EOF1 EOF2 EOF310.1007...EOF1 EOF2 EOF3 Obs. GISS-AOM ECHAM5/MPI-OM CMIP3 CMIP5 Supplemental Fig. 1...

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EOF1 EOF2 EOF3

Obs.

GISS-AOM

ECHAM5/MPI

-OM

CMIP3

CMIP5

Supplemental Fig. 1 First three leading EOF patterns, as in Fig. 10, but of high-pass SSTA in the

Tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific for a selection of model simulations and observations. In addition to

the observations, the CMIP3 and CMIP5 super models, the models with the largest (GISS-AOM) and

smallest (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) RMSEEOF value are shown.

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(a) 37%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(b) 7.7%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(d) 8.5%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(e) 6.4%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(f) 5.2%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(g) 43.8%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(h) 7.3%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(i) 4.4%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(j) 31.5%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(k) 5.3%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(l) 3.5%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(m) 25.1%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(n) 4.5%

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW

20oS

10oS

10oN

20oN

(o) 3.9%

120 oE

150 oE 180oW 150o W

120o W

20 oN 30 oN

40 oN 50 oN

60 oN

−1 −0.5 0 0.5 1

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