Europe from the Atlantic to the Black Sea: where and how does Iceland fit in? William Wallace...

Europe from the Atlantic to the Black Sea: where and how does

Iceland fit in?

William WallaceHaskoli Islands 12 June 2009

What is Europe, where is Europe?

EU and NATO as increasingly defining ‘Europe’: pressures from weaker states on eastern and southern borders for inclusion

A continent without clear borders: eastern and southern borderlands

Europe in a globalised world: 12% of world population, 25% of world production, 40 states out of 192 UN members

Europe as a ‘declining’ region or as a satisfied and secure region? The ‘rise’, or recovery, of Asia

Transformation of ‘Europe’ since 1989

(re-)emergence of states from former Soviet bloc: 7 Warsaw Pact states plus Yugoslavia & Albania have become 22-23

Shift eastwards, still under way Expansion of NATO and EU – where should

these stop? EU from 12 to 27; and on to 35 and more? Gas and oil dependence, on east and south Migration pressures, from east and south

Europe as a dynamic region: illusions of stability, the pace of

change The Europe of our grandparents: half-buried memories

and conflicts How stable are current borders? How permanent are

some of Europe’s weaker states? Moldova, Bosnia, Macedonia – Belarus, Ukraine?

Transformation of Europe’s economy: industry moving east, technology and services in the West

Popular resistance to immigration; reality of urban change over last century

Transformation of European society over past generation

What sort of Europe will Iceland prefer?

Inputs and outputs: what you get out of the EU, but also what you put in

Economic autonomy or integration: the shifting balance Dilemmas for small states: how to play the game, and on

how many tables at once Do small states benefit from stronger multilateral

institutions? Fault lines and potential coalitions: large state and small,

north and south, west and east North sea interests, Mediterranean and Black Sea

interests: how far east will Icelandic interests stretch?

The enlargement agenda

The Western Balkans: weak states, needing external anchors

Turkey: NATO member, EU aspiration as the external anchor for domestic reform

The new Zwischenlände: Ukraine, Moldova, (Belarus), Georgia, Armenia (Azerbaijan). The ‘Eastern Partnership’: empty gesture or strategic move?

The EEA Associates? Norway, Iceland, Switzerland The Mediterranean Union. Morocco as a Muslim

partner? Israel as a Western state? Is there an ‘end point’ to enlargement? Council of

Europe, OSCE…

What is NATO now for?

Defence of the ‘North Atlantic area’? European region as largely secure and peaceful: NATO, EU and Western Balkans. But Russia: partner or threat?

Security around the frontiers of Europe? Eastern enlargement and Russia; Mediterranean partnership & the Muslim world

To maintain US leadership in Western security To provide a ‘toolbox’ in support of US/Western strategy

outside the European region To form the core of a wider ‘alliance of democracies’? Underlying tension between US-led ‘West’ and Europe

as a part of ‘the Western alliance’: is this sustainable?

The EU at 50: mid-life crisis, or healthy middle age?

The shadow of the past: ‘Old Believers’ and new ‘Pragmatists’. The Monnet model of functional integration, as an elite project

EC-6 and EU-27: nostalgia for ‘core Europe’, reluctant adjustment to enlargement

Economic and security success, popular disillusionment – taking it all for granted

Is European society in crisis? US neo-conservatives image of secular decline into ‘Eurabia’

The EU as a ‘mature’ community? Unloved, but necessary to manage globalization

The EU agenda

Institutional dilemmas: after the Lisbon Treaty? European economic governance: how much further

integration is needed? Single currency, financial regulation, fiscal coordination

Coping with recession: can national preferences be resisted?

Political leadership and strategic direction: who sets the agenda? France, Germany, UK

Can European publics be led? Populism and consumerism, identity politics and migration, the end of deference and mistrust of elites

Internal Security, external borders

Open borders, cross-national crime and terror Order and justice as the core of sovereignty: obstacles to

cooperation The development of European bodies: Europol, Eurojust,

Frontex Mass travel, mass migration: external border control.

Whose responsibilities, whose costs? Is a common immigration policy manageable? External

pressures, internal resistance

A common foreign policy?

Do European states share a common view of world order? Or a strategic culture? Can European states avoid developing global policies?

Washington’s agenda, Europe’s response: is CFSP compatible with NATO?

3 states, 6, or 27? Imbalance of resources and capabilities

Strategic relationships: USA, Russia, the Arab/Muslim world (but China and India?)

Is Africa Europe’s problem? Sovereignty and status, intelligence and budgets

What kind of Iceland in what sort of world?

Global recession, global warming, global epidemics: the new insecurity agenda for a less benign world

Choices for small states: marginalization, specialization (offshore ‘niches’), or participation

US leadership vs European partnership Identity politics or integration? Nostalgia or

globalization? North Korea as the model sovereign state International (and domestic) politics as a continuous

negotiation among unsatisfactory choices The Nordic model: small states, moderate autonomy and

international responsibility