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ESN Analyser
Investment Research
Page 1 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
ESN Analyser
Investment Research
ESN Top Picks
Tactical Sector Views
NEWS BY SECTOR
AUTOMOBILES & PARTS
Piaggio (Accumulate) New credit lines for EUR 45m
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles SA (Neutral) December 2016 trading volume -27.5% (estimated)
FOOD & BEVERAGE
Raisio (Neutral) Raisio’s Benemilk feeds granted patents in Finland and New Zealand
FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS
Sonae (Buy) Sale and leaseback operation – neutral for the stock
GENERAL RETAILERS
Stockmann (Accumulate) The divestment of Hobby Hall completed as planned
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE
Atlantia (Accumulate) Toll increases for Italian network
SIAS (Buy) 2017 toll increases
SRV (Buy) SRV redeems its first hybrid bond
MEDIA
Atresmedia (Buy) The Spanish series “Velvet” a case study
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Euskaltel (Buy) Bestinver exceeds 3%
TRAVEL & LEISURE
SPAIN: November incoming tourist data
Finnair (Reduce) Finnair forced to cancel flights
ESN Top Picks
Page 2 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Blue Chips Top Picks
Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of
0 1/ 0 1/ 2 0 17
Ta r ge t
P r i c e
Upsi de /
Downsi deEnt r y da t e
Ent r y
pr i c e
Ent r y
pr i c e
( D i v .
Adj )
Tot a l
Re t ur n
Ent r y To
Da t e
Re l . Cml . d
pe r f . v s Eur o
S t ox x
ALLI ANZ Germany Insurance Long Buy 157.00 175.00 11% 13/ 12/ 2016 155.00 155.00 1. 3 % -1.2%
AM ADEUS Spain Support Services Long Buy 43.17 50.70 17% 18/ 08/ 2016 41.96 41.96 2 . 9 % -5.8%
CI E FI N . R I CHEM ONT Swit zerland Personal Goods Long Buy 67.45 76.00 13% 17/ 10/ 2016 66.30 66.30 1. 7 % -5.7%
EDP RENOVÁVEI S Port ugal Ut ilit ies Long Buy 6.04 7.70 28% 14/ 11/ 2016 5.82 5.82 3 . 7 % -4.3%
ENAGAS Spain Ut ilit ies Long Buy 24.13 32.00 33% 22/ 11/ 2016 23.24 23.24 3 . 8 % -4.0%
I NDI TEX Spain General Ret ailers Long Accumulat e 32.43 36.10 11% 18/ 08/ 2016 30.93 30.33 6 . 9 % -1.8%
KP N TELECOM Net herlands Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 2.81 3.55 26% 20/ 09/ 2016 2.82 2.82 - 0 . 2 % -9.1%
P OS TE I TALI ANE It aly Banks Long Accumulat e 6.31 7.90 25% 03/ 11/ 2016 5.96 5.96 5 . 8 % -3.3%
RELX Net herlands Media Long Accumulat e 15.99 16.75 5% 27/ 10/ 2016 15.14 15.14 5 . 6 % -0.2%
TECHNI P France Oil Services Long Buy 67.81 67.00 -1% 18/ 10/ 2016 58.60 58.60 15 . 7 % 7.8% source: ESN Members’ estimates
M/S Caps Top Picks
Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of
0 1/ 0 1/ 2 0 17
Ta r ge t
P r i c e
Upsi de /
Downsi deEnt r y da t e
Ent r y
pr i c e
Ent r y pr i c e
( D i v . Adj )
Tot a l
Re t ur n
Ent r y To
Da t e
Re l . Cml . d
pe r f . v s
Eur o
S t ox x
ACERI NOX Spain Basic Resources Long Buy 12.61 14.00 11% 18/ 08/ 2016 11.71 11.71 7 . 6 % -1.1%
CAF Spain Indust r ial Transport at ion Long Accumulat e 38.30 43.00 12% 18/ 08/ 2016 34.28 34.28 11. 7 % 3.0%
CELLNEX TELECOM Spain Support Services Long Buy 13.67 19.60 43% 11/ 11/ 2016 13.03 13.03 4 . 9 % -2.7%
DEUTS CHE P FANDBRI EFBANK Germany Banks Long Accumulat e 9.12 11.30 24% 22/ 08/ 2016 8.10 8.10 12 . 6 % 3.7%
EUS KALTEL Spain Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 8.42 12.00 43% 11/ 11/ 2016 8.62 8.62 - 2 . 3 % -9.9%
FOLLI FOLLI E GROUP Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 19.23 26.00 35% 06/ 12/ 2016 18.10 18.10 6 . 2 % -0.9%
FORFARM ERS Net herlands Food & Beverage Long Buy 6.65 8.30 25% 28/ 09/ 2016 6.48 6.48 2 . 6 % -6.2%
FUGRO Net herlands Oil Services Long Buy 14.55 19.00 31% 20/ 10/ 2016 15.56 15.56 - 6 . 5 % -12.7%
GRENKE Germany Financial Services Long Buy 149.00 200.00 34% 06/ 12/ 2016 138.00 138.00 8 . 0 % 0.8%
HUHTAM ÄKI Finland General Indust r ials Long Buy 35.28 41.00 16% 17/ 11/ 2016 33.86 33.86 4 . 2 % -3.9%
I NDRA S I S TEM AS Spain Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Accumulat e 10.41 12.55 21% 09/ 12/ 20016 10.05 10.05 3 . 6 % -0.6%
KWS S AAT Germany Chemicals Long Buy 282.00 346.00 23% 06/ 12/ 2016 271.00 271.00 4 . 1% -3.1%
M OTOR OI L Greece Oil & Gas Producers Long Buy 13.10 15.00 15% 02/ 12/ 2016 12.14 12.14 7 . 9 % 0.2%
NATI ONAL BANK OF GREECE Greece Banks Long Buy 0.25 0.41 65% 21/ 11/ 2016 0.21 0.21 18 . 1% 10.0%
NH HOTEL GROUP Spain Travel & Leisure Long Buy 3.85 6.80 77% 18/ 08/ 2016 4.00 4.00 - 3 . 9 % -12.6%
NOS Port ugal Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 5.64 7.00 24% 05/ 12/ 2016 5.22 5.22 8 . 0 % 0.6%
OP AP Greece Travel & Leisure Long Buy 8.40 12.00 43% 21/ 11/ 2016 8.68 8.68 - 3 . 2 % -11.3%
YOOX NET- A- P ORTER It aly General Ret ailers Long Buy 26.94 31.30 16% 16/ 11/ 2016 24.55 24.55 9 . 7 % 2.2%
source: ESN Members’ estimates
This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with an absolute return target.
ESN Tactical Sector Views
Page 3 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Tactical Sector Allocation Matrix Dec 2016
SectorCurrent Tactical
ViewAction
Previous
Tactical View
Stoxx 600
Weighting
LATEST REVIEW
DATE
Automobiles & Parts = dow ngrade + 3% Nov-16
Banks + upgrade - 13% Nov-16
Basic Resources = = 3% Nov-16
Chemicals = = 5% Nov-16
Construction & Materials + + 3% Nov-16
Financial Services = upgrade - 2% Nov-16
Food & Beverage = dow ngrade + 6% Nov-16
Healthcare = dow ngrade + 13% Nov-16
Industrial Good & Services + + 12% Nov-16
Insurance + upgrade - 6% Nov-16
Media = upgrade - 3% Nov-16
Oil & Gas + upgrade = 5% Dec-16
Personal & Household Goods = dow ngrade + 9% Nov-16
Real Estate - dow ngrade + 2% Nov-16
Retail - - 3% Nov-16
Technology + + 4% Nov-16
Telecommunications - dow ngrade = 4% Nov-16
Travel & Leisure - dow ngrade + 2% Nov-16
Utilities - dow ngrade + 4% Nov-16
Legend: + (Overw eight); =/+ (Slightly Overw eight); = (Market Weight); =/- (Slightly Underw eight); - (Underw eight);
Note: The tactical sector view is the shorter term trading view of the ESN strategy team and it can vary from the longer term
fundamental view of the relevant ESN sector analyst team
Page 4 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Piaggio
Italy/Automobiles & Parts Analyser
AUTOMOBILES & PARTS
Piaggio (Accumulate) New credit lines for EUR 45m
New credit lines for EUR 45m
The facts: PIA obtained two mid-term unsecured loans for amounts totalling EUR
45m, with Banca Popolare di Milano and Banca del Mezzogiorno-Mediocredito
Centrale. The news was disseminated on Friday December 30th
during trading
hours.
Our analysis: BPM granted PIA EUR 25m, consisting of a 5.5 year EUR 12.5m
amortising loan, and a tranche for the same amount in the form of a 4-year
revolving credit facility. In addition, PIA arranged a 5.5 EUR 20m revolving credit
facility with Banca del Mezzogiorno-Mediocredito Centrale.
PIA claimed that the new lines of credit are part of the company's on-going
activities to optimise its debt structure in order to refinance the portion due in
2017, extend its average debt maturity and reduce its average borrowing cost.
We remind you that the only bond issued by PIA (an EUR 250m emission) will
mature only in 2021.
Conclusion & Action: the news – neutral – has been already discounted.
Analyst(s):
Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros
gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it
+39 02 43 444 289
Accumulate
1.59
closing price as of 30/12/2016
2.30
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg PIA.MI/PIA IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 573
Current N° of shares (m) 361
Free float 39%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 758
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 417
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 2.26
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.43
Abs. perf. 1 mth 4.62%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -4.69%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -31.81%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 1,295 1,333 1,434
EBITDA (m) 162 172 193
EBITDA margin 12.5% 12.9% 13.5%
EBIT (m) 57 64 87
EBIT margin 4.4% 4.8% 6.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 12 17 32
ROCE 4.0% 4.6% 6.3%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 498 471 450
Net Debt/Equity 1.2 1.2 1.1
Debt/EBITDA 3.1 2.7 2.3
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.4 4.8 5.7
EV/Sales 1.1 0.8 0.7
EV/EBITDA 8.5 6.3 5.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.5 6.3 5.5
EV/EBIT 24.1 16.7 12.2
P/E (adj.) nm 33.3 17.7
P/BV 2.1 1.4 1.4
OpFCF yield 3.7% 7.6% 6.2%
Dividend yield 3.2% 3.2% 3.8%
EPS (adj.) 0.03 0.05 0.09
BVPS 1.12 1.12 1.16
DPS 0.05 0.05 0.06
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
vvdsvdvsdy
PIAGGIO Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: IMMSI 51%; Della Valle Diego 5%;
Financière de l'Echiquier 5%;
Page 5 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Bolsas y Mercados Españoles SA
Spain/Financial Services Analyser
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles SA (Neutral) New credit lines for EUR 45m
December 2016 trading volume -27.5% (estimated)
The facts: Trading volume in December reached an estimated EUR49,039m,
5.5% above November 2016, but 27.5% below December 2015.
Our analysis: As we can observe in the following graphs, since October 2016,
the 3m accumulated volume began to recovery, but below levels a year ago. The
accumulated 12m volume (up to December) reached an estimated EUR650bn
and represents -32.5% Y/Y.
Conclusion: We reiterate our opinion that current trading volume levels seem to
have reached the bottom, thus should improve although the outlook indicates a
progressive recovery. At estimated 2016 results, BME presents an attractive
dividend yield of 6.4% (lacks debt). Against 2016 results, BME has distributed up
to EUR83.6m (gross) in dividends, that the Company can pay in light of its over
EUR200m net cash position at September 2016. Recommendation reiterated.
Analyst(s):
Javier Bernat, GVC Gaesco Beka
javier.bernat@gvcgaesco.es
+34 91 436 7816
Neutral
28.00
closing price as of 30/12/2016
30.00
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg BME.MC/BME SM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,341
Current N° of shares (m) 84
Free float 88%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 250
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 5,384
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 31.06
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 23.80
Abs. perf. 1 mth -2.49%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 5.86%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -10.84%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16 12/17
Sales (m) 348 322 348
EBITDA (m) 245 216 237
EBITDA margin 70.4% 67.2% 68.2%
EBIT (m) 239 212 231
EBIT margin 68.5% 65.9% 66.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 173 161 174
ROCE 147.5% 154.2% 194.1%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (231) (269) (307)
Net Debt/Equity -0.5 -0.6 -0.6
Debt/EBITDA -0.9 -1.2 -1.3
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (269.7) (154.4) (474.6)
EV/Sales 6.8 6.4 5.8
EV/EBITDA 9.7 9.6 8.6
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.6 9.6 8.5
EV/EBIT 9.9 9.8 8.8
P/E (adj.) 15.0 14.6 13.5
P/BV 5.5 4.9 4.8
OpFCF yield 7.1% 5.5% 6.5%
Dividend yield 6.2% 6.4% 6.9%
EPS (adj.) 2.08 1.92 2.08
BVPS 5.66 5.75 5.83
DPS 1.93 1.79 1.93
49474439
3150
6648
786361
746870
806362
9789
8489
8681
9481
949662
4490
7672
7965
5175
60
Dec
-16
Nov
-16
Oct
-16
Sep
-16
Aug
-16
Jul-1
6Ju
n-16
May
-16
Apr
-16
Mar
-16
Feb-
16Ja
n-16
Dec
-15
Nov
-15
Oct
-15
Sep
-15
Aug
-15
Jul-1
5Ju
n-15
May
-15
Apr
-15
Mar
-15
Feb-
15Ja
n-15
Dec
-14
Nov
-14
Oct
-14
Sep
-14
Aug
-14
Jul-1
4Ju
n-14
May
-14
Apr
-14
Mar
-14
Feb-
14Ja
n-14
Dec
-13
Source BME / Elaborated GVC Gaesco Beka
Monthly Cash Equity Trading (EUR Bn)
140
130
11412
0
147
165
193
18920
1
19820
321221
8
Dec
-16
Nov
-16
Oct
-16
Sep
-16
Aug
-16
Jul-1
6
Jun-
16
May
-16
Apr
-16
Mar
-16
Feb-
16
Jan-
16
Dec
-15
Source BME / Elaborated BEKA Finance
3M Cash Equity Trading (EUR Bn)
650
962
885
704
700
9271,
039
899
1,24
6
2016
E
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Source BME / Elaborated BEKA Finance
Cash Equity Trading 12M (EUR Bn)
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
vvdsvdvsdy
BOLSAS Y MERCADOS ESPANOLES SA IGBM (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: CF ALBA 12%;
Page 6 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Raisio
Finland/Food & Beverage Analyser
FOOD & BEVERAGE
Raisio (Neutral) December 2016 trading volume -27.5% (estimated)
Raisio’s Benemilk feeds granted patents in Finland and New Zealand
The facts: Raisio announced on Friday that it had received new patents for its
Benemilk feed innovation. In Finland, a patent was granted for the Benemilk
feeds and their manufacturing methods, and in New Zealand, patents were
granted for the feeds and their manufacturing method as well as for the milk
produced by Benemilk fed cows.
Our analysis: Patent-related news is categorically positive. First of all, patents
strengthen the basis for Benemilk’s market position in Finland as patents protect
the technical advantage of Benemilk feeds against competitors’ copying attempts
for the term of the patent (Benemilk feeds have an established market share in
Finland of about 7%). In general, positive patent decisions are also a strong
additional indication about the validity of an innovation and its suitability to be
patented. Previously, Benemilk had been granted patents in South Africa and
Australia.
In our opinion, the new patents are not significant for Raisio's investment story in
the short term as the commercial potential of the innovation is currently restricted
by the weak situation in the milk market, which reduces the producers’ incentives
to invest in the implementation of new technologies. However, in the long run, the
value of the innovations could be significant if conditions become more
favourable. So far, Raisio has minimised its investments in the international
commercialisation of the innovation and it focuses on proceeding with the
ongoing patent processes and defending the innovation’s intellectual property
rights against any violations.
Conclusion & Action: We have not assigned any value on Benemilk’s
international potential in our current target price (EUR 3.80) as there is no notable
profit potential in sight in this respect.
Analyst(s):
Niclas Catani, OP Corporate Bank
niclas.catani@op.fi
+358 10 252 8780
Neutral
3.57
closing price as of 30/12/2016
3.80
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg RAIVV.HE/RAIVV FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 562
Current N° of shares (m) 157
Free float 98%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 151
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,775
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 4.43
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.25
Abs. perf. 1 mth 4.69%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -8.93%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -15.80%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 494 521 438
EBITDA (m) 28 70 40
EBITDA margin 5.7% 13.4% 9.1%
EBIT (m) 7 42 28
EBIT margin 1.4% 8.1% 6.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1 33 16
ROCE 6.8% 10.2% 10.2%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 40 45 18
Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1
Debt/EBITDA 1.4 0.6 0.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) high high high
EV/Sales 1.4 1.1 1.3
EV/EBITDA 24.9 8.5 14.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.5 7.5 9.3
EV/EBIT nm 14.1 20.4
P/E (adj.) nm 17.2 34.9
P/BV 1.9 1.6 1.6
OpFCF yield 3.6% 8.0% 3.8%
Dividend yield 4.5% 5.0% 5.3%
EPS (adj.) 0.00 0.21 0.10
BVPS 2.23 2.18 2.23
DPS 0.16 0.18 0.19
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
vvdsvdvsdy
RAISIO Stoxx Food & Beverage (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Keskinäinen Eläkevakuutusyhtiö
Ilmarinen 4%; Maa- ja
metsätaloustuottajain Keskusliitto MTK
r.y. 2%; Central Union of Agricultural
Page 7 of 21
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Sonae
Portugal/Food & Drug Retailers Analyser
FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS
Sonae (Buy) Raisio’s Benemilk feeds granted patents in Finland and New Zealand
Sale and leaseback operation – neutral for the stock
The facts: In a statement sent to CMVM, Sonae informed the market on
December 30, that Sonae RP concluded the sale and leaseback transaction of the
property where Continente Albufeira operates.
Our analysis: According to the statement, this transaction will amount to EUR
21.4m and generate a capital gain of EUR 3.4m.
With the conclusion of this transaction, Sonae MC’s freehold should stand close to
50%.
Conclusion & Action: Even though this operation is not considered in our current
estimates, we do not see it as materially changing Sonae’s investment case.
Analyst(s):
José Mota Freitas, CFA, Caixa-Banco de Investimento
mota.freitas@caixabi.pt
+351 22 607 09 31
Buy
0.87
closing price as of 30/12/2016
1.45
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg YSO.LS/SON PL
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,748
Current N° of shares (m) 2,000
Free float 34%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 3,910
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,427
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 1.06
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 0.63
Abs. perf. 1 mth 9.94%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 28.53%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -17.23%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 5,014 5,422 5,754
EBITDA (m) 334 324 360
EBITDA margin 6.7% 6.0% 6.3%
EBIT (m) 148 156 123
EBIT margin 2.9% 2.9% 2.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 175 182 127
ROCE 6.0% 5.2% 4.2%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,304 1,234 1,133
Net Debt/Equity 0.7 0.6 0.5
Debt/EBITDA 3.9 3.8 3.2
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 10.0 15.0 13.4
EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITDA 6.2 5.9 5.1
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.2 5.9 5.1
EV/EBIT 14.1 12.3 14.8
P/E (adj.) 12.0 9.6 13.8
P/BV 1.3 0.9 0.9
OpFCF yield -0.2% 1.6% 10.8%
Dividend yield 8.6% 0.0% 4.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.09 0.09 0.06
BVPS 0.83 0.92 0.94
DPS 0.08 0.00 0.04
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
vvdsvdvsdy
SONAE Geral (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Efanor 52%; BPI 9%; Fund. Berardo 2%;
Invesco 1.97%; Treas. Shares -0.17%;
Page 8 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Stockmann
Finland/General Retailers Analyser
GENERAL RETAILERS
Stockmann (Accumulate) Sale and leaseback operation – neutral for the stock
The divestment of Hobby Hall completed as planned
The facts: Stockmann announced this morning that Hobby Hall’s business
operations have been transferred to the new owner, the Finnish SGN Group, on 1
January 2017. The transaction was completed according to a letter of intent
prepared in April.
Our analysis: The transaction price does not have a significant effect on
Stockmann’s earnings, but the divestment will improve Stockmann’s profitability.
Stockmann reports that Hobby Hall’s sales in 2016 were approximately EUR 72m,
which means a reduction of about 16% YoY while we had anticipated a reduction
of about 10%. According to the company, the operating result in 2016 will be
reported as a part of Stockmann’s Financial Statements Bulletin, which will be
published on 15 February 2017. As part of the transaction, approximately 150
Hobby Hall’s employees were transferred to SGN Group. Hobby Hall’s logistics
and warehouse functions were transferred to Posti on 1 May 2016.
Conclusion & Action: We retain our recommendation and target price for
Stockmann unchanged.
Analyst(s):
Niclas Catani, OP Corporate Bank
niclas.catani@op.fi
+358 10 252 8780
Accumulate
7.06
closing price as of 30/12/2016
7.20
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg STCBV.HE/STCBV FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 509
Current N° of shares (m) 72
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 47
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 381
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 7.27
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 5.08
Abs. perf. 1 mth 12.96%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 4.28%
Abs. perf. 12 mth 12.96%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 1,469 1,332 1,229
EBITDA (m) 20 79 113
EBITDA margin 1.3% 5.9% 9.2%
EBIT (m) (52) 20 56
EBIT margin nm 1.5% 4.6%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (89) (16) 29
ROCE -2.1% 0.8% 2.3%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 764 749 712
Net Debt/Equity 0.7 0.7 0.7
Debt/EBITDA 39.2 9.5 6.3
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 0.9 4.3 6.3
EV/Sales 0.8 0.9 0.9
EV/EBITDA 57.5 15.2 10.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 57.5 15.2 10.3
EV/EBIT nm 59.1 20.7
P/E (adj.) nm nm 17.3
P/BV 0.4 0.5 0.5
OpFCF yield 3.4% -3.7% 8.3%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) (1.23) (0.22) 0.41
BVPS 14.53 14.24 14.57
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
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STOCKMANN Stoxx General Retailers (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: HTT STC Holding Oy Ab 12%;
Föreningen Konstsamfundet -ryhmä 9%;
Svenska litteratursällskapet i Finland r.f.
8%;
Page 9 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Atlantia
Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE
Atlantia (Accumulate) The divestment of Hobby Hall completed as planned
Toll increases for Italian network
The facts: the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport and the Ministry of the
Economy and Finance issued a decree on toll increases
Our analysis: the toll increase to be applied from January 2017 by Autostrade
per l'Italia is 0.64%.
The increase, in accordance with the single concession agreement is the sum of
the following components: 0.00% corresponding to the inflation rate; 0.62%
designed to provide a return on capital expenditure via the X component; 0.02%
designed to provide a return on capital expenditure via the K component.
Conclusion & Action: the foregoing increase is in line with our assumptions.
Recommendation and target confirmed.
Analyst(s):
Francesco Sala, Banca Akros
francesco.sala@bancaakros.it
+39 02 4344 4240
Accumulate
22.26
closing price as of 30/12/2016
27.00
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ATL.MI/ATL IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 18,382
Current N° of shares (m) 826
Free float 52%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,982
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 25,356
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 24.65
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 19.59
Abs. perf. 1 mth 6.20%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -1.46%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -9.14%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 5,304 5,295 5,488
EBITDA (m) 3,215 3,349 3,475
EBITDA margin 60.6% 63.2% 63.3%
EBIT (m) 2,212 2,376 2,450
EBIT margin 41.7% 44.9% 44.7%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 741 915 959
ROCE 5.0% 5.3% 5.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 10,399 10,028 10,070
Net Debt/Equity 1.2 1.1 1.1
Debt/EBITDA 3.2 3.0 2.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.3 5.6 5.9
EV/Sales 6.1 5.7 5.5
EV/EBITDA 10.0 8.9 8.6
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.0 8.9 8.6
EV/EBIT 14.6 12.6 12.2
P/E (adj.) 27.3 20.1 19.2
P/BV 3.0 2.6 2.5
OpFCF yield 5.2% 6.5% 4.7%
Dividend yield 4.0% 4.4% 4.7%
EPS (adj.) 0.90 1.11 1.16
BVPS 8.13 8.49 8.82
DPS 0.88 0.97 1.04
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
dic 15 gen 16 feb 16 mar 16 apr 16 mag 16 giu 16 lug 16 ago 16 set 16 ott 16 nov 16 dic 16 gen 17
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ATLANTIA Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Sintonia 30%; Investco 8%; Blackrock
5%; Fondazione CRT 5%;
Page 10 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
SIAS
Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE
SIAS (Buy) Toll increases for Italian network
2017 toll increases
The facts: the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport and the Ministry of the
Economy and Finance issued a decree on toll increases
Our analysis: the following toll increases will be applied on the network managed
by Sias in Italy:
Ativa – 0.88%
Cisa – 0.24%
Satap A4 – 4.60%
Satap A 21 -0.81%
Torino Savona – 2.46%
Brebemi – 7.88%
Tem – 1.90%
Conclusion & Action: the negotiations over the tariff increases and the
concessions’ financial plans are still ongoing. We believe the present stock price
does not discount any positive outcome.
Analyst(s):
Francesco Sala, Banca Akros
francesco.sala@bancaakros.it
+39 02 4344 4240
Buy
8.10
closing price as of 30/12/2016
11.50
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg SIS.MI/SIS IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,843
Current N° of shares (m) 228
Free float 18%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 146
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 679
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 9.55
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 7.42
Abs. perf. 1 mth 5.54%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -4.71%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -17.35%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 1,088 1,090 1,201
EBITDA (m) 652 642 713
EBITDA margin 59.9% 58.9% 59.3%
EBIT (m) 357 345 445
EBIT margin 32.8% 31.7% 37.0%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 161 158 215
ROCE 5.3% 5.0% 6.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,575 1,591 1,158
Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.7 0.5
Debt/EBITDA 2.4 2.5 1.6
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 8.8 10.1 11.6
EV/Sales 3.0 2.7 2.1
EV/EBITDA 5.0 4.6 3.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.0 4.6 3.5
EV/EBIT 9.1 8.5 5.7
P/E (adj.) 13.9 11.7 8.6
P/BV 1.3 1.0 0.9
OpFCF yield 0.6% 3.5% 27.0%
Dividend yield 4.0% 4.2% 4.6%
EPS (adj.) 0.71 0.69 0.94
BVPS 7.71 8.04 8.67
DPS 0.32 0.34 0.37
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
dic 15 gen 16 feb 16 mar 16 apr 16 mag 16 giu 16 lug 16 ago 16 set 16 ott 16 nov 16 dic 16 gen 17
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SIAS Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Gavio Group 73%; Lazard AM 5%;
Generali Group 4%;
Page 11 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
SRV
Finland/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE
SRV (Buy) 2017 toll increases
SRV redeems its first hybrid bond
The facts: SRV announced on Thursday, 29 December, that it had redeemed the
final EUR 16.7m of the hybrid bond issued in 2012. The bond carried annual
coupon of 9.5%. SRV had previously redeemed part of this hybrid bond in 2016
while it issued a new hybrid bond worth EUR 45m. The annual coupon on this
hybrid bond is 8.75%, and the bond can be redeemed on 22 March 2020.
Our analysis: SRV has tied up a lot of capital in projects and its financial
expenses are high. Even though we estimate that operating profit will increase by
over EUR 10m this year, the shareholder's net profit will decrease. We expect
investments and strong volume growth to begin to improve the bottom line in
2017–2018.
Conclusion & Action: The earnings outlook for Q4 is strong, but the upside to
our EUR 5.50 target price has narrowed following the share price rise.
Analyst(s):
Matias Rautionmaa, OP Corporate Bank
matias.rautionmaa@op.fi
+358 10 252 4408
Buy
5.43
closing price as of 30/12/2016
5.50
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg SRV1V.HE/SRV1V FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 329
Current N° of shares (m) 60
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 24
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 170
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.44
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.69
Abs. perf. 1 mth 14.08%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 23.41%
Abs. perf. 12 mth 75.16%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 751 880 1,063
EBITDA (m) 28 39 54
EBITDA margin 3.7% 4.5% 5.0%
EBIT (m) 24 36 50
EBIT margin 3.3% 4.1% 4.7%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 14 15 28
ROCE 7.1% 8.8% 10.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 231 268 289
Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.9 0.9
Debt/EBITDA 8.3 6.8 5.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.1 2.3 3.7
EV/Sales 0.6 0.7 0.6
EV/EBITDA 16.6 16.3 12.4
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 16.6 16.3 12.4
EV/EBIT 19.0 17.8 13.3
P/E (adj.) 13.4 22.1 11.6
P/BV 0.7 1.1 1.1
OpFCF yield 23.9% -11.4% -3.4%
Dividend yield 1.8% 1.8% 2.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.23 0.25 0.47
BVPS 4.58 4.83 5.13
DPS 0.10 0.10 0.11
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
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SRV OMXH (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Kokkila Ilpo 22%; Kolpi Investments Oy
19%; Kokkila Timo 13%;
Page 12 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Atresmedia
Spain/Media Analyser
MEDIA
Atresmedia (Buy) SRV redeems its first hybrid bond
The Spanish series “Velvet” a case study
The facts: We have carried out a case study on the Spanish success series,
Velvet (timeless content being historical) and how it should serve as an example
on how to maximise the value of the Group’s in-house production.
Our analysis: The series was produced by Bambú Producciones (33% Studio
Canal) and the rights were later sold to A3M. The series began broadcasting in
2014 and includes 3 seasons (43 episodes), ending in the third week of
December. The series had an average 21% audience and 3.8m viewers.
Below is the virtual cycle of these types of productions
As observed, the rights are capitalised via:
International sales to over 20 countries in both original version and
adapted.
Multichannel broadcasting in national FTA. Especially targeted to the
female audience with medium/high purchasing power in channels such as
Antena 3, Nova and Atreseries. Rebroadcasted by international Pay-TV
channels.
Atresplayer’s wide ranged library, enriched with the streaming online
channel.
Merchandising
Conclusion: The main danger we see, and in fact taking place, is that said OTTs
begin to outsource independent production services such as Bambú (hired by
Netflix for its first series produced in Spain) and implies certain inflation in audio-
visual content production. The strategy for groups such as A3M includes:
Increase independent producer base.
Not take stakes in these and therefore not be obliged to acquire contents
from a single source. The intention is to prioritise talent without any ties.
We recommend taking positions in the stock prior to 4Q’ 2016 results.
Analyst(s):
Eduardo Garcia Arguelles, GVC Gaesco Beka
eduardo.garciaarguelles@gvcgaesco.es
+34 914 367 810
Buy
10.39
closing price as of 30/12/2016
13.20
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg A3M.MC/A3M SM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,345
Current N° of shares (m) 226
Free float 35%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 876
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,082
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 11.72
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 7.73
Abs. perf. 1 mth 6.67%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 6.45%
Abs. perf. 12 mth 4.84%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 970 1,022 1,070
EBITDA (m) 166 209 250
EBITDA margin 17.1% 20.5% 23.3%
EBIT (m) 145 188 228
EBIT margin 14.9% 18.4% 21.3%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 99 147 180
ROCE 20.8% 26.2% 30.2%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 160 150 135
Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.3 0.3
Debt/EBITDA 1.0 0.7 0.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 13.8 38.8 52.1
EV/Sales 2.5 2.4 2.3
EV/EBITDA 14.4 11.9 9.9
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.4 11.9 9.9
EV/EBIT 16.5 13.3 10.9
P/E (adj.) 22.4 16.0 13.1
P/BV 4.6 5.0 5.3
OpFCF yield 1.9% 4.3% 7.0%
Dividend yield 3.5% 5.3% 6.9%
EPS (adj.) 0.44 0.65 0.80
BVPS 2.15 2.07 1.96
DPS 0.36 0.55 0.72
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
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ATRESMEDIA Stoxx Media (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Grupo Planeta-de Agostini 42%; RTL
19%; Imagina 4%;
Page 13 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Euskaltel
Spain/Telecommunications Analyser
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Euskaltel (Buy) The Spanish series “Velvet” a case study
Bestinver exceeds 3%
The facts: According to the CNMV, Bestinver holds a 3.032% stake in the
operator.
Our analysis: This movement was in parallel to the positioning of other relevant
investors and the management. Specifically, we refer to 40 North Latitude
acquired 1% capital. Other shareholders also increased stakes such as UBS (9%)
and Artemis (5%).
On the other hand, the CEO also acquired 5,000 shares at EUR9.05/sh. in
Nov-16 thus is the second manager behind Albert Garcia Erauzkin who holds
0.235% capital.
Conclusion: The operator was listed at EUR12/share and has performed
negatively on the market (-27.3% in 2016) partially due to the sector and also
unstable management since the unexpected exit of the previous CEO.
However, this scenario is an opportunity to buy shares at current prices.
We lean on the following aspects: 1) important cash generation (c. 8% FCF yield
2017e) and high margins (EIBTDA mg 48.6% 2016e), synergies arising from the
acquisition of R in the ramp-up period mainly in 4Q’16/2017, attractive dividend
policy and positive impressions from the meeting with the new CEO (focus on
value generation for shareholders, advance in convergence and boosting n-play
service sales while maintaining capex under control).
Analyst(s):
Eduardo Garcia Arguelles, GVC Gaesco Beka
eduardo.garciaarguelles@gvcgaesco.es
+34 914 367 810
Buy
8.42
closing price as of 30/12/2016
12.00
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg EKT.MC/EKT SM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,279
Current N° of shares (m) 152
Free float 61%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 578
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,479
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 11.58
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 7.69
Abs. perf. 1 mth 4.97%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -4.91%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -27.29%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 327 570 580
EBITDA (m) 143 277 290
EBITDA margin 43.6% 48.6% 50.0%
EBIT (m) 64 154 169
EBIT margin 19.5% 26.9% 29.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 7 71 88
ROCE 2.3% 5.5% 5.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,358 1,243 1,137
Net Debt/Equity 1.9 1.6 1.2
Debt/EBITDA 9.5 4.5 3.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 2.7 6.5 7.4
EV/Sales 9.0 4.2 4.1
EV/EBITDA 20.7 8.7 8.1
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 20.7 8.7 8.1
EV/EBIT 46.2 15.8 13.9
P/E (adj.) nm 14.9 12.0
P/BV 2.1 1.4 1.1
OpFCF yield 5.6% 7.6% 8.3%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 6.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.05 0.56 0.70
BVPS 5.56 6.12 7.35
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.51
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
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EUSKALTEL Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Kutxabank 25%; Corp. Financ. Alba 10%;
JP Morgan Chase 4%;
Page 14 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Travel & Leisure
Analyser
TRAVEL & LEISURE
Bestinver exceeds 3% SPAIN: November incoming tourist data
The facts: INE released November incoming tourist data, with 4.1m
international visitors, +9.2% vs. November 2015. UK is the main feeder
country (21.1% total, +12.3% during the year). Germany and France are next
with +6.1% and +7.1%, respectively during the year. Year-to-date, the number
of incoming tourists grows at +10.1%, around 71.6m.
Our analysis: We highlight three aspects: 1) although the double digit
growths seen in recent months has been lost, data is still positive in terms of
incoming tourists maintaining double digits in the annual accumulated figure
and surpassing 2015 year-end (68m) thus a new high is expected in 2016, the
fourth consecutive which could be close to 75m (+10.2% during the year). 2)
Per receiving communities, all positive in accumulated terms, highlighting the
double digit growths in all except Catalonia. Standing out: Canary Islands
+12.7%; Madrid +12.6%; and Valencia +16.8%. 3) Lodgings: hotels (+11.2%)
continue to surpass rentals (+6.5%) in the accumulated terms.
Conclusion: Double digit growths continue in incoming tourists and hotel
lodgings continue to growth above rentals. Following the November close, the
year could close at c.75m tourist vs. 68m 2015 (+10.2%) and the fourth
consecutive annual high.
---------- Stoxx Travel & Leisure,
DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector
Analyst(s):
Sonia Ruiz De Garibay, GVC Gaesco Beka
sonia.ruizdegaribay@gvcgaesco.es
+34 91 436 7841
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
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Page 15 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
Finnair
Finland/Travel & Leisure Analyser
TRAVEL & LEISURE
Finnair (Reduce) SPAIN: November incoming tourist data
Finnair forced to cancel flights
The facts: Finnair had to cancel a total of seven flights on Sunday due to a ban
on pilots working additional flights and pilot roster changes. The Finnish Pilots'
Association has set a ban on Finnair’s pilots working additional flights and pilot
roster changes. The pilots' collective agreement expired on 15 November 2016
and the negotiations on a new agreement are still ongoing.
Our analysis: As a result of the training of pilots for new aircraft types, Finnair
has currently fewer pilots available for duty than normally. It is also possible that
additional cancellations will take place over the next few days. Costs are likely to
increase in the short term due to reorganisations and leasing additional capacity.
Conclusion & Action: We retain our recommendation and target price for Finnair
unchanged.
Analyst(s):
Jari Raisanen, OP Corporate Bank
jari.raisanen@op.fi
+358 10 252 4504
Reduce
4.03
closing price as of 30/12/2016
4.10
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg FIA1S.HE/FIA1S FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 516
Current N° of shares (m) 128
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 107
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 575
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.80
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.88
Abs. perf. 1 mth -4.05%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -8.20%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -25.65%
Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e
Sales (m) 2,255 2,335 2,450
EBITDA (m) 132 160 184
EBITDA margin 5.9% 6.8% 7.5%
EBIT (m) 122 105 148
EBIT margin 5.4% 4.5% 6.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 86 69 117
ROCE 31.2% 11.0% 13.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (358) (122) (76)
Net Debt/Equity -0.5 -0.2 -0.1
Debt/EBITDA -2.7 -0.8 -0.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 10.8 17.3 25.2
EV/Sales 0.1 0.2 0.2
EV/EBITDA 1.5 2.4 2.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 1.5 2.4 2.3
EV/EBIT 1.6 3.6 2.8
P/E (adj.) 44.8 10.8 7.9
P/BV 1.0 0.7 0.6
OpFCF yield -23.4% -54.4% -9.4%
Dividend yield 0.0% 1.2% 2.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.12 0.37 0.51
BVPS 5.67 6.03 6.61
DPS 0.00 0.05 0.10
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17
vvdsvdvsdy
FINNAIR OMXH (Rebased)Source: Factset
Shareholders: Suomen valtio / Valtioneuvoston kanslia
56%; Keva 5%; Ilmarinen Keskinäinen
Eläkevakuutusyhtiö 3%;
Page 16 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
European Coverage of the Members of ESN
A ero space & D efense M em(*) Caixabank GVC Nexans CIC Laurent Perrier CIC
Airbus Group CIC Commerzbank EQB Pkc Group OPG Ldc CIC
Dassault Aviation CIC Credem BAK Rexel CIC Naturex CIC
Latecoere CIC Credit Agrico le Sa CIC Schneider Electric Se CIC Olvi OPG
Leonardo BAK Creval BAK Vaisala OPG Parmalat BAK
Lisi CIC Deutsche Bank EQB Viscom EQB Pernod Ricard CIC
Ohb Se EQB Deutsche Pfandbriefbank EQB F inancial Services M em(*) Raisio OPG
Safran CIC Eurobank IBG Anima BAK Refresco Group NIBC
Thales CIC Intesa Sanpaolo BAK Athex Group IBG Remy Cointreau CIC
Zodiac Aerospace CIC M ediobanca BAK Azimut BAK Suedzucker EQB
A lternat ive Energy M em(*) M erkur Bank EQB Banca Generali BAK Vidrala GVC
Daldrup & Soehne EQB National Bank Of Greece IBG Banca Ifis BAK Vilmorin CIC
Gamesa GVC Natixis CIC Banca Sistema BAK Viscofan GVC
A uto mo biles & P arts M em(*) Nordea OPG Bb Biotech EQB Vranken Pommery M onopole CIC
Bittium Corporation OPG Piraeus Bank IBG Bolsas Y M ercados Espanoles Sa GVC Wessanen NIBC
Bmw EQB Poste Italiane BAK Capman OPG F o o d & D rug R etailers M em(*)
Brembo BAK Societe Generale CIC Christian Dior CIC Aholddelhaize NIBC
Continental EQB Ubi Banca BAK Cir BAK Carrefour CIC
Daimler Ag EQB Unicredit BAK Comdirect EQB Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC
Elringklinger EQB B asic R eso urces M em(*) Corp. Financiera Alba GVC Dia GVC
Faurecia CIC Acerinox GVC Deutsche Boerse EQB Jeronimo M artins CBI
Ferrari BAK Altri CBI Deutsche Forfait EQB Kesko OPG
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles BAK Arcelormittal GVC Eq OPG M arr BAK
Landi Renzo BAK Corticeira Amorim CBI Euronext CIC M etro EQB
Leoni EQB Ence GVC Ferratum EQB Sligro NIBC
M ichelin CIC Europac GVC Finecobank BAK Sonae CBI
Nokian Tyres OPG M etka IBG Grenke EQB General Industria ls M em(*)
Norma Group EQB M etsä Board OPG Hypoport Ag EQB 2G Energy EQB
Piaggio BAK M ytilineos IBG M lp EQB Aalberts NIBC
Plastic Omnium CIC Outokumpu OPG Ovb Holding Ag EQB Accell Group NIBC
Sogefi BAK Semapa CBI Patrizia EQB Ahlstrom OPG
Stern Groep NIBC Ssab OPG Rallye CIC Arcadis NIBC
Valeo CIC Stora Enso OPG Tip Tamburi Investment Partners BAK Aspo OPG
Volkswagen EQB Surteco EQB Unipol Gruppo Finanziario BAK Huhtamäki OPG
B anks M em(*) The Navigator Company CBI F o o d & B everage M em(*) Kendrion NIBC
Aareal Bank EQB Tubacex GVC Acomo NIBC Nedap NIBC
Aktia OPG Upm-Kymmene OPG Atria OPG Pöyry OPG
Alpha Bank IBG C hemicals M em(*) Bonduelle CIC Prelios BAK
Banca Carige BAK Air Liquide CIC Campari BAK Saf-Holland EQB
Banca M ps BAK Holland Colours NIBC Coca Cola Hbc Ag IBG Serge Ferrari Group CIC
Banco Popular GVC Kemira OPG Corbion NIBC Tkh Group NIBC
Banco Sabadell GVC Kws Saat EQB Danone CIC Wendel CIC
Banco Santander GVC Linde EQB Ebro Foods GVC
Bankia GVC Siegfried Holding Ag EQB Enervit BAK
Bankinter GVC Tikkurila OPG Fleury M ichon CIC
Bbva GVCElectro nic & Electrical
EquipmentM em(*) Forfarmers NIBC
Bcp CBI Areva CIC Heineken NIBC
Bnp Paribas CIC Euromicron Ag EQB Hkscan OPG
Bper BAK Legrand CIC La Doria BAK
Bpi CBI Neways Electronics NIBC Lanson-Bcc CIC
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General R etailers M em(*) Datalogic BAK Cramo OPG M ediaset Espana GVC
Beter Bed Holding NIBC Deutz Ag EQB Eiffage CIC Notorious Pictures BAK
Elumeo Se EQB Duro Felguera GVC Ellaktor IBG Nrj Group CIC
Fielmann EQB Emak BAK Eltel OPG Publicis CIC
Folli Fo llie Group IBG Exel Composites OPG Ezentis GVC Rcs M ediagroup BAK
Fourlis Holdings IBG Gesco EQB Fcc GVC Relx NIBC
Groupe Fnac Sa CIC Ima BAK Ferrovial GVC Rtl Group EQB
Inditex GVC Interpump BAK Heidelberg Cement Ag CIC Sanoma OPG
Jumbo IBG Kone OPG Heijmans NIBC Solocal Group CIC
M acintosh NIBC Konecranes OPG Imerys CIC Spir Communication CIC
Rapala OPG M anz Ag EQB Lafargeholcim CIC Syzygy Ag EQB
Stockmann OPG M ax Automation Ag EQB Lehto OPG Telegraaf M edia Groep NIBC
Yoox Net-A-Porter BAK M etso Corporation OPG Lemminkäinen OPG Tf1 CIC
H ealthcare M em(*) Outotec OPG M aire Tecnimont BAK Ubisoft CIC
4Sc EQB Pfeiffer Vacuum EQB M ota Engil CBI Vivendi CIC
Amplifon BAK Ponsse OPG Obrascon Huarte Lain GVC Wolters Kluwer NIBC
Bayer EQB Prima Industrie BAK Ramirent OPG Oil & Gas P ro ducers M em(*)
Biotest EQB Prysmian BAK Royal Bam Group NIBC Eni BAK
Cytotools Ag EQB Smt Scharf Ag EQB Sacyr GVC Galp Energia CBI
Diasorin BAK Technotrans EQB Saint Gobain CIC Gas Plus BAK
Epigenomics Ag EQB Valmet OPG Salini Impregilo BAK Hellenic Petro leum IBG
Fresenius EQB Wärtsilä OPG Sias BAK M aurel Et Prom CIC
Fresenius M edical Care EQB Zardoya Otis GVC Sonae Industria CBI M otor Oil IBG
Gerresheimer Ag EQB Industria l T ranspo rtat io n M em(*) Srv OPG Neste Corporation OPG
Korian CIC Bollore CIC Thermador Groupe CIC Petrobras CBI
M erck EQB Caf GVC Titan Cement IBG Qgep CBI
Orio la-Kd OPG Ctt CBI Trevi BAK Repsol GVC
Orion OPG Logwin EQB Uponor OPG Total CIC
Orpea CIC Insurance M em(*) Vicat CIC Oil Services M em(*)
Pihlajalinna OPG Allianz EQB Vinci CIC Bourbon CIC
Recordati BAK Axa CIC Yit OPG Cgg CIC
Rhoen-Klinikum EQB Banca M edio lanum BAK M edia M em(*) Fugro NIBC
Wilex EQB Catto lica Assicurazioni BAK Ad Pepper EQB Rubis CIC
H o useho ld Go o ds M em(*) Generali BAK Alma M edia OPG Saipem BAK
Bic CIC Hannover Re EQB Atresmedia GVC Sbm Offshore NIBC
De Longhi BAK M apfre Sa GVC Axel Springer EQB Technip CIC
Fila BAK M unich Re EQB Axelero BAK Tecnicas Reunidas GVC
Osram Licht Ag EQB Sampo OPG Brill NIBC Tenaris BAK
Philips Lighting NIBC Talanx Group EQB Cofina CBI Vallourec CIC
Seb Sa CIC Unipolsai BAK Cts Eventim EQB Vopak NIBC
Zumtobel Group Ag EQBM aterials, C o nstruct io n &
InfrastructureM em(*) Editoriale L'Espresso BAK
Industria l Engineering M em(*) Abertis GVC Gl Events CIC
Accsys Technologies NIBC Acs GVC Havas CIC
Aixtron EQB Aena GVC Impresa CBI
Alstom CIC Aeroports De Paris CIC Io l BAK
Ansaldo Sts BAK Astaldi BAK Ipsos CIC
Biesse BAK Atlantia BAK Jcdecaux CIC
Cargotec Corp OPG Boskalis Westminster NIBC Lagardere CIC
Cnh Industrial BAK Buzzi Unicem BAK M 6-M etropole Television CIC
Danieli BAK Caverion OPG M ediaset BAK
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P erso nal Go o ds M em(*) Ctac NIBC Ingenico CIC Acea BAK
Adidas EQB Digia OPG Kontron EQB Albioma CIC
Adler M odemaerkte EQB Docdata NIBC Nokia OPG Direct Energie CIC
Amer Sports OPG Econocom CIC Roodmicrotec NIBC Edp CBI
Basic Net BAK Ekinops CIC Slm Solutions EQB Edp Renováveis CBI
Cie Fin. Richemont CIC Esi Group CIC Stmicroelectronics BAK Enagas GVC
Geox BAK Exprivia BAK Suess M icrotec EQB Endesa GVC
Gerry Weber EQB F-Secure OPG Teleste OPG Enel BAK
Hermes Intl. CIC Gemalto CIC T eleco mmunicat io ns M em(*) Erg BAK
Hugo Boss EQB Gft Technologies EQB Acotel BAK Eydap IBG
Interparfums CIC Ict Group NIBC Deutsche Telekom EQB Falck Renewables BAK
Kering CIC Indra Sistemas GVC Drillisch EQB Fortum OPG
L'Oreal CIC Nemetschek Se EQB Elisa OPG Gas Natural Fenosa GVC
Luxottica BAK Neurones CIC Euskaltel GVC Hera BAK
Lvmh CIC Nexus Ag EQB Freenet EQB Iberdro la GVC
M arimekko OPG Novabase CBI Kpn Telecom NIBC Iren BAK
M oncler BAK Ordina NIBC M asmovil GVC Italgas BAK
Puma EQB Psi EQB Nos CBI Public Power Corp IBG
Safilo BAK Reply BAK Oi CBI Red Electrica De Espana GVC
Salvatore Ferragamo BAK Rib Software EQB Orange CIC Ren CBI
Sarantis IBG Seven Principles Ag EQB Ote IBG Snam BAK
Technogym BAK Software Ag EQB Tele Columbus EQB Terna BAK
Tod'S BAK Sopra Steria Group CIC Telecom Italia BAK
R eal Estate M em(*) Tie Kinetix NIBC Telefonica GVC
Adler Real Estate EQB Tieto OPG Telia OPG
Beni Stabili BAK Tomtom NIBC Tiscali BAK
Citycon OPG United Internet EQB Vodafone BAK
Demire EQB Visiativ CIC T ravel & Leisure M em(*)
Deutsche Euroshop EQB Wincor Nixdorf EQB Accor CIC
Grand City Properties EQB Suppo rt Services M em(*) Air France Klm CIC
Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios GVC Amadeus GVC Autogrill BAK
Igd BAK Asiakastieto Group OPG Beneteau CIC
Lar España GVC Batenburg NIBC Elior CIC
M erlin Properties GVC Bureau Veritas S.A. CIC Europcar CIC
Realia GVC Cellnex Telecom GVC Finnair OPG
Sponda OPG Dpa NIBC I Grandi Viaggi BAK
Technopolis OPG Edenred CIC Iberso l CBI
Vib Vermoegen EQB Ei Towers BAK Int. A irlines Group GVC
Wcm Ag EQB Enav BAK Intralo t IBG
So ftware & C o mputer Services M em(*) Fiera M ilano BAK Kotipizza OPG
Affecto OPG Lassila & Tikanoja OPG M elia Hotels International GVC
Akka Technologies CIC Openjobmetis BAK Nh Hotel Group GVC
Alten CIC Teleperformance CIC Opap IBG
Altran CICT echno lo gy H ardware &
EquipmentM em(*) Snowworld NIBC
Assystem CIC Asm International NIBC Sodexo CIC
Atos CIC Asml NIBC Sonae Capital CBI
Basware OPG Besi NIBC Trigano CIC
Capital For Progress 1 BAK Elmos Semiconductor EQB Utilit ies M em(*)
Cenit EQB Ericsson OPG A2A BAK
Comptel OPG Gigaset EQB Acciona GVC
LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CM CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banca de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Beksa, SV, SA; EQB: Equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of
Greece, NIBC: NIBC Markets N.V: OPG: OP Corporate Bank:; as of 1st December 2016
Page 19 of 21
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List of ESN Analysts (**)
Ari Agopyan CIC +33 1 53 48 80 63 ari.agopyan@cmcic.fr Victoria Kruchevska (CFA,FRM) EQB +49 69 5 89 97 416 victoria.kruchevska@equinet-ag.de
Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 artur.amaro@caixabi.pt Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 jeanchristophe.lefevremoulenq@cmcic.fr
Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 helena.barbosa@caixabi.pt Konstantinos Manolopoulos IBG +30 210 817 3388 kmanolopoulos@ibg.gr
Javier Bernat GVC +34 91 436 7816 jav ier.bernat@gvcgaesco.es Katharina Mayer EQB +49 69 58997-432 katharina.mayer@equinet-ag.de
Dimitris Birbos IBG +30 210 81 73 392 dbirbos@ibg.gr Dario Michi BAK +39 02 4344 4237 dario.michi@bancaakros.it
Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 agnes.blazy@cmcic.fr Marietta Miemietz CFA EQB +49-69-58997-439 marietta.miemietz@equinet-ag.de
Charles Edouard Boissy CIC +33 01 53 48 80 81 charlesedouard.boissy@cmcic.fr José Mota Freitas, CFA CBI +351 22 607 09 31 mota.freitas@caixabi.pt
Rafael Bonardell GVC +34 91 436 78 71 rafael.bonardell@gvcgaesco.es Henri Parkkinen OPG +358 10 252 4409 henri.parkkinen@op.fi
Louise Boyer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 68 louise.boyer@cmcic.fr Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 victor.peiro@gvcgaesco.es
Christian Bruns EQB +49 69 58997 415 christian.bruns@equinet-ag.de Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 francis.pretre@cmcic.fr
Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 giada.cabrino@bancaakros.it Francesco Previtera BAK +39 02 4344 4033 francesco.prev itera@bancaakros.it
Arnaud Cadart CIC +33 1 53 48 80 86 arnaud.cadart@cmcic.fr Jari Raisanen OPG +358 10 252 4504 jari.raisanen@op.fi
Niclas Catani OPG +358 10 252 8780 niclas.catani@op.fi Hannu Rauhala OPG +358 10 252 4392 hannu.rauhala@op.fi
Pierre Chedeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 pierre.chedeville@cmcic.fr Matias Rautionmaa OPG +358 10 252 4408 matias.rautionmaa@op.fi
Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 emmanuel.chevalier@cmcic.fr Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 eric.ravary@cmcic.fr
David Consalvo CIC +33 1 53 48 80 64 david.consalvo@cmcic.fr Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 inigo.recio@gvcgaesco.es
Edwin de Jong NIBC +312 0 5508569 edwin.de.jong@nibc.com Gerard Rijk NIBC + 31 (0)20 550 8572 gerard.rijk@nibc.com
Martijn den Drijver NIBC +312 0 5508636 martijn.den.drijver@nibc.com André Rodrigues CBI +351 21 389 68 39 andre.rodrigues@caixabi.pt
Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 christian.devismes@cmcic.fr Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 jeanluc.romain@cmcic.fr
Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 andrea.devita@bancaakros.it Vassilis Roumantzis IBG +30 2108173394 vroumantzis@ibg.gr
Sebastian Droste EQB +49 69 58 99 74 34 sebastian.droste@equinet-ag.de Sonia Ruiz De Garibay GVC +34 91 436 7841 sonia.ruizdegaribay@gvcgaesco.es
Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 enrico.esposti@bancaakros.it Antti Saari OPG +358 10 252 4359 antti.saari@op.fi
Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 rafael.fernandezdeheredia@gvcgaesco.es Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 paola.saglietti@bancaakros.it
Enrico Filippi, CEFA BAK +39 02 4344 4071 enrico.filippi@bancaakros.it Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 francesco.sala@bancaakros.it
Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it Tim Schuldt, CFA EQB +49 69 5899 7433 tim.schuldt@equinet-ag.de
Eduardo Garcia Arguelles GVC +34 914 367 810 eduardo.garciaarguelles@gvcgaesco.es Cengiz Sen EQB +4969 58997 435 cengiz.sen@equinet-ag.de
Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 alexandre.gerard@cmcic.fr Pekka Spolander OPG +358 10 252 4351 pekka.spolander@op.fi
Philipp Häßler, CFA EQB +49 69 58997 414 philipp.haessler@equinet-ag.de Kimmo Stenvall OPG +358 10 252 4561 kimmo.stenvall@op.fi
Simon Heilmann EQB +49 69 58 997 413 simon.heilmann@equinet-ag.de Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi IBG +30 210 81 73 384 nsviriadi@ibg.gr
Dr. Knud Hinkel, CFA EQB + 49 69 58997 419 knud.hinkel@equinet-ag.de Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 luigi.tramontana@bancaakros.it
Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 carlos.jesus@caixabi.pt Johan van den Hooven NIBC +312 0 5508518 johan.van.den.hooven@nibc.com
Mark Josefson EQB +4969-58997-437 mark.josefson@equinet-ag.de Kévin Woringer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 kevin.woringer@cmcic.fr
(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts
Page 20 of 21
Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of
a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement)
over a 12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy
(B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the
stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time horizon
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer
Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets
ESN Ratings Breakdown
Date and time of production:02 janvier 2017 09:11 am CET First date and time of dissemination: 02 janvier 2017 9:14 am CET
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Additional information is always available upon request. For additional
information and individual disclaimers please refer to www.esnpartnership.eu
and to each ESN Member websites:
www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
www.cmcicms.com regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers
www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission
www.nibcmarkets.com regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financiële Markten
www.op.fi regulated by the Financial Supervision Authority
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Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)
Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33
1269-057 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 21 313 73 00
Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
GVC Gaesco Beka, SV, SA
C/ Marques de Villamagna 3
28001 Madrid
Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813
Investment Bank of Greece
32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,
151 25 Maroussi,
Greece
Tel: +30 210 81 73 383
Banca Akros S.p.A.
Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 MILANO
Italy
Phone: +39 02 43 444 389
Fax: +39 02 43 444 302
NIBC Markets N.V.
Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064
CM - CIC Market Solutions
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
Phone: +33 1 53 48 80 78
Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25
equinet Bank AG
Gräfstraße 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 212
Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299
OP Corporate Bank plc
P.O.Box 308
Teollisuuskatu 1, 00013 Helsinki
Finland
Phone: +358 10 252 011
Fax: +358 10 252 2703
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