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Field Monitoring for LULUCF Field Monitoring for LULUCF ProjectsProjects
Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund ProjectsTraining Seminar for BioCarbon Fund ProjectsFebruary 6February 6thth 2008 2008
Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. WalkerWinrock International
Project Monitoring – Project Monitoring – Components:Components:
Carbon stocksCarbon stocks LeakageLeakage Project Emissions Project Emissions Project implementationProject implementation
Forest EstablishmentForest Establishment Forest Management Forest Management Project BoundaryProject Boundary
Project Monitoring – Project Monitoring – Goals:Goals:
Estimate GHG sequestration or avoided Estimate GHG sequestration or avoided emissions by projectemissions by project Estimate changes in carbon stocks Estimate changes in carbon stocks Estimate emissions caused by projectEstimate emissions caused by project
Overall Goal:Overall Goal: Conservatively estimate changes with low Conservatively estimate changes with low
uncertainty, minimizing errorsuncertainty, minimizing errors
Project MonitoringProject Monitoring
Detailed monitoring plan will need to be Detailed monitoring plan will need to be created for each component monitoredcreated for each component monitored Standard operating procedures for collectionStandard operating procedures for collection Excel data sheets and calculation toolsExcel data sheets and calculation tools Frequency of collectionFrequency of collection Tools to monitor and reduce errorTools to monitor and reduce error Protocol for data storageProtocol for data storage Project member responsible for data Project member responsible for data
collection, analysis and storagecollection, analysis and storage
Monitoring Project Monitoring Project ImplementationImplementation
Forest EstablishmentForest Establishment Site preparation conforms to PDDSite preparation conforms to PDD Species and planting density inline with PDDSpecies and planting density inline with PDD
Forest ManagementForest Management Cleaning and thinningCleaning and thinning FertilizationFertilization HarvestingHarvesting
Monitoring Carbon StocksMonitoring Carbon Stocks
Should you monitor the baseline?Should you monitor the baseline? When project starts baseline no longer existsWhen project starts baseline no longer exists
Proxy sites?Proxy sites? No proxy in avoided deforestationNo proxy in avoided deforestation Possible in FM and AR but doubles monitoring costsPossible in FM and AR but doubles monitoring costs
Monitor projectMonitor project Monitor project areaMonitor project area Monitor project carbon stocksMonitor project carbon stocks
IPCC GPG Chapter 4.3IPCC GPG Chapter 4.3
Provides good practice guidance for JI and Provides good practice guidance for JI and CDM projects and includes guidance on:CDM projects and includes guidance on: defining project boundaries defining project boundaries measuring, monitoring, and estimating changes in measuring, monitoring, and estimating changes in
carbon stocks and non-COcarbon stocks and non-CO22 greenhouse gases greenhouse gases
implementing plans to measure and monitor implementing plans to measure and monitor developing quality assurance and quality control developing quality assurance and quality control
plansplans
0
25
50
75
100
125
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
Car
bon
(t C
/ha)
Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan BaselineBaseline
Step 1: Step 1: MEASUREMEASURE Carbon at beginning of project Carbon at beginning of project
14 t C/ha
0
25
50
75
100
125
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
Car
bon
(t C
/ha)
Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan BaselineBaseline
Step 1: Carbon at beginning of projectStep 1: Carbon at beginning of project Step 2: Step 2: ESTIMATEESTIMATE Carbon over time Carbon over time
E.g.: Change in Carbon StocksE.g.: Change in Carbon Stocks
Baseline:14 t C/ha
Baseline: Year 40
32 t C/ha
0
25
50
75
100
125
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
Car
bon
(t C
/ha)
Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan Project: Plant TreesProject: Plant Trees
Step 1: Carbon at beginning of projectStep 1: Carbon at beginning of project Step 2: Step 2: MEASUREMEASURE Carbon over time Carbon over time
Project: Year 40110 t C/ha
Baseline: Year 4032 t C/ha
0
25
50
75
100
125
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Time (years)
Car
bon
(t C
/ha)
Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan Project: Plant TreesProject: Plant Trees
Step 1: Carbon at beginning of projectStep 1: Carbon at beginning of project Step 2: Carbon over timeStep 2: Carbon over time
40 years Net Sequestered: 110 - 32 = 78 t C/ha40 years Net Sequestered: 110 - 32 = 78 t C/ha
Project: Year 40110 t C/ha
Baseline: Year 4032 t C/ha
Accuracy and precisionAccuracy and precision Accuracy:Accuracy:
agreement between the agreement between the true value and repeated true value and repeated measured observations measured observations or estimationsor estimations
PrecisionPrecision illustrates the level of illustrates the level of
agreement among agreement among repeated measurements repeated measurements of the same quantityof the same quantity
Accurate but not precise
Precisebut not accurate
Accurate and Precise
Accurate but
imprecise
145
95
170
110
80
Average 120
95 % confidence interval
45.8
True mean of forest carbon stock = 120 t
C/ha
Accurate but
imprecise
Inaccurate but
precise
145 180
95 183
170 177
110 178
80 182
Average 120 180
95 % confidence interval
45.8 3.2
True mean of forest carbon stock = 120 t
C/ha
Accurate and
Precise
Accurate but
imprecise
Inaccurate but
precise
118 145 180
123 95 183
121 170 177
118 110 178
120 80 182
Average 120 120 180
95 % confidence interval
2.6 45.8 3.2
True mean of forest carbon stock = 120 t
C/ha
Developing a Developing a measurement planmeasurement plan
Define project boundary
Stratify project area
Decide which carbon pools to measure
Develop sampling design--plot type, shape, size, number, and layout
Determine measurement frequency
May been different sets of ‘boundaries’ May been different sets of ‘boundaries’ in the projectin the project Project area = where participants are Project area = where participants are
doing activitiesdoing activities A/R CDM project boundary = this ONLY A/R CDM project boundary = this ONLY
contains the areas where trees will be contains the areas where trees will be planted for carbon creditsplanted for carbon credits
Forest Enrichment/Protection boundary Forest Enrichment/Protection boundary = forestry area where voluntary carbon = forestry area where voluntary carbon credits will be accountedcredits will be accounted
Define project Define project boundaryboundary
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
For accurate measuring and monitoring, For accurate measuring and monitoring, boundaries must be clearly defined from boundaries must be clearly defined from start of projectstart of project Also a requirement for project registrationAlso a requirement for project registration
Goal is to monitor that boundaries do not Goal is to monitor that boundaries do not change through project due to change through project due to encroachment, disturbanceencroachment, disturbance
Define boundaries using features on map Define boundaries using features on map or coordinates attained using a global or coordinates attained using a global positioning systempositioning system
Maintain areas in GISMaintain areas in GIS
Define project Define project boundaryboundary
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Maximize the area for carbon creditsMaximize the area for carbon credits Easy and efficient to monitor and verify Easy and efficient to monitor and verify
using GPSusing GPS Excludes areas that have little to no Excludes areas that have little to no
carbon benefitcarbon benefit Excludes areas where baseline carbon Excludes areas where baseline carbon
stocks (and leakage) are more difficult stocks (and leakage) are more difficult to estimate than the potential carbon to estimate than the potential carbon benefit warrants (e.g., villages)benefit warrants (e.g., villages)
Define project Define project boundaryboundary
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Project can vary in size: 10’s ha Project can vary in size: 10’s ha 1000’s ha1000’s ha
Project can be one contiguous block Project can be one contiguous block OR many small blocks of land spread OR many small blocks of land spread over a wide area over a wide area
One OR many landownersOne OR many landowners Only includes lands that meet Only includes lands that meet
eligibility conditionseligibility conditions
Define project Define project boundaryboundary
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Principles of monitoring Principles of monitoring carboncarbon Methods for measuring carbon credits are Methods for measuring carbon credits are
based on measuring changes in carbon based on measuring changes in carbon stocksstocks
Not practical to measure everything - so we Not practical to measure everything - so we samplesample
Sample subset of land by taking relevant Sample subset of land by taking relevant measurements of selected pool measurements of selected pool components in plotscomponents in plots
Number of plots measured predetermined Number of plots measured predetermined to ensure both to ensure both accuracyaccuracy and and precisionprecision
Principles of monitoring Principles of monitoring carboncarbon There is a trade-off between the desired There is a trade-off between the desired
precision level of carbon-stock estimates and precision level of carbon-stock estimates and costcost
In general, the costs will increase with:In general, the costs will increase with: Greater spatial variability of the carbon stocksGreater spatial variability of the carbon stocks The number of pools that need to be monitored; The number of pools that need to be monitored; Precision level that is targeted; Precision level that is targeted; Frequency of monitoring; Frequency of monitoring; Complexity of monitoring methods. Complexity of monitoring methods.
Stratification of the project lands into a number Stratification of the project lands into a number of relatively homogeneous units can reduce the of relatively homogeneous units can reduce the number of plots needed.number of plots needed.
Stratify Project AreaStratify Project Area If different areas will contain different amounts If different areas will contain different amounts
of carbon, ‘stratify’ project = divide area into of carbon, ‘stratify’ project = divide area into different ‘strata’different ‘strata’
Stratify based on factors that will affect Stratify based on factors that will affect CARBON stockCARBON stock
One stratum can be made up of one large block One stratum can be made up of one large block of land or several small blocks of land, as long of land or several small blocks of land, as long all of the blocks have similar carbon stocksall of the blocks have similar carbon stocks
Baseline strata:
Grazing land – 10,000 ha
Crop land – 8,000 ha
Not part of carbon project
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Stratify Project AreaStratify Project Area Will most likely have separate strata for Will most likely have separate strata for
baseline and monitoringbaseline and monitoring Must monitor area of each strata over projectMust monitor area of each strata over project Area and number of strata may change over Area and number of strata may change over
life of projectlife of project
Baseline strata:
Grazing land – 10,000 ha
Crop land – 8,000 has
Not part of carbon project
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Project strata:
Agroforestry
Natural forest restoration
Stratify Project AreaStratify Project Area Land useLand use SlopeSlope Drainage e.g. flooded, dryDrainage e.g. flooded, dry ElevationElevation Proximity to villages, townsProximity to villages, towns Age of vegetation e.g. ‘cohort’Age of vegetation e.g. ‘cohort’ Species composition, stand Species composition, stand
modelmodel
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Decide which carbon Decide which carbon pools to measurepools to measure
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Soil or Peat Carbon
AG non-tree non-woodyvegetation
Above Ground Live Trees
LitterDead wood
Belowground Live Trees (roots)
Above Ground Non-tree Woody
Wood products
Selection of pools depends on:Selection of pools depends on: Expected rate of changeExpected rate of change Expected magnitude and direction of changeExpected magnitude and direction of change Availability of methods, accuracy and cost of Availability of methods, accuracy and cost of
methods to measure and monitormethods to measure and monitor
For afforestation and reforestation over < For afforestation and reforestation over < 60 years it is always most economic and 60 years it is always most economic and efficient to measure live tree biomass efficient to measure live tree biomass (above and belowground) (above and belowground)
Decide which carbon Decide which carbon pools to measurepools to measure
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Decide which Carbon Decide which Carbon poolspools
MUST measure ALL pools that MUST measure ALL pools that predicted to be smaller in project predicted to be smaller in project than in baseline than in baseline
0
25
50
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
Car
bon
(t C
/ha)
Under project
Baseline
0
25
50
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
Car
bon
(t C
/ha)
Under project
Baseline
Required: Optional:
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Decide which carbon Decide which carbon pools to measurepools to measure
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Project TypeProject TypeCarbon PoolsCarbon Pools
Live BiomassLive Biomass Dead BiomassDead BiomassSoilSoil
WoodWoodTreesTrees UnderstoryUnderstory RootsRoots FineFine CoarseCoarse ProductsProducts
-Restore native forests-Restore native forests YY MM YY MM MM MM NN
-Plantations for timber-Plantations for timber YY NN YY MM MM MM YY
-Agroforestry-Agroforestry YY YY YY NN NN MM MM
-Soil carbon management-Soil carbon management NN MM MM MM NN YY NN
-Short-rotation plantations-Short-rotation plantations YY NN MM NN NN MM **
-Forest management-Forest management YY MM NN MM YY NN YY
-Reduce deforestation-Reduce deforestation YY MM YY MM MM MM YY
Y=recommended, M=maybe, N=not recommended, * Stores carbon in unburned fossil fuelsY=recommended, M=maybe, N=not recommended, * Stores carbon in unburned fossil fuels
Selection of pools varies by project typeSelection of pools varies by project type Different measuring and monitoring designs Different measuring and monitoring designs
are needed for different types of projectsare needed for different types of projects
Sampling Design:Sampling Design:Distribution of plotsDistribution of plots
Sample units must be located Sample units must be located without bias without bias Randomly distribute sample units Randomly distribute sample units
using GISusing GIS
The entirety of the project site The entirety of the project site should be sampled should be sampled
To ensure above, location of plots To ensure above, location of plots determined prior to field workdetermined prior to field work
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Type of plotsType of plots
Permanent plotsPermanent plots Statistically more efficient for Statistically more efficient for
measurements through timemeasurements through time Permit verificationPermit verification Must mark trees to track ingrowth Must mark trees to track ingrowth
and mortalityand mortality
Temporary plotsTemporary plots Measurements made only one timeMeasurements made only one time
Preliminary dataPreliminary data
Non-tree poolsNon-tree pools
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots
Number of plots:Number of plots: Identify the desired precision level Identify the desired precision level
±10 % of the mean is most common±10 % of the mean is most common
but as low as ±20 % of the mean but as low as ±20 % of the mean could be usedcould be used
Collect Collect preliminary datapreliminary data to to estimate variability of carbon stocksestimate variability of carbon stocks
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots
Preliminary data collection:Preliminary data collection: Collect data in areas similar to what Collect data in areas similar to what
vegetation will be in your project and vegetation will be in your project and baselinebaseline
For example: collect data in:For example: collect data in: 5-10 year old forest5-10 year old forest 20-30 year old forest20-30 year old forest
Randomly locate ~10 plots within each Randomly locate ~10 plots within each stratastrata
Take field measurements using same Take field measurements using same methods will use for measurement methods will use for measurement planplan
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots
Estimate mean carbon stock and Estimate mean carbon stock and variance from preliminary datavariance from preliminary data
Calculate the required number of Calculate the required number of plots using equation or Excel plot plots using equation or Excel plot calculator filecalculator file
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots
More variable C stocks More variable C stocks more plots more plots needed for precision levelneeded for precision level
If a stratified project area requires If a stratified project area requires more plots than an unstratified area more plots than an unstratified area remove 1+ strata remove 1+ strata
If strata analyzed together If strata analyzed together C C stocks in each strata cannot be stocks in each strata cannot be reported separately but fewer plots reported separately but fewer plots needed to attain precision levelneeded to attain precision level
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots
Non-tree biomass pools:Non-tree biomass pools: Above method can be usedAbove method can be used OR: # non-tree pools in proportion OR: # non-tree pools in proportion
to # tree plotsto # tree plotsFor example:For example: For every tree plot, sample:For every tree plot, sample:
Single 100 m line transect for dead Single 100 m line transect for dead woodwood
4 sub-plots for herbaceous, forest 4 sub-plots for herbaceous, forest floor, soilfloor, soil
May result in large variance, but overall May result in large variance, but overall amount small in comparison to tree amount small in comparison to tree carbon stockcarbon stock
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Achieving Precision – Noel Achieving Precision – Noel KempffKempff
81
14 40
100
200
300
400
500
0 10 20 30
Precision Level +/- %
Num
ber o
f plo
ts
452
Cost of Precision – Noel Cost of Precision – Noel KempffKempff
050
100150200250300350
Mon
itorin
g C
ost
($10
00s)
5% 10% 20% 30%Precision Level
VariableFixed
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Shape of plotsShape of plots
TreesTrees Large trees:Large trees: few, very spread outfew, very spread out Small trees:Small trees: many, close togethermany, close together
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Shape of plotsShape of plots
Nested plotsNested plots efficient for regenerating forests with efficient for regenerating forests with
trees growing into new size classestrees growing into new size classes Plots can be either circular or squarePlots can be either circular or square ~10 stems per strata ‘rule of thumb’ ~10 stems per strata ‘rule of thumb’
to determine plot sizeto determine plot size
Single size plotsSingle size plots Requires lower expertiseRequires lower expertise can be efficient where trees will be planted can be efficient where trees will be planted
and will be single-agedand will be single-aged
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design:Sampling Design:Shape of plotsShape of plots
The schematic diagram below represents a three-nest circular sampling plot.
Large plot –
radius 20 m, trees > 50 cm dbh
Intermediate plot –
radius 14 m, trees 20-50 cm dbh
Small plot –
radius 4 m, trees 5-20 cm dbh
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Carbon pool measurement Carbon pool measurement methodsmethods
Develop standard methods to Develop standard methods to collect carbon pool collect carbon pool measurementsmeasurements
Develop standard methods to Develop standard methods to calculate carbon stocks, calculate carbon stocks, according to approved according to approved methodologymethodology
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Carbon pool measurement Carbon pool measurement methodsmethods
Project must verify existing Project must verify existing allometric equations or volume allometric equations or volume and BEF equationsand BEF equations
Can use allometric equations for Can use allometric equations for one stratum, volume+BEF for one stratum, volume+BEF for another stratumanother stratum
Alternatively, may need to create Alternatively, may need to create local equationslocal equations
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Frequency of Frequency of measurementmeasurement
For CDM verification and For CDM verification and certification must occur every five certification must occur every five yearsyears
It is therefore logical to re-measure It is therefore logical to re-measure at this timeat this time
However, for slowly changing pools However, for slowly changing pools such as soil it will be necessary to such as soil it will be necessary to measure less frequentlymeasure less frequently
Define Project Boundary
Stratify
Which carbon pools?
Sampling design
Measurement frequency
Field Measurement Techniques
Carbon vs BiomassCarbon vs Biomass
Generally:Generally:
Carbon = 50% of BiomassCarbon = 50% of Biomass
Create PlotCreate Plot Install permanent measuring and Install permanent measuring and
monitoring plots in a standard designmonitoring plots in a standard design Permanently mark plot center and locate with a Permanently mark plot center and locate with a
GPSGPS
Plots marked with rebar and PVC, trees marked with aluminum nails and tags
Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - tree biomasstree biomass
In each strata, measure In each strata, measure DBH of appropriate size DBH of appropriate size treestrees
DBH measured at 1.3 m DBH measured at 1.3 m above the ground with a above the ground with a DBH tapeDBH tape
Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - tree biomasstree biomass– Allometric – Allometric equationsequations
Local regression equations in literatureLocal regression equations in literature Verify applicability of equation(s) through Verify applicability of equation(s) through
limited destructive sampling or volume limited destructive sampling or volume and wood density estimationsand wood density estimations
If no equations exist, need to harvest and If no equations exist, need to harvest and measure a representative sample of measure a representative sample of trees to develop equationstrees to develop equations
Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - tree biomass– Allometric tree biomass– Allometric equationsequations
1008060402000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Ab
oveg
rou
nd
bio
mass
(kg
/tre
e)
Diameter (cm)
Temperate hardwoods-34 species
r2 = 0.99N = 454
(Schroeder et al. 1997) 100080060040020000
100
200
300
TropicsTemperateBorealModel
Aboveground biomass density (Mg/ha)
Root
bio
mass d
en
sit
y (
Mg
/ha)
RBD = exp[-1.085+0.926 ln (ABD)]r^2 = 0.83; N = 151
Estimate carbon pools –Estimate carbon pools –Dead woodDead wood
Dead wood can be a Dead wood can be a significant component of significant component of biomass poolsbiomass pools Particularly in mature Particularly in mature
forests – not eligible in forests – not eligible in first reporting periodfirst reporting period
For standing dead trees For standing dead trees estimate biomass using estimate biomass using regression equations or regression equations or volume from detailed volume from detailed measurementsmeasurements
Estimate carbon pools–Estimate carbon pools–Understory/herbaceous Understory/herbaceous vegetationvegetation
Use small framesUse small frames Frame placed on Frame placed on
groundground Cut all herbaceous Cut all herbaceous
vegetation, remove vegetation, remove leaf litter, within the leaf litter, within the frameframe
Place in new Place in new location on repeat location on repeat measurementsmeasurements
Aluminum or PVC frame of ~60 cm2 is placed on the ground
Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - Mineral soil carbonMineral soil carbon
Expose mineral soil Expose mineral soil surface surface
Collect 4 samples, mix and Collect 4 samples, mix and sieve for C analysissieve for C analysis
Collect samples for bulk Collect samples for bulk density in each plotdensity in each plot
Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - Mineral soil carbonMineral soil carbon
How deep to sample?How deep to sample? trade-off among magnitude of change expected, trade-off among magnitude of change expected,
detectability of change, precision, and costdetectability of change, precision, and cost
How many samples?How many samples? relates to desired precision and costrelates to desired precision and cost unlike trees where change can be measured directly unlike trees where change can be measured directly
(measure same trees through time), a new soil (measure same trees through time), a new soil sample is collected each timesample is collected each time results in decreased precision of change in carbon stocks results in decreased precision of change in carbon stocks
for soilfor soil
Monitoring Project Monitoring Project EmissionsEmissions
Tracking:Tracking: Vehicle and machinery useVehicle and machinery use Use of fertilizersUse of fertilizers Use of fireUse of fire Incidental firesIncidental fires Livestock emissionsLivestock emissions
Monitoring LeakageMonitoring Leakage
All projectsAll projects Monitoring vehicle useMonitoring vehicle use
Some projectsSome projects Activity shiftingActivity shifting
Tracking individualsTracking individuals Tracking livestockTracking livestock Tracking wood fuel useTracking wood fuel use
All require good organization and good All require good organization and good database skillsdatabase skills
Minimizing Project ErrorsMinimizing Project Errors
Errors will arise through:Errors will arise through: Poorly chosen methodsPoorly chosen methods Poorly applied methodsPoorly applied methods Insufficient samplingInsufficient sampling
Errors can be predicted and minimized to Errors can be predicted and minimized to decrease project costs and maximize decrease project costs and maximize claimable creditsclaimable credits
Sources of error in Sources of error in estimating carbon poolsestimating carbon pools
For estimating carbon stocks, three main For estimating carbon stocks, three main sources of error are:sources of error are: Sampling error—number and selection of plots to Sampling error—number and selection of plots to
represent the population of interestrepresent the population of interest Measurement error —e.g. errors in field Measurement error —e.g. errors in field
measurements of tree diameters, laboratory measurements of tree diameters, laboratory analysis of soil samplesanalysis of soil samples
Regression error — e.g. based on use of regression Regression error — e.g. based on use of regression equations to convert diameters to biomass equations to convert diameters to biomass
All these sources can be quantified and All these sources can be quantified and “added”“added”
UncertaintyUncertainty
Two methods for determining uncertainty in Two methods for determining uncertainty in estimatesestimates Error PropagationError Propagation
Monte Carlo Analysis Monte Carlo Analysis (commercial software available)(commercial software available) Complex but should be used if there are correlations Complex but should be used if there are correlations
between datasets or if error (>100 %)between datasets or if error (>100 %) Correlations will exist between various measured carbon Correlations will exist between various measured carbon
pools and between estimates at different timespools and between estimates at different times
22
21 %95%95%95 TimeTime CICICITotal
e.g.
Quality Quality Assurance/Quality Assurance/Quality Control plansControl plans Monitoring requires provisions for quality assurance Monitoring requires provisions for quality assurance
(QA) and quality control (QC) to be implemented via a (QA) and quality control (QC) to be implemented via a QA/QC planQA/QC plan
= How to guarantee that methods are applied correctly= How to guarantee that methods are applied correctly The plan should become part of project documentation The plan should become part of project documentation
and cover the following procedures:and cover the following procedures: collecting reliable field measurements; collecting reliable field measurements; verifying methods used to collect field data;verifying methods used to collect field data; verifying data entry and analysis techniques; verifying data entry and analysis techniques; data maintenance and archiving. data maintenance and archiving.
QA/QC field QA/QC field measurementsmeasurements Develop a set of Standard Operating Procedures Develop a set of Standard Operating Procedures
(SOPs)(SOPs) Thorough training of all field crews in procedures, Thorough training of all field crews in procedures,
followed by:followed by: Hot Checks - supervisor visits crew in field and Hot Checks - supervisor visits crew in field and
verifies measurementsverifies measurements Cold Checks - supervisor revisits plots after the Cold Checks - supervisor revisits plots after the
departure of crew and reviews recorded departure of crew and reviews recorded measurementsmeasurements
Blind Checks - supervisor re-measures a proportion Blind Checks - supervisor re-measures a proportion of plots with no knowledge of data recorded by crewof plots with no knowledge of data recorded by crew
QA/QC for laboratory QA/QC for laboratory measurements, data measurements, data entry, and archivingentry, and archiving
Laboratory measurementsLaboratory measurements check equipment and measurement with check equipment and measurement with
known quantity samples added blindlyknown quantity samples added blindly
Data entryData entry test of out of range valuestest of out of range values recheck proportion for errorsrecheck proportion for errors
ArchivingArchiving off-site storage of dataoff-site storage of data
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Team at Winrock InternationalTeam at Winrock International Including Sandra Brown, Ken MacDicken, Including Sandra Brown, Ken MacDicken,
David Shoch, Matt Delaney and John David Shoch, Matt Delaney and John KadyszewskiKadyszewski
Funding agenciesFunding agencies Including TNC, USAID, USFS, UNDP and Including TNC, USAID, USFS, UNDP and
World BankWorld Bank
Thank You!Thank You!
For more information see:For more information see: http://www.winrock.org/Ecosystems/tools.asphttp://www.winrock.org/Ecosystems/tools.asp
Or contact us:Or contact us: tpearson@winrock.orgtpearson@winrock.org swalker@winrock.orgswalker@winrock.org
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