ESTIMATING DEMAND Concept Test Focus Group Creative Workshop (questionnaires AT&T Data Terminal...

ESTIMATING DEMAND

Concept Test

Focus Group

Creative Workshop (questionnaires

AT&T Data Terminal Market

Prototype Test

Group Test

Xerox Docutech System Program, 25

Boeing with United Airlines Jet 777)

Microsoft Windows 95-25000 tests

Opinions of Experts

Discussion Group – Synthesis of opinions - Delphi Method

TECHNOLOGY VERSUS MARKET NEED APPROACH

• WHY TECHNOLOGY? To Solve a Problem To fulfill an Existing Need To Fulfill a Future Need To Propose a Better Solution

• WAY OF THINKING & SOCIAL LIMITS Marconi Radio: From Steamship to Newspapers Thomas Watson: Compute to Computer Transistors: From Deaf to Computer

TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE (Trajectory of Technological Improvement)

T

Application’s

Efficiency

Man hours invested

Emergence Growth Maturity Decline

Sustained Technology

TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE & TECHNOLOGY CHANGE

(Disruptive Technology)

t0 t1 T

Application’s

Efficiency

e1

e0

T1

T2

Man hours invested/Years

READ-WRITE HEAD TECHNOLOGY(Component –Architecture Disc Drive)

t0 t1 T

Recording Density

e1

e0

T1: Ferrite head technology

Man hours invested/Years

T3: Magneto resistive head

Smaller, more precise dimensions

T2: Thin film head

S CURVES FOR FERRITE/OXYDE TECHNOLOGIES FUJITSU-CDC

t0 t1 T

Area Density (millions of bits/square inch)

10

CDC

Fujitsu

Years

30

2

81: 60%

89: 37%

81:10%

89: 33%

TECHNOLOGY CLASSIFICATION

Basic TechnologyCurrent in the field

CAD/CAM Aeronautics

Titanium “

Key TechnologySpecific to the firm, patent

CAD/CAM Automobile

Titanium Submarines

Emerging TechnologyBeginning implementation

stage

CAD/CAM Textiles(Benetton)

Titanium Watches,Prosthesis

TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO

Degree of Control

Competitive ImpactDeveloped

High

Adapted

Medium

Borrowed

High

High

Medium

Low

SUPPLIER OF COMMUNICATIONS NETWORKING

FROM MAINSTREAM MARKET TO MARKET/TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION

AND BACK

• Requested speed and total capacity to 8-12 disc drive : Control Data

• 3.5 inch Disc Drive: Conner and Quantum

• 5.25 inch : Seagate, Tandon, Miniscribe

• 8-12 inch using 5.25 and 3.5 inch architecture

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

• Utility Patent Processes Machine: combination of

elements Article: tangible item Composition of matter

• Design Patent New, original, ornamental

design

• Plant Patent Business processes: Dell’s

build to order

•Copyright

Protect the particular way in which a work is expressed

France life + 50 years

Russia: life + 20 years

Germany : perpetual

UK: 28+14 years

Bern Convention US Europe : life + 70-95-120 from creation

•Trade Marks Digital Millennium Copyright Act(98); Digital Right Management (HW+SW)

Easy of use benefit

Social-personal benefit

PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE (PLC)

Introduction Growth Mature Decline

Sales

Time

INPUT & INDUSTRY-DEMAND STRUCTURE BEHIND PLC

Introduction Growth Mature 1 Mature 2

TechnologyFrequent Changes

Additional Changes in Production

Few Changes

Periodic Changes

Capital Intensity

LowHigh, Obsolescence

High High

Critical

Manpower

InventorManagementFinance

Industry Structure

Techn. Barrier

MergersCompetition

Demand Structure

Specialized

Innovators

Early Majority

Late Majority

Sales

TimeSubstitution

Sales

TimeExtension

Sales

TimeTechnology Change

Sales

TimeMature Extension

VENTURE CAPITAL

Objectives Strategic Financial

tight

loose

Link to operation Capability

Driving advances strategy of current business

Microsoft-Internet new architecture

Enabling Complement strategy

Intel: video, audio…

Emergent

Potential new businesses Intel-Berkeley Networks lower cost switches and routers for communication

Passive Financial return only

Source: Chesbrowgh H.W. “Making Sense of Corporate Venture Capital” Harvar Busienss School piblishing 2002

MARKET & FIRM LIFE CYCLE

Market Phase

Targeted Value

Start up International Global

Functionality

Reliability

Convenience

Price

FIRM-MARKET LIFE CYCLE & INNOVATION STRATEGY

Market Phase

Firm Stage

Emerging Growing Mature

Start up Discontinuous Market & Technology

Discontinuous Product

Discontinuous Product

InternationalDiscontinuous Product & Technology

Current Improvement

Discontinuous Market and Product

GlobalCurrent Improvement

Current Improvement

Discontinuous Manufacturing Product & Technology

FIRM-MARKET LIFE CYCLE & INNOVATION STRATEGY

Market Phase

Firm Stage

Emerging Growing Mature

Start up FunctionalityFunctionalityFunctionality

InternationalReliabilityConvenienceFunctionality

GlobalReliabilityReliabilityConvenience Functionality

ORGANIZATIONAL ARCHITECTURE

Old Organization

• Lack of Integration between Knowledge in each Dpt.

• Difficulty of Involving many people in Discussion

• Middle Managers: Filters & Diffusers of Commands

New Organization

• Employee Competence

• Internal Structure-Company Flow

• External Structure-Customer Interaction

• Middle Managers: Creating new Knowledge

THE OLD ORGANIZATION

C O OC h ie f O p era tion s

O ffice r

C FOC h ie f F in an c ia l

O ffice r

C T OC h ie f Tech n o log y

O ffice r

C IOC h ie f In fo rm ation

O ffice r

R & D Ma rketingMa nufa cturing

H um a n R esourcesSa les

C EOC h ie f E xecu tive O ffice r

RESTRUCTURING ACTIVITIES

Innovation

Knowledge

Operations

Information Flow

Short Run Long Run

THE NEW ORGANIZATION

CEOChef Executive

Officer CKOChief Knowledge

Officer

CINOChief Innovation

Officer

COOChief Operations

Officer

OPERATING,INNOVATION & KNOWLEDGE POWER

Chief Operating Officer - COO

External Structure

Continuous Innovation:

Product Dvt, Manufacturing, Sales, Short term

Chief Innovation Officer -CINO

Internal Structure

Discontinuous Innovation:

Technology, Marketing, Long term

Chief Knowledge Officer-CKO

Employee Competence

Assets Management:

Finance, Knowledge, Human resource