February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy Nuclear Power – fact and fiction

February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie

Nuclear Power – fact and fiction

Many genuine concerns

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/waste/doc/2005_06_nuclear_waste_en.pdf

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_297_en.pdf

Objections in Ireland

It’s not safe No solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too bigThey’re too expensiveUse renewables instead

Fact or Fiction?

“We are not going nuclear because we are going down the renewables route.“

Minister for Energy (Eamon Ryan), Late Debate, RTE radio

Joint Committee on Climate Change and Energy Security

CER submission

“… gas and wind generation must be supplemented by other sources, whether coal with carbon capture and storage, nuclear or non-intermittent renewables.”

EirGrid

“concerns that the portfolio … dominated by wind … supported by gas ... exposes Ireland to risks both in terms of supply and price volatility.”

Airtricity

“a sustainable electricity system is the sum of a portfolio of interdependent technological solutions including renewables”

“Should competitive, flexible, smaller scale reactors be proven, then this is an option that Ireland should consider in the longer term.”

Wind output at system peaks

Capacity Credit of Wind

http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Generation%20Adequacy%20Report%202010-2016.pdf

Realistic contribution of some renewables - global

Maximum additional (thermal equivalent) amounts:

Wind x 50Hydro x 2Biomass x 3Geothermal x 70Marine x 500

Realistic contribution of some renewables - global

Maximum additional (thermal equivalent) amounts:

Wind x 50 (~ 3 TW)Hydro x 2 (~ 1 TW)Biomass x 3 (~ 1 TW) total < 6 TWGeothermal x 70 (~ 100 GW) (need 15 TW)Marine x 500 (~ 100 GW)

Remainder from solar, fission, fusion and new technology

It’s not safe No solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too bigThey’re too expensiveUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Fact or Fiction?

“Any reasonable cost-benefit analysis concludes that nuclear energy has no future“

Oisin Coghlan, Friends of the Earth

OR“..our electricity is more expensive … because they have nuclear energy, which is cheaper.”

Mary Coughlan, Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment

SEI shows nuclear cheaper than wind

http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Low_Carbon_Opportunity_Study/Technical_Appendix.pdf

DIT/BERR: nuclear cheapest new option

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/tna/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file31938.pdf

It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too bigThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Fact or Fiction?

“Too big for the Irish Grid”

“Plant size is 1600 MW”

New nuclear plants by 2015-20• Toshiba 4S 10 MW• Hyperion 25 MW• PBMR 165 MW• Babcock & Wilcox SMR 185 MW• Westinghouse SMR 225 MW

10 new plants <= 700 MW will begin operation by 2012

Opportunity, not a threat!

It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Not enough fuel?

> 70 years at 70,000 tU p.a.

@ US$130 /kgU

Known Recoverable Resources of Uranium 2009

It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Segregated + protected + shielded

Jet crash test

Small target

Underground

Auto SCRAM

Easier targets (chemical, biological)

No history

Target for terrorists?

https://share.sandia.gov/news/resources/video-gallery/index.html#rocketsled

It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Use in weapon?

• Fuel: Low Enriched Uranium (< 5%)• Weapon: Highly Enriched Uranium (>20%)• State-run enrichment facilities• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty• IFNEC (GNEP)?• Cannot operate as a nuclear weapon

It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Fact or fiction?

“nuclear energy is just as polluting in terms of carbon emissions as gas-fired power.”

Oisin Coghlan, Friends of the Earth

IPCC are unequivocal…

Figure 4.19 in Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

Future Irish emissions

http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Low%20Carbon%20Generation%20Options%20for%20the%20All%20Island%20Market%20%282%29.pdf (POYRY)

It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissions …………. FictionUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

“Waste remains dangerous for hundreds of thousands of years” – fact or fiction?

"What is remarkable about nuclear waste is that it fades away. In 600 years the high-level waste from a nuclear power station is no more radioactive or dangerous than the uranium ore from which it originated.” James Lovelock

Waste issues

Small quantities (500 m3 HLW vs 1 bn m3 ind pa)Retained50-year waiting periodLong life = low radioactivityGeological storage (Finland, Sweden, UK, Switzerland)Natural reactors (Oklo, 3 billion years ago)Valuable resource - use as fuel?

It’s not safeNo solution for waste ………….... FictionDoesn’t help emissions …………. FictionUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

U.S. Industrial Safety Accident Rate2007

Nuclear Power Plants Utilities ManufacturingISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours. Electric utilities and manufacturing do not include fatality data.Sources: Nuclear (World Association of Nuclear Operators), 2006 Data for Electric Utilities and Manufacturing (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Updated: 4/08

ISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours.Note: Starting in 2008, data includes supplemental personnel.Source: World Association of Nuclear Operators Updated: 4/11

U.S. Nuclear Industrial Safety Accident Rate

One-Year Industry Values

It’s not safe ………….................... FictionNo solution for waste ………….... FictionDoesn’t help emissions …………. FictionUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction

Summary

• Whirlwind guide

• Many fallacies circulating

• Efficiency paramount

• Serious topic, serious consideration

• Going gets tough….facts, not fiction!

Radiation and Protection

February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy Nuclear Power – fact and fiction

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