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Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
Soil Fertility, Fertilizer, and the Maize Green
Revolution in East Africa
Tomoya Matsumoto and Takashi Yamano(FASID/GRIPS)
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
Introduction Maize and Fertilizer Use in Kenya and Uganda Data and Descriptive Analysis
Data Dairy Production Systems and Organic Fertilizer
Use Maize Costs, Income, and Profit Estimation Results
Determinants of Fertilizer Use Determinants of Maize Yield
Conclusions
Contents
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
There is a growing interests in realizing an African Green Revolution.
Kenya and Uganda provide an interesting contrast in maize production: Kenya high inputs, Uganda low inputs.
In this study, we compare maize production in these countries to identify constraints on maize production
Introduction
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
To describe fertilizer use and maize production, by calculating costs, income, and profit in Kenya and Uganda
To Estimate the determinants of the maize yield, including soil fertility, inorganic and organic fertilizer applications.
Is it profitable to use fertilizer?
Purpose of This Study
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Maize in Kenya and Uganda
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
Nitrogen Consumption in Kenya and Uganda
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
RePEAT Panel data Kenya: 2004 and 2007, 725 rural households Uganda: 2003 and 2005, 895 households
Soil Sampling at the first survey Kenya about 77 percent Uganda about 67 percent
Data
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Survey Areas
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All Purchased HYV Maize
Local/ Recycled
Maize HYV
Difference
Number of Plots 3,131
(100%)
1,848
(59.0%)
1,283
(41.0%)
Maize Yield (kg/ha) 1,986 2,172 1,718 454*
Inorganic Fertilizer Use
(kg/ha)
94.7 119.4 59.2 60.2**
Organic Fertilizer Used
(kg/ha)
1,935 2,258 1,471 787**
Carbon Content (%) 2.48 2.59 2.33 0.26**
Table 1. Summary Statistics in Kenya
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All Purchased HYV Maize
Local/ Recycled
Maize HYV
Difference
Number of Plots 3,198
(100%)
680
(21.3%)
2,518
(78.7%)
Maize Yield (kg/ha) 1,561 1,719 1,518 202
Inorganic Fertilizer Use
(kg/ha)
2.4 9.1 0.6 8.5**
Organic Fertilizer Used
(kg/ha)
86 142 71 71
Carbon Content (%) 2.35 2.15 2.40 -0.25**
Table 1. Summary Statistics in Uganda
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Soil Nutrient Indicator
N: soil nutrient indicator, E: soil condition,C: inorganic fertilizer, O: organic fertilizer
Maize Yield Function
L: plot size, S: seed quantity, A: TFP
),,( pitpitipit OCENN
iptNSL eNSLAY pitpitpitipit
iptiptNiptSiptLiipt nslay
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
We control for the household fixed effects to eliminate biases created by the correlation between the household fixed effects and independent variables.
We apply the endogenous switching model to control for the maize seed type selection.
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Main Hypotheses
Does the soil fertility increase returns from external fertilizer applications?
Is the inorganic fertilizer application optimal?
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Maize Yield
Fertilizer Application(DAP)
Maize Price
Fertilizer Price
Uganda Kenya
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Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
We do not find that the returns from external fertilizer depend on the soil fertility.
This suggests that the external fertilizer applications would be useful even on poor soils in Uganda and Kenya.
The soil carbon content has a large impact on the maize yield.
The inorganic fertilizer use in Kenya is at about the optimal application rate.
Main Findings
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To increase the inorganic fertilizer use. We need to reduce the fertilizer–maize relative price.
Because we find a large positive impact of the carbon content, the results suggest that it is important to improve the soil fertility.
To do so, the organic fertilizer use has to increase. This is a new area for future research.
Policy Implications
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In Uganda
Experiments in Jan-Feb 2009, providing a package of HYV seeds, fertilizer, and extension to households in randomly selected villages of RePEAT Samples
Conduct a survey in 2010 to evaluate the impacts
In Kenya
Experiments in 2010 on crop insurance?
Conduct a survey in 2011
What’s next for RePEAT Survey?
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