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Forward Capacity Market Revised Stop Loss and PPR. Joel Newton NextEra Energy Resources. October 8, 2013. NextEra concurs with the ISO’s proposed annual stop loss, but believe the monthly stop loss continues to be flawed. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Forward Capacity MarketRevised Stop Loss and PPR
Joel NewtonNextEra Energy Resources
October 8, 2013
2
NextEra concurs with the ISO’s proposed annual stop loss, but believe the monthly stop loss continues to be flawed
PPR= $ 5,455
ISO Proposal NextEra Original Proposal
Monthly Stop-loss Annual Stop-loss Monthly Stop-loss Annual Stop-loss
Capacity Clearing Price
Maximum Net Loss ($15 -
CCP)Net Missed
Hours
Maximum Net Loss
(3x Monthly)Net Missed
Hours*
Maximum Net Loss (1.5 *
CCP)Net Missed
Hours
Maximum Net Loss (20%
Annual CCP)Net Missed
Hours*
1 14.0 2.7 42.0 9.9 1.5 0.5 2.4 2.6
2 13.0 2.7 39.0 11.5 3.0 0.9 4.8 5.3
3 12.0 2.7 36.0 13.2 4.5 1.4 7.2 7.9
4 11.0 2.7 33.0 14.8 6.0 1.8 9.6 10.6
5 10.0 2.7 30.0 16.5 7.5 2.3 12.0 13.2
6 9.0 2.7 27.0 18.1 9.0 2.7 14.4 15.8
7 8.0 2.7 24.0 19.8 10.5 3.2 16.8 18.5
8 7.0 2.7 21.0 21.4 12.0 3.7 19.2 21.1
9 6.0 2.7 18.0 23.1 13.5 4.1 21.6 23.8
10 5.0 2.7 15.0 24.7 15.0 4.6 24.0 26.4
11 4.0 2.7 12.0 26.4 16.5 5.0 26.4 29.0
12 3.0 2.7 9.0 28.0 18.0 5.5 28.8 31.7
13 2.0 2.7 6.0 29.7 19.5 6.0 31.2 34.3
14 1.0 2.7 3.0 31.3 21.0 6.4 33.6 37.0
15 0.0 2.7 0.0 33.0 22.5 6.9 36.0 39.6
* Excluding hours in excess of monthly-stop loss cap.
3
The annual stop loss for a resource receiving $14.99/kW-mo. is $0.03/kW-year; at $2.76/kW-mo. its $36.72/kW-year
PPR= $ 2,000
ISO Proposal NextEra Original Proposal
Monthly Stop-loss Annual Stop-loss Monthly Stop-loss Annual Stop-loss
Capacity Clearing
Price
Maximum Net Loss
($15 - CCP)Net Missed
Hours
Maximum Net Loss
(3x Monthly)Net Missed
Hours*
Maximum Net Loss
(1.5 * CCP)Net Missed
Hours
Maximum Net Loss (20%
Annual CCP)Net Missed
Hours*
1 14.0 7.5 42.0 27.0 1.5 1.3 2.4 7.2
2 13.0 7.5 39.0 31.5 3.0 2.5 4.8 14.4
3 12.0 7.5 36.0 36.0 4.5 3.8 7.2 21.6
4 11.0 7.5 33.0 40.5 6.0 5.0 9.6 28.8
5 10.0 7.5 30.0 45.0 7.5 6.3 12.0 36.0
6 9.0 7.5 27.0 49.5 9.0 7.5 14.4 43.2
7 8.0 7.5 24.0 54.0 10.5 8.8 16.8 50.4
8 7.0 7.5 21.0 58.5 12.0 10.0 19.2 57.6
9 6.0 7.5 18.0 63.0 13.5 11.3 21.6 64.8
10 5.0 7.5 15.0 67.5 15.0 12.5 24.0 72.0
11 4.0 7.5 12.0 72.0 16.5 13.8 26.4 79.2
12 3.0 7.5 9.0 76.5 18.0 15.0 28.8 86.4
13 2.0 7.5 6.0 81.0 19.5 16.3 31.2 93.6
14 1.0 7.5 3.0 85.5 21.0 17.5 33.6 100.8
15 0.0 7.5 0.0 90.0 22.5 18.8 36.0 108.0
* Excluding hours in excess of monthly-stop loss cap.
4
Can Analysis Group’s FCM PI Objectives Be Met?
• Quantity of resources continuing to participate in ISO-NE markets will increase under PI compared to current rules– FCA 8 non-price retirements
• Performance risk associated with gas supply curtailment will be mitigated through increased dual fuel capability– Incremental dual fuel capability of 5,848 MW to 7,368 MW for
gas shortage and high gas shortage cases
• FCM PI will shift the resources that remain economically viable in the markets towards a more flexible mix
Lowering the PPR may significantly affect the benefits ISO expects from the implementation of FCM PI
5
The ISO has not demonstrated that a PPR of $2000 will meet its reliability objectives (i.e., increased dual fuel units)
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