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European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Recent WGSR discussions concerning baseline scenarios for the Gothenburg protocol
revision
Martin Adams
Air and Climate Change ProgrammeEuropean Environment Agency
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Planned time schedule - TFIAMPlanned time schedule - TFIAM
TFIAM2010Feb: Baseline proposalMay: Analyses of targets optionsOct: Sensitivity analysis
incl. climate forcing
2011Jan/Feb: Scenario runsMay: Final runsOct: Report
WGSR2010Apr: Baseline
acceptedSept: Guidance on targets
Dec(EB): Guidance on targets
2011 April: Draft ProtocolSept: Final ProtocolDec(EB): Protocol adopted
R. Maas. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Open questions and uncertainties
• The future climate policy? – eg EU: the current 20% or a 30% reduction target? (late May/early June, European Commission communication on the 30% option)
• What will be the effect of the economic crisis?
1. PRIMES 2009 includes the economic crisis, current climate/energy measures legislation 2009. But double-sip recession?
2. 12 national baseline projections have been submitted
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Data sources of national projections: energy
National scenarios IEA WEO 2009 PRIMES 2008 C&E (NEC report #6)
Austria (transport only)
Albania Belgium Latvia
Croatia Belarus Bulgaria Lithuania
Czech Republic Bosnia-H. Cyprus Luxembourg
Denmark Moldova Estonia Malta
Finland Russia France Poland
Greece Serbia Germany Romania
Ireland Ukraine Hungary Slovakia
Italy Turkey Slovenia
Netherlands FYROM (PRIMES2009)
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Data sources national projections: Agriculture
National scenarios
FAO outlook 2003
CAPRI 2009 projections
Austria Belarus Belgium Latvia
Croatia Moldova Bulgaria Lithuania
Finland Russia Cyprus Luxembourg
Ireland Turkey Czech Republic Malta
Italy Ukraine Denmark Norway
Netherlands Estonia Poland
Romania France Slovenia
Slovakia Germany Portugal
Spain Hungary
Sweden Greece
Switzerland
UKAmann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
TFIAM’s Baseline considerations
• Baseline assumptions will first of all affect the costs of an abatement strategy, but can also affect the distribution of efforts.
• National baselines show a large variety in assumptions on economic growth, oil- and carbon prices and domestic climate policy.
• Further efforts to improve the available baselines would not reduce basic uncertainties in future economic developments and climate and energy policies, but only delay the revision of the Protocol.
• The PRIMES 2009 baseline provides a coherent perspective comprising current legislation etc, although some countries have different expectations on future national energy and climate policies.
• Still the PRIMES 2009 baseline would offer a more equal starting point for defining further measures than the national baselines.
R. Maas, 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Comparison of assumed GDP growthbetween 2005 and 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
CZ
RE
DEN
M
ES
TO
GR
EE
IRE
L
ITA
L
NETH
NO
RW
SPA
I
SW
ED
SW
IT
UN
KI
GD
P2
02
0 r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
5
C&E2008 National PRIMES2009
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Comparison of oil prices assumed in national scenarios for 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CZ DK FI GR IE IT NL NO PT ES SE CH UK
Oil p
rice a
ssu
med
for
20
20
(U
S-$
/b
arr
el)
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Comparison of 2020 carbon prices assumed National scenario vs. PRIMES C&E package
0
10
20
30
40
50
CZ DK FI GR IE IT NL NO PT ES SE CH UK
Carb
on
pri
ce (
€/t
CO
2)
National scenario PRIMES C&E package
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Baseline emissions projections for 2020PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM2.5
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
2020 National 2020 PRIMES
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Baseline emission projections for 2020SO2 PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BG BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Baseline emission projections for 2020NOx PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BG BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Baseline emission projections for 2020NH3 PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SL
ES
SE
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Baseline emission projections for 2020VOC PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SL
ES
SE
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Baseline emission projections for 2020PM2.5 PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
IMPACTS Loss in statistical life expectancyPROVISIONAL RESULTS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14A
TB
EB
G CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
NO
CH AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
UA
Loss in
sta
tisti
cal life
exp
ecta
ncy (
mon
ths)
2000 National PRIMES
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
IMPACTS Excess of CL for acidification in forest soils PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR M
MK
RS
RU
UA
Fore
st
are
a w
here
CL(a
cid
) are
exceed
ed
2000 National PRIMES
Amann et al. 2010.
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
WGSR recommendations
• For the baseline Parties agreed to use Primes2009 for all countries (if available) & Capri agriculture for the baseline. • IEA/FAO data would be used for others eg EECCA countries. (NO, CH – national projections) • National projections supplemented with PRIMES2008 will be used to provide a higher-growth scenario/sensitivity run.• Additional Primes policy scenarios (eg 30% GHG, 20%
renewables etc) will inform the later scenario work.
Meeting report www.unece.org/env/lrtap/WorkingGroups/wgs/docs46th%20session.htm
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
Other issues
TFIAM’s 2010-2011 workplan also includes:• Analyse further how uncertainties could be reflected in policy through flexibility mechanisms• Target setting options • Not only focus on 2020, but to make full use of the 2030 data provided by PRIMES 2009 and the World Energy Outlook
Next meeting 17-19 May, Dublin
European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca
References
M. Amann, J. Borken, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont. Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios.Working Group on Strategies, Geneva, April 12-15, 2010
R. Maas. Report to WGSR from Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 37th meeting (Geneva, 22−24 February 2010)
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/tfiam
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