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From GAIM to AIMES
Guy P. Brasseur
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Chair of IGBP
IGBP II Structure
IGBP Projects
• Atmosphere: IGAC
• Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC
• Land: GLP
• Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS
• Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS
• Land-Ocean: LOICZ
• Integration: PAGES and AIMES
GLP AIMES
Earth System Science Partnership
HealthHealth StartSTART
The IGBP-AIMES Project
Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System
• Directions:
• Synthesis of the findings from the different IGBP Projects into a coherent framework
• Coupling between the biogeochemical system and the physical climate system (link between IGBP and WCRP)
• Coupling the natural system with the human system (link between IGBP and IHDP)
Institutional Networking
• Better involve research institutions that have a broad approach in Earth System Research
• These institutions could provide resources in support of IGBP science.
• AIMES would offer to these institutions a platform to develop joint projects, discuss scientific achievements, develop a vision for future research, organize specific activities such as model intercomparisons, develop educational activities (PhD and post-doc program) etc.
• This network would establish links between developed and emerging countries.
AIMES Institutional NetworkInitial Suggestions
• NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA - AIMES International Project Office
• Hadley Centre, UK• MPIs - Hamburg, Jena, Mainz, Germany• Frontiers Programme, Japan• CSIRO Complex Systems Programme, Australia• IPSL, France• Tyndall Centre/QUEST, UK & PIK, Germany• EOS, U. of New Hampshire, USA• Columbia University, NY, USA• CAS/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China• Indian Institute for Science, Bangalore• INPE/CPTEC, Brazil• etc..
Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System
• Specific Actions related to GEIA:
• From stactic (natural) emission inventories to emission models to be coupled with chemical-transport atmospheric models.
• From static (anthropogenic) model inventories to emission models that account for the human dimension (economic models)
• From Carbon-Climate to Carbon-Chemistry-Climate modeling (and intercomparision).
• Dynamic vegetation models
• Scenario activities
Earth System Models of different levels of
complexity
Earth System Modelling
Models of Dynamic Vegetation
Cox et al., Hadley CentreKiang et al., GISS
Dynamic Vegetation in Earth System Models
Carbon-Nitrogen-Climate Interactions
Figure 2. C4MIP Phase 1 experimental design. Ellipses show prescribed inputs, rectangles show model simulations.
Atmosphericcirculation and
physical processes
Terrestrial biosphere
Atmospheric CO2
(3-D monthly means)
AtmosphericCO2 (global
annualmeans)
Sea-surfacetemperatures(2-D monthly
means)
Surfaceclimate
Land surfaceproperties
Fossil fuelCO2
emissions
Land use(2-D annual
means)
NetCO2
fluxes
Ocean-atmosphereCO2 fluxes
Carbon Cycle-Climate InteractionsC4MIP
Atmospheric Chemistry-Ecosystems-Climate
Interactions
Processes affecting stratospheric ozone and temperature
Chemical reaction rates
Stratospheric circulation
PSC formation
Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O
Greenhouse gases
Stratospheric ozone
Stratospheric temperature
CH4 oxidation
Stratospheric water vapour
UV
Troposphere-stratosphere exchange
Polar stratospheric ozone depends on a complex system Polar stratospheric ozone depends on a complex system of chemical and dynamical parameters and processesof chemical and dynamical parameters and processes
Stratospheric chlorine & nitrogen oxides concentrations
Vertical propagation of planetary and gravity waves
Interactions between the Physical and Human
Systems
Atmosphere
Anthropo-sphere
EcosystemServices
HumanImpacts
Natural Capital Human-madeCapital(includes Built CapitalHuman Capital,and Social Capital
SolarEnergy
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Biosphere
11 Biomes
Introducing the Human Dimensionsinto Earth System Models
Ecosystem function & health
Human welfareand health
• Integrated history of natural and human system change: spatially explicit, mapped globally
• Scale: last 8000 years, with higher spatial and temporal resolution for the last 300 and 100 years
1. Test coupled biophysical-human models against the integrated history
2. Project future of the ‘human enterprise’ with more confidence and skill, based on models tested against the integrated history
IHOPE: Integrated History ofPeople on Earth
Conclusions
• AIMES should be different from GAIM. It will have to define themes (analyses, modeling) that involve many of the IGBP Projects, and has interfaces with WCRP, IHDP and Diversitas.
• It should remain focussed on a limited numbers of initiatives, but these should be challenging and at the frontier of what is possible.
• The focus should be on the science.• The involvement of emerging countries is key.
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