FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm & Framework for Progress

FACETs: A New Warning Paradigm &

Framework for Progress

Seeking Clarity & Coalescencein the Primordial Soup

Lans P. RothfuszDeputy Chief

Warning R & D DivisionNational Severe Storms Laboratory

Informing a Paradigm Shift

Future Warning

Paradigm

Good things we do now.

Challenges we have

now.Trajectories of science, tools and society.

First, do no harm!

Refine, revise and/or reinvent.

Where we’re headed.

A SAMPLING OF CURRENT CHALLENGES

The State of Warnings and Warning R&D

Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning?

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2012

*TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 1 PM CST

* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

Answer: The Year!

Courtesy: Alan Gerard

Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning?

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 1971

*TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 1 PM CST

* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

40+ years ago!!

Courtesy: Alan Gerard

Current Warning System “Challenges”

• Warning methodologies have changed little in over 40 years.– Except for “bullet format” and “storm-based”

issuance.• Society has changed….

– Technology– Science– Social diversity– Lifestyles– Vulnerability

Current Warning System “Challenges”

• Polygons (in their current formulation) are blunt instruments for communicating a dynamic, small-scale threat.

Courtesy Greg Carbin, NWS SPC

Time Days

Outlooks

Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM)

Current Warning System “Challenges”

Space Regional State Local

Watches Warnings

Event

Hours Minutes

Information Void(s)

• Product-centric and binary.• More information needed.• More information available.

Information Continuum

EVOLUTIONAL TRAJECTORIES

Where We’re Headed…

Evolutional Trajectory #1

• Evolving Methods…– Some under

development (e.g., WoF)

– Most unsupported and/or untested.

– None are coordinated with the others.

PHI

WoF

Threat PetalsTIM

FDP

THESPA

Evolutional Trajectory #2

• Evolving Domain…– All developmental

trajectories point toward The Grid!

– Severe ops, however, are not on it.• A key issue for the

future of warnings!!

MRMS

Evolutional Trajectory #3

• Evolving Output…– Disparate projects

intended to make warnings more effective in influencing human behavior.

Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

Threats-In-Motion

Collaborative Study

Evolutional Trajectory #4

• A Nurturing Environment…– Testbeds & Proving

Grounds.– NWS Roadmap.

• Decision Support Services (DSS) through Pilot Projects.

– Weather Ready Nation.

• Emphasis on social science.

The Primordial Soup

Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

The Primordial Soup

Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

• “Ingredients” of the primordial soup are advancing, but each on their own trajectory.

• Poorly-coordinated = No assurance each will “arrive” in the same place as the others.– Impractical in today’s fiscal climate.– Problematic for those managing “warning R&D.”

• All connected by a common desire to improve public safety!

The Opportunity

• There is a need (and opportunity) to coalesce the disparate activities into a single vision for a threat forecasting* paradigm that is…– Modern– Effective– Scientifically robust– Holistic– Unifying– Responsive to WRN-identified issues

*beyond watches & warnings

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats

FACETs Paradigm

• Seven Facets of the Paradigm1. Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats2. Storm-Scale Obs & Guidance3. The Forecaster4. Threat Grid Tools5. Useful Output 6. Effective Response7. Verification

Temporal Continuum

of theThreat

ForecastingProcess

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats

ACK!!! Probabilities for the public?!

Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats

• Grid-Based, Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI)– Forecasters convey

threat probability on grids.

– NOT (explicitly) watches or warnings, but…

Tornado threat indexValid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm

CDTLast updated: 6 minutes ago

Courtesy G. Stumpf

Facet #1: Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats

“Byproduct” Tornado Warning

• Legacy products (warnings/watches) result from pre-determined thresholds.

• De-emphasizes the binary “warn/don’t warn” decision of forecasters.

• Enables new products! Tornado threat indexValid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm

CDTLast updated: 6 minutes ago

Courtesy G. Stumpf

Sub-WarningAlert for High Wind

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance

Observations & Guidance

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance

• Warn on Forecast– NWP for storm-scale processes.– Probabilistic output that will enable FACETs.

Synoptic Scale Storm ScaleGFS, NAM, RAP, etc. Warn on Forecast

MOS Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms

(MYRORSS)

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance

• Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS).– 15-year radar data reanalysis.– Statistical (probabilistic) output of

climatological storm-scale “behavior” (phenomena, longevity, severity, etc.)

– Paves way for WoF probabilistic output.

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #3: The Forecaster

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Facet #3: The Forecaster

• Forecasters over (and in) the grids!!– As essential as ever to the warning process.

• New paradigm = new training!– Probabilistic threat information.– Uncertainty conveyance.– Use of guidance.– Best practices.– Tool use, etc.

• For maximum effectiveness of FACETs, NWS must have renewed training efforts.

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Threat Grid Tools

Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools

• WarnGen for threat grids.• GSD’s “Hazard Services”

AWIPS-II app is headed in this direction.– Specific tools needed for

storm-scale threats.• For example, a supercell widget

to quickly “draw” hail, wind and tornado threat swaths all at once.

• Need to strengthen connections to warning R&D.

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #5: Useful Output

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Threat Grid Tools

Useful Output

Facet #5: Useful Output

• Watches & warnings, yes.– User-specifiable thresholds!

• Impact-focused, with new information – Urgency, confidence, range

of possibilities, etc.• Enables copious

opportunities for private sector partners.

“Byproduct” Tornado Warning

Courtesy G. Stumpf

Sub-WarningAlert for High Wind

Facet #5: Useful Output

Hail DamageTrees Down>EF3 TornadoLightning

Tornado Grid

Hail Grid

Wind Grid

Impact Grid

GIS layers

Hail Wind Flood Tornado

10

35

2 1

Weather Threats4701 N Porter Ave

Hail Wind Flood Tornado

35

90

5

80

Weather Threats4701 N Porter Ave

Facet #5: Useful Output

Until5:30 p.m.

Act Now!Act Now!

Low

Med

High

Until6:45 p.m.

Phone App Example

Last Update6:15 p.m.

Last Update5:00 p.m.

Facet #5: Useful Output

• Better DSS through better (and easier) impact communication.– Based on weather threat forecast, a GIS-based,

“impact translator tool” could communicate the site-specific impact.• Forecast: “Wind gusts to 60 mph” • Impact: “Numerous trees and branches will fall.

Roofing material will be peeled back. Mobile homes will be rolled.”

– Gives more useful, actionable, recipient-specific information.

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #6: Effective Response

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Threat Grid Tools

Useful Output

Effective Response

Facet #6: Effective Response

• Start at the end…– “Look at the desired response and work our way

backwards from there.” - Dr. Russ Schneider

Publ

ic

The Impact ResponseEducation Preparation Awareness

Fore

cast

er Method Guidance Decision

Publ

ic

Fore

cast

er

The Impact

SocSci Integration PointsResponseEducation Preparation Awareness

Method Guidance Decision

HumanFactors

Economics

Anthropology

Sociology

Psychology

PublicPolicy

Communication

HumanGeography

PoliticalScience

Linguistics

CulturalStudies

PoliticalScience

Economics

Communication

HumanFactorsHuman

Factors

LawPsychology

Sociology

Psychology

Economics

CulturalStudies

Linguistics

Psychology

Anthropology

HumanFactors

AnthropologyHumanFactors

Psychology

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Facet #7: Verification

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Threat Grid Tools

Useful Output

Effective Response

Verification Methods

Facet #7: Verification• Forecasts and observations on the same

coordinate system: A geospatial grid.

• Statistically-valid and scientifically-robust results suitable for system improvement & research. – Reliability– Resolution

• New metrics possible…– False alarm time & area.– Site-specific lead time, etc. Resolution: 1 km2 × 1 min

FALSE

HITMISS

CORRECTNULL

} Brier Score

From ECMWF and Allan Murphy

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

• PHI• TIM

FACETs

Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

Observations & Guidance

• WoF• MYRORSS

The Forecaster

• Training• Drills• Best

Practices• DSS

Threat Grid Tools

• Hazard Services

• NWSWarn• Threat Petals

Useful Output

• HazSimp• Impact-

based warnings

• Mid-South Warning Improvement Project

• DSS

Effective Response

• Education• Preparedness• Awareness• Threat &

Vulnerability Matching

Verification Methods

• Grid-based, improved metrics.

Integrated Social Science

HWT, OPG & Pilot Project “Development & Polishing”

In Conclusion…

• FACETs is……A new warning paradigm (grid-based threats); …A framework intended to organize and guide

reinvention efforts.

• FACETs designed to……Continue “the good” of the present system.…Accommodate trajectories of science,

technology and society;…Focus and guide warning R&D work;…Provide clarity in “The Primordial Soup!”

Comments, Questions and/or

Suggestions?Lans P. Rothfusz

lans.rothfusz@noaa.gov678-665-7049