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FRANX Code forFire PRA Analysis
PSA200809/08/2008Jeff Riley
Richard Anoba / Anoba ConsultingBijan Najafi / SAIC
2© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Overview
• Where does FRANX fit into the process
• Some key FRANX features
3© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Some history
• FRANC
– Started in 1995 (Exelon)
– Scenario by scenario screening calculations
• XINIT
– Started in 2003 (OPPD)
– Model morphing
• FRANX
– 2008
– Combine FRANC and XINIT
– Add interfaces to cable and fire propagation
4© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Software Overview
Cable & EquipmentLocations
Fire Sources & Freq(scenarios)
Fire Progression& Damage
Plant Effect(PSA Model)
5© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Integration Diagram
Franx DataCable Database
Fire Propagation Effects Database
Zone Raceways
Cables Component / basic events
Combustible Ignition Frequency
Scenarios Raceways Impacted equipment
Non-suppression probability
Plant Cable Data
FRANX can updateEOOS Model with the FireInitiators (Scenarios)
Scenarios IGN Impacts NSP
Scenario 1 Fire Initiator 1 IGN1 Impact1 NSP1Scenario 2 Fire Initiator 2 IGN2 Impact2 NSP2….External EventsHuman Actions
UpdateEOOSModel
QuantifyAnd screen
Import
Import
Franx DataCable Database
Fire Propagation Effects Database
Zone Raceways
Cables Component / basic events
Combustible Ignition Frequency
Scenarios Raceways Impacted equipment
Non-suppression probability
Plant Cable Data
FRANX can updateEOOS Model with the FireInitiators (Scenarios)
Scenarios IGN Impacts NSP
Scenario 1 Fire Initiator 1 IGN1 Impact1 NSP1Scenario 2 Fire Initiator 2 IGN2 Impact2 NSP2….External EventsHuman Actions
UpdateEOOSModel
QuantifyAnd screen
Import
Import
6© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Scenario Management
• Define fire scenarios
– Zone (supports multiple zones)
– Relevant fire attributes (Duration, size, …)
– Severity factor & non-suppression probability
– Fire Impacts
• Failed equipment, spurious events
7© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Scenario Details
8© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mapping Scenarios to Fire Impacts
• Induced initiator
• Direct impact
• Multi-layer mapping from cable database
• Support for unknown locations
• Support for success and degraded effects if needed
9© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Special fire effects
• Spurious operation
• Changes to HRA due to fire
– New human actions, changed probabilities, blocked recoveries
• Other fire-spceific model changes
10© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Deterministic Evaluation
• Boolean Failure
• Status Panel
11© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
CDF Quantification
• Full PRA model
– Accepts Mutually Exclusive Files, Flags etc.
• Recovery rules
• CDF calculation from CCDP
• Screening / Hiding
12© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Scenario Validation & Refinement
• Ones-run cutsets allows diagnosis
• Track cutsets through fault tree
• Calculate importances
13© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Integration with Risk Monitor
• New PRA model is constructed that includes fire initiators and scenario information (human actions, NSP, etc.)
• Allows simultaneous calculation of all fire impacts
• Model can be used with real-time model in risk monitors such as EOOS
14© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Interface to Cable Data
• FRANX mapping database
• Import from more sophisticated database
• Plant Raceway/Cable Data
• Cable/BE Data
15© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Fire Effects
• Calculates Ignition Frequency and non-suppression probability
• Calculates fire progression and subsequent Equipment Impacts
• Import then into FRANX
16© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Future work
Fire Propagation Model• Incorporate simple calculations of fire frequencies and damage effects
Configuration Risk Management Improvements• Track status of fire barriers, suppression systems, etc.• Ability to change the status of barriers etc.. (not possible now)
Other External Events• Incorporate additional flood & siesmic specific features
17© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
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