of of Human Capital Development Leaders by 2025Human Capital Development Leaders by 2025

European Union/Scandinavia/UK/BalticsEuropean Union/Scandinavia/UK/BalticsChinaChinaIndiaIndiaSingaporeSingaporeUSAUSAJapanJapanSouth KoreaSouth KoreaTaiwanTaiwanBrazilBrazilAustraliaAustralia

StrongStrong LeapFrog ProjectionLeapFrog Projection of Human of Human Capital Development Leaders by 2035Capital Development Leaders by 2035

European Union/Scandinavia/UK/BalticsEuropean Union/Scandinavia/UK/BalticsIndiaIndiaChinaChinaSingaporeSingaporeJapanJapanUSAUSASouth KoreaSouth KoreaBrazilBrazilTaiwanTaiwanAustraliaAustraliaCanadaCanada

Who are the human Who are the human potentialpotential development leaders?development leaders?

How will things actually How will things actually turn out for America?turn out for America?

It’s up to all of us,It’s up to all of us,but particularly to the educators.but particularly to the educators.

After all, we’re expected to produce After all, we’re expected to produce the (exceptional) human capital.the (exceptional) human capital.

What is Leapfrog?What is Leapfrog?

Discussion:Discussion:Leapfrog AlternativesLeapfrog Alternatives

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

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