Friday lunchtime lecture: When the dust settles - open data and the 2015 general election

When the dust settles:Open data and the 2015 General Election

@GavinFreeguard@instituteforgov

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The Institute for Government aims to make government more effective

• Established 2008• Non-partisan charity• Mission to help make government more effective• Combination of research and learning activity – not as distinct strands – but to look at how government should improve and help it to do so

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Whitehall Monitor is the IfG’s data-driven analysis of the size, shape and performance of government

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Whitehall Monitor 2014 has three components

The resources available to Whitehall

What Whitehall does with those resources

The real world impact of Whitehall’s actions

Whitehall Monitor focuses on four narratives

What government looks like in 2014• Departments differ in terms of their resources, their

roles and the demands made upon them

How government has changed since 2010• Smaller budgets, fewer staff, morale (largely) same• Reforms have changed what some departments do

How transparent government is• Some improvements – e.g. Major Projects Authority• But still work to do – e.g. financial transparency

Where are pressure points post-2015?

Few ministers remain in the same posts as May 2010…

Government reshuffles 2010-14 – when ministers took up current post (as of 1 November 2014)

Tenure of permanent secretaries, May 2010 – September 2014 from when first appointed

… as do not-so-permanent secretaries

Departments have remained stable

Total Managed Expenditure by department, plans for 2013-14

Departmental budgets vary in size…

Total Managed Expenditure by department, plans for 2013-14

Departmental budgets vary in size…

Planned and implied resource DEL spend in selected areas (OBR)

…and the pressures they could face post-2015

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and Fiscal Outlook Table G: Implied breakdown of RDEL in 2019-20 (December 2014)

2009-10 2014-15 2019-20£0bn

£50bn

£100bn

£150bn

£200bn

Health

Other RDEL

Education

International Aid

Departmental assets and liabilities 2009-10 and 2012-13

Some departments have large – and increasing – liabilities

Departmental assets and liabilities 2009-10 and 2012-13

Some departments have large – and increasing – liabilities

Extent of devolved responsibility by department

‘Barnett Consequentials’ differ between departments

DfE DCLG DH Defra

DCMS DfT

Law HO

BIS MoJ

CO CxD

DWP DECC

FCO MoDDfID

TOTAL

0%

100%

Transparency of departmental spending plans

Transparency about spending changes is often lacking

Staff numbers are down by over 70,000

Civil Service staff numbers

The Civil Service is at its smallest since World War Two

Civil Service staff numbers - % cut since Spending Review 2010

DCMS and DCLG have had the biggest cuts…

Civil Service staff numbers (managed department), 2014 Q2

…but are amongst the smallest departments

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000DWP

MoJ

HMRC

MoD

HO

FCO DfE BIS CO Defra DfID DH DfT DCLG DECC HMT DCMS

Civil Service staff numbers (managed department), 2014 Q2

DWP, MoJ, HMRC and MoD are the biggest departments…

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000DWP

MoJ

HMRC

MoD

HO

FCO DfE BIS CO Defra DfID DH DfT DCLG DECC HMT DCMS

Civil Service staff numbers - % cut since Spending Review 2010

…and so DWP, MoJ, HMRC and MoD have accounted for the bulk of cuts

Civil Service Engagement Index, 2009-2014

Civil Service morale has largely held up…

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%

25%

50%

75%

100%

58% 56% 56% 58% 58% 59%

…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…

…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…

…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…

…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…

…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…

…but there are departmental exceptions (e.g. DfE)…

Civil Service Engagement Index, 2013

…and on themes, like pay

Civil Service Engagement Index, 2013

…and on themes, like pay

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Resource Management Models, 2014

Departments manage their resources in different ways…

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Department of Health – change in model

…and some have changed what they do since 2010

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Total number of non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs), 1979 to 2014

‘The Bonfire of the Quangos’ is a numbers game, but arm’s-length body reform shouldn’t be

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Greater transparency is needed on government contracting

Largest suppliers’ revenues from central government by department, 2013

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Written Parliamentary questions submitted to each department, 2013-14

Work and Pensions, Health receive most information requests…

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Overall rankings for responses to information requests

…and are reasonably good in responding on time

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Delivery confidence for major projects across government, 2013 and 2014

Major projects remain a pressure point…

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Delivery confidence for major projects across government, 2013 and 2014

Major projects remain a pressure point…

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…but more projects have improved in delivery confidence

Change in delivery confidence for major projects, 2013 to 2014

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Usability of departments’ impact indicators

Impact is difficult to measure – and to find

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‘Which three things do you think UK politicians should prioritise?’ and‘Which three things do you think UK politicians prioritise at the moment?’

There is a large expectation gap

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There is a large expectation gap‘Which three things do you think UK politicians should prioritise?’ and

‘Which three things do you think UK politicians prioritise at the moment?’

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‘About the government. How satisfied are you with the way it is doing its job?’

GB mid-ranking in public perception of effectiveness

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Government faces a number of pressure points post-2015

Ministers and Permanent Secretaries• Departments need more stable leadership

Spending• The Government needs greater insight and tighter controls to

ensure the sustainability of spending cuts

Workforce• The Civil Service needs to change how it works if it is going to

cope with the further cuts it faces

Reforms• Whitehall needs to continue raising its skills to successfully

deliver government reforms

Public perceptions• Politicians need to convince the public that they can run

government effectively

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The agenda has been driven across parties and across governments

2003 UK Advisory Panel on Public Sector Information established 2007 Blair Government launches Power of Information Review 2008 Brown Government initiates Power of Information Taskforce 2009 Power of Information Taskforce Report

Tim Berners-Lee and Nigel Shadbolt appointed as advisors to the UK Government on opening up access to government data

2010 Data.gov.uk officially launched

Letter from Prime Minister Cameron setting out Transparency agenda 2011 Open Government Partnership established 2012 Open Data White Paper: unleashing the potential published

Open Data Institute founded 2013 G8 Open Data Charter

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The quality of data can be improved…

Availability and access• Make data – and series – easier to find• Use straightforward and machine-readable formats• Structure it in ways that are easy to analyse

Purpose and documentation• Make clear the scope and purpose of the data• Document the degree of confidence and label missing data

consistently• Develop consistent labels for departments

Comparability• Report on consistent boundaries and explicit groupings• Provide consistent reporting across departments• Explain changes and allow reconciliation between sources

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…as can making data informative…

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…and data is most powerful when used for a purpose

When the dust settles:Open data and the 2015 General Election

@GavinFreeguard@instituteforgov