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Future Grids in Australia
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME
Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' Conference and Future Networks Technical Seminar 2013
6 September2013
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
In this talk
• Where have we come from
• Some recent changes
• The next 10-20 years
2 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Where have we come from
(last 10 years)
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman3 |
Peak and average demand
4 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
Electricity generation
5 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
50
100
150
200
250T
Wh
AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)
Wind
Solar
Oil products
Natural gas
Coal seam methane
Brown coal
Black coal
Biofuels
Hydro
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
Wholesale electricity prices
6 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
NSW
QLD
SA
SNOWY
TAS
VIC
$/M
Wh
Source: AEMO
Retail electricity prices
7 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Sources: ABS 2012, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, cat. no. 6427.0; Consumer Price Index, Australia, cat.
no. 6401.0.
Some recent changes
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman8 |
Electricity consumption declining
9 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
188
190
192
194
196
198
200
202
204
206
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Consumption (TWh)
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
Electricity consumption declining
10 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TW
hConsumption by NEM State (TWh)
TAS
SA
QLD
VIC
NSW & ACT
Total Consumption
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
Possible reasons for NSW
11 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Intelligent Energy Systems (2013), IES Insider, Issue No. 14
Solar PV
12 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Australian PV Association
Solar PV
13 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
End of Solar Bonus
Scheme, April 2011
Reduction of solar Credits
Multiplier, June 2011
Reduction of Solar Credits
Multiplier, June 2012
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
kWMW
Solar PV Capacity in Australia
Solar PV Capacity
Average PV system size
Source: Clean Energy Regulator
Peak demand
14 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
‘Strong’ La Nina on the east coast
15 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Electricity generation
16 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
50
100
150
200
250T
Wh
AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)
Wind
Solar
Oil products
Natural gas
Coal seam methane
Brown coal
Black coal
Biofuels
Hydro
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
Average wholesale prices down
17 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
194,000
196,000
198,000
200,000
202,000
204,000
206,000
208,000
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Average price ($/MWh)Total Energy GWh
Total energy Average price
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
Wholesale price spikes subdued
18 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
37 35
66
34
102
131
120
48
88
47
27
175
39 37
22
12 11
59
1
22
12
0
1319
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
NSW QLD SA VIC TAS NEM
Da
ys a
bo
ve $
30
0
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
The next 10-20 years
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman19 |
The next 10-20 years
• Will electricity consumption continue to decline?
• Will peak demand rebound?
• What about centralised generation?
• More PV?
• Prices rising?
• What about storage and EVs?
• Can retailers keep their customers?
20 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Electricity consumption forecast
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman21 |
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
Financial yearResidential and commercial* Industrial Consumption Transmission LossesAuxiliary Loads Rooftop PV Energy EfficiencyAnnual energy - as generated Annual energy - as sent out
An
nu
al e
ner
gy
seg
men
ts
Electricity consumption growth, some uncertainty
22 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
An
nu
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
(G
Wh
)
2013 High 2013 Medium 2013 Low Actuals
2013 NEFR native annual energy forecasts (10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM
Peak demand rebound
23 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
Peak demand rebound
24 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
More rooftop PV
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman25 |
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
An
nu
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
(G
Wh
)
2013 High 2013 Medium 2013 Low Actuals 2012 High 2012 Medium 2012 Low
2013 NEFR rooftop PV annual energy forecasts(10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM
Peak demand and solar PV: market level
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman26 |
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
Peak demand and solar PV: network level
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman27 |
Source: SKM (2013), Assessment of Economic Benefits of a National Energy Savings Initiative
Retail prices up some more
28 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: AEMC (2013), Electricity Price Trends Report
The ‘death spiral’• Networks have fixed costs because they build capacity ($/kVA)
• They recover their costs through energy charges (c/kWh)
• If energy consumption falls (e.g., PV, energy efficiency), fewer kWh to recover fixed costs
• Creates a revenue shortfall
• In the next round, the network charge (c/kWh) has to rise
• This feeds through to higher retail prices
• This leads to greater incentive to reduce consumption
• And so on…
Energy pathways | Luke Reedman29 |
Storage, just around the corner?
30 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Can retailers keep their customers?
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman31 |
Source: AER (2012), State of the Energy Market 2012
Likely investment
32 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%other
hydro
geothermal
solar
coal
gas
wind
Percentage of proposed power stations by fuel type (MW)
More wind, but…
33 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Reedman et al. (2012), ‘Quantifying the Impact of Setback Limits on the Possible
Deployment of Wind Farms in Australia’, Paper presented at the International Energy Workshop.
Large scale solar coming, PV…
34 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
2013 - 10 MWp at Greenough River, WAPhoto provided by First Solar
2007 - 305 kWp on Alice Springs Crown CasinoPhoto provided by SunPower Corporation
2012 - 1.22 MWp at University of QLD
2009 - 1.0 MWp on Adelaide Showground
… can solar thermal fight back?
35 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
What about gas?
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman36 |
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
PJ
Natural gas 2009-10
projections
Natural gas 2010-11
projections
Natural gas 2011-12
projections
Comparison of historical Australian domestic natural gas demand forecasts
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
CCS and nuclear
37 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
CCS
• Number of technologies being investigated
• Delays in timeline
• CCS expected to be at commercial scale in 2020 at the earliest
Nuclear power
• Currently prohibited in some states
• No local experience
• Lack of community acceptance
• Environmental issues and catastrophic risk
New demand: electric vehicles
38 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mil
lio
n
Based on vehicle manufacturer projections
Based on IEA (2011)
The take away
• Considerable uncertainty
• Demand has changed and will continue to change
• More modular centralised supply
• Less network build, but still needs spend
• Decreasing utilisation needs to be tackled (‘death spiral’ in the extreme case)
• Pricing needs to change, challenge is consumer buy-in
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman39 |
40 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Questions?
Thank youDr Luke Reedman
Stream Leader, Energy ModellingCSIRO Energy Flagship
t +61 2 49606057
e luke.reedman@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Energy-Flagship.aspx
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
Acknowledgments
Paul Graham
John Ward
Chris Fell
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