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© 2014 IBM Corporation 1
FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EUROPE TO TAKE THE LEAD ?
vollmar@de.ibm.com
Version 31. October 2014
European Economic and Social Committee
Consultative Commission on Industrial Change (CCMI)
Bruxelles 14th of October 2014
© 2014 IBM Corporation 2
� Introduction : Pattern of industrial revolutions
– In an Industrial Revolution productivity rises by a factor X In parallel, society is changing substantial and for ever.
� A Industrie 4.0 : Hype or reality ?. What is the Vision of Industrie 4.0 ? Where do we stand today ??– A-1- Checkpoints : Drivers of industrial revolutions + early indicators
• A 1 1. New level of productivity or new , disruptive industrial capabilities ?.• A 1.2. Massive demand of society for this new capabilitties ?. ?• A 1-3 Substantial change in pattern of society ?.
� B Evalution of chances and opportunities for Europe in Industrie 4.0
� C What is missing ? My vision of the next step
� D Call to action
Industrie 4.0 , a chance for Europe to lead and grow ?
© 2014 IBM Corporation 3
The Vision Industrie 4.0 ( Industrie 4.0 similar to IoT, IIC, Advanced Manu facturing, Industry 5.0 e.a )
Internet of People , Internet of Things , Internet of Services are interconnecting and increasingly are merging. Communication and Cooperation of all participants in realtime enables new value chains and business models.Enabler are available technologies : Networks, software driven intelligent, connected machines and services.Industrial capability to produce lot-size ONE for th e price of a mass-produced good. + F2 productivity, - F2 resources
© 2014 IBM Corporation 4
Industrie 4.0 driven by exponential growth of IT ca pabilities ( F2 per 18 m) Example : Embedded IT-Systems 1961 and 2014
� Apollo Guidance System 1961– 4100 Integrated Circuits– 1 K Byte Cache– 12 K Byte ROM– Taktung 1 Mhz– Connected to Houston Control
» Quelle Wikipedia
� Mid Class Car 2014– > 25 embedded IT-Systems connected by bus– 20 x Power of PC ( Winterkorn, CEO VW, Cebit 2014)– > 3.6 GB System Data per Hour � 1 MB/sec– Per Processor ca.
• >100 Mio Integrated Circuits• 1MB Cache , Taktung > 1 GHz
� Connected to the Internet , other cars + road side services » Quelle
Autosar
Price 400 K USD IT-HW Price 35K Euro inkl Car + Car2Everything Communication
© 2014 IBM Corporation 5
20th century: the mass era
21st century: era of the “new individual”(*)
(*) “… a new awareness that I call psychological self-determination…”
Shoshana Zuboff, Charles Edward Wilson Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School
Industrie 4.0 Motivation : Individuality drives cus tomer demand today
© 2014 IBM Corporation 6
Industrie 4.0 Test Case : Integrate existing machinery in a sheet metal plant
Project – Goals- Vertical Integration of Plant-Automation and
Sensors with IT / ERP System
- Horizontal IT based Integration of existing machinery
- Better productivity + F 1.3- Less resource input - F 1.3
6
7
Industrie 4.0 : Consumer become direct interacting customer
• Challenge : New business model to master. • Chances : Customer demand can be more precisely fulfilled . Cost saving + better ROI • : Additional differentiators, new offerings and enhanced extended customer relationship• Issue : SMBs will have difficulties to build their own connection to customer.
Friedrich Vollmar
Design
Production
Retail
Consumer
Design
Production Communication
Customer
© 2014 IBM Corporation 8
Industrie 4.0 changes market-place patternProductions capabilities and customer interest can meet on digital exchange platforms
Market law ?
Digital Platforms will develop to MONOPOLES accordi ng to Metcalfs Law
Customer
Individualized
Demand +
Interest
Wishes
Individualized Supply
Capabilities
Producer +
Service-
provider
Pin
Interest
Demand
Wishes
Markets for existing productsClassical Markets
Bourses
Market-Economy
Markets for future products
Industrie 4.0 enables new pattern of markets
Exchange Platform
Connects Interest with Offerings
Posting
Offerings +
Capabilities
© 2014 IBM Corporation 9
� One single European Market – Place ,– Equal , well defined proven markets rigths for all players
• Key for SMB , the backbone of our industry , to have level playing field– BUT : One size for all does not fit to European people ,culture and inheritage at all
• Disentvantage in scale of economics compared to more unified markets ( US, China )
� High Quality , individualized trusted Products + Se rvices are our differentiator in WW markets today.• Europes industry is good in teaming ( f.e Airbus, ISOBUS, SWIFT, ) and complex solutions.• Industrie 4.0 is all about teaming cross industries and companies • Consultant studies forcast additional growth in Europe based on Industrie 4.0 (Bitkom, Roland Berger , PWC , e.a)
– BUT : We produce at high cost , increasingly challenged by cheaper mass-produced copies.
� Industrie 4.0 can turn European disadvantages into major advantages. – Better fitting services and products for the individualized needs + demands of European Societies – Re-enforce our existing industrial strength to a level playing field with mass-producing societies – Opportunities for new value chains , in special combinations of trusted services and new products. – The expected growing demand for individual products and trusted services can position Europe in a WW leadership position – Combine proven + accepted legal market place framew ork with innovative digital industrie 4.0 exchange platform
• Exchange platform allows SMB to offer and do busin ess ww.
Industrie 4.0 has the potential to make Europe the leading economy + society of the 21 century.
Evaluation of the potential of Industrie 4.0 for Eu rope
© 2014 IBM Corporation 10
What is missing ? The IoT assessment of GardnerQuelle Gardner Report July 2014
� Gardner Hype Cycle for Internet of Things July 2014
� Concerns / Issues
– Who owns the data ?
– Customer relationship• Who does the customer want the
Relationship with ?
– Standards. Missing or to many diverse
– IoT security lags behind IoT technology• Things interfere with public safety
– Integrate Legacy Things
– Bring IT and OT to cooperation(OT = operation technology)
We are here
© 2014 IBM Corporation 11
�
Proven Pattern Market – Place to be extended to Digi tal Market – Places
Defined location : The Market place
Defined legal framework : The market rigth
Defined law enforcement + control Public
Infrastructure
Same rules
for all markets
Participants
Demand
Customer
Consumer
Supply
Producer
Service-
offerings
Selection
Choices
of
products
Classical Markets
Bourses
Market-Economy
© 2014 IBM Corporation 12
Democratizing Metcalf Law :Extend proven markets-place pattern to the digital exchange platform
Defined location : The Market place
Defined legal framework : The market rigth
Defined law enforcement + control Public
Infrastructure
Same rules
for all markets
Participants
Customer
Individualized
Interests
Demand +
Wishes
Individualized Supply
Capabilities
Producer +
Service-
providerPosting
Demand
Wishes
Classical Markets
Bourses
Market-Economy
Industrie 4.0 Exchange
Secure + trusted
Industrie 4.0 Exchange Platform
Connects Demand with Offerings
Posting
Offerings +
Capabilities
© 2014 IBM Corporation 13
. The task ahead: The 5 Dimensions of Industrie 4.0
Industrie 4.0 demands cross-branches, cross-company , public-private Teamwork
Moving forward in all 5 dimensions will make indust rie 4.0 reality
User AcceptanceUseability
ROI ���� Demand
Legacy Integration Metcalfs+Reeds Laws
Standardization of communication and cooperation
Protocols, ConnectionPlatform, Semantics
Legal FrameworkSecurity + Safety
Secure , trusted solid InfrastructurOwnership of data + Liabilities
Governance + legal approvement
Understand Metcalf s law
IT / IoT Technology
Enables new opportunities for Innovation
and Industrial capabilities
© 2014 IBM Corporation 14
. Industrie 4.0. represents a massive chance for Euro pe.Let ´́́́s get it done together !!! Packen wir es an !!!
Thank You for Your attention
RechtsrahmenSecurity + Safety
Eigentumsrechte+ProdukthaftungGovernance + Zulassungen
IoT Technik
Schafft neue Möglichkeiten für Innovation
Nutzer AkzeptanzNutzen
ROI
Legacy Anbindung
Metcalfs+Reeds Regeln
Standardisierung Der Kommunikation und Kooperation
Protokolle, Vermittlung, Semantik
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