European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013

Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know

Sir Gordon Conway,Professor of International

DevelopmentAgriculture for Impact,

Imperial College, London

European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels,

March 4, 2013

Resilience –stresses and shocks

Africa’s Climate – Key Factors

Rising sea and land temperatures

Three Drivers:

Tropical convection The Monsoons El Niño – La Niña Oscillation

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

El Niño – La Niño Oscillation

El Niño

La Niña

Stresses

Gradual build-up of adverse events

• Pest and disease attack• Land degradation• Growing pollution• Increasing temperatures• Rising sea levels• Greater or lesser rainfall• Growing indebtedness

UNDP Human Development Report, 2006

Climate change in Africa

More than 5% reduction in

length of growing period

Average Annual Max Temp > 300C

By 2050

Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

ShocksUsually dramatic, largely

unexpected events• Locust outbreaks• Disease outbreaks• Sudden floods• Major drought• Cyclones• Earthquakes• Tsunamis

• Financial collapse

Extreme Events

Hansen et al, 2012, NASA

Extreme Events

Russia Severe heatwave in 2010 Doubled Moscow’s death

rate 30% of grain crops lost to burning

Pakistan Worst floods in 80 years Killed over 1600 people Submerged 1/5th of the country, including

14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land

We have to be Innovative

Sustainable Intensification Increased yields or production

On the same amount of land With less water Less fertilisers Less pesticides Lower emissions of Greenhouse Gases

Increased natural capitaland environmental services

Greater resilience

Precision FarmingMicrodosing in Niger

Ecological Resilience

Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices

e.g. Agroforestry Integrated Pest Management Organic farming

Conservation Farming in Zambia

Genetic ResilienceModern Plant Breeding

Plants more nutritious carbohydrate and protein micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)

Plants more resilient to pests and diseases climate change

Plants more efficient at converting sunlight to food taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere using water

Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes

Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda

$500 million losses a year in Uganda

Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene

Successfully transferred to bananas

In Ugandan field trials

Entirely government funded

Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance

Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress

Plants rapidly recover

No yield penalty when stress free

In African field trials

Socio-Economic Resilience -

Markets

An Enabling Environment

Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)

Rural Economy

Farm Household in the local community

Seed Co

Agrodealer

Fertiliser Co

Banks formicrocredit

Local trader

Connectivity

Regional trade

National trade

Resilient People

Nwadjahane, Southern Mozambique

Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms

Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwise

http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv... Eduardo Mondlane

How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?

Conway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feedthe world?’

www.canwefeedtheworld.org

Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry

For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: www.ag4impact.org

Contact:g.conway@imperial.ac.uk

Thank You