Environmental Change in Siberia978-90-481-8641...Editor Heiko Balzter Department of Geography...

Environmental Change in Siberia

ADVANCES IN GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

VOLUME 40

Editor-in-Chief

Martin Beniston, University of Geneva, Switzerland

Editorial Advisory Board

B. Allen-Diaz, Department ESPM-Ecosystem Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.

R.S. Bradley, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA.

W. Cramer, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

H.F. Diaz, Climate Diagnostics Center, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA.

S. Erkman, Institute for communication and Analysis of Science and Technology–ICAST, Geneva, Switzerland.

R. Garcia Herrera, Faculated de Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain.M. Lal, Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India.U. Luterbacher, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, University of Geneva,

Geneva, Switzerland.I. Noble, CRC for Greenhouse Accounting and Research School of Biological Science,

Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.L. Tessier, Institut Mediterranéen d’Ecologie et Paléoécologie, Marseille, France.F. Toth, International Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ec Joint Research

Centre, Ispra (VA), Italy.M.M. Verstraete, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ec Joint Research Centre,

Ispra (VA), Italy.

For other titles published in this series, go towww.springer.com/series/5588

Heiko BalzterEditor

Environmental Change in Siberia

Earth Observation, Field Studies and Modelling

EditorHeiko BalzterDepartment of GeographyUniversity of Leicester, Centre for Environmental ResearchUniversity RoadLeicesterUnited Kingdomhb91@le.ac.uk

ISBN 978-90-481-8640-2 e-ISBN 978-90-481-8641-9DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-8641-9Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York

Library of Congress Control Number: 2010927687

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.

Cover illustration: Main photo: The foreground features subalpine meadows surrounding by Pinus Sibirica dominated woodlands, the background an alpine ridge in the Ergaki mountains called “Sleeping Sayan”, photo by D.M. Ismailova. Top photo: A Larix sibirica above a landscape leading towards the South Altai Mountains, photo by V.I. Kharuk.

Printed on acid-free paper

Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

To Judith, Dominik and Julian...

vii

Preface

The Siberian environment is a unique region of the world that is both very strongly affected by global climate change and at the same time particularly vulnerable to its consequences. The news about the melting of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and the prospect of an ice-free shipping passage from Scandinavia to Alaska along the Russian north coast has sparked an international debate about natural resource exploitation, national boundaries and the impacts of the rapid changes on people, animals and plants. Over the last decades Siberia has also witnessed severe forest fires to an extent that is hard to imagine in other parts of the world where the popu-lation density is higher, the fire-prone ecosystems cover much smaller areas and the systems of fire control are better resourced. The acceleration of the fire regime poses the question of the future of the boreal forest in the taiga region. Vegetation models have already predicted a shift of vegetation zones to the north under sce-narios of global climate change. The implications of a large-scale expansion of the grassland steppe ecosystems in the south of Siberia and a retreat of the taiga forest into the tundra systems that expand towards the Arctic Ocean would be very signifi-cant for the local population and the economy.

I have studied Russian forests from remote sensing and modelling for about 11 years now and still find it a fascinating subject to investigate. Over this time period Russia has undergone substantial social, political and economic changes and devel-oped excellent remote sensing centres that now enjoy a world wide reputation. From 1998 to 2000 the European funded project SIBERIA, in which I started my post-doctoral research career and which was led by Professor Chris Schmullius from Jena, produced the first Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) map of forest growing stock over an area of 1 million square kilometers. At the time, the German Aerospace Agency (DLR) had to move a mobile receiving station to Lake Baikal to be able to record the first SAR images of the region. The forest map used over 600 images from three radar sensors, and led to the insight that the remaining forest cover in Siberia is much less than previous global change studies assumed. In the follow-on project SIBERIA-II we examined a much wider concept of using a whole range of biophysi-cal data products from a multitude of satellites in a full greenhouse gas account over a region of 3 million square kilometers. This study was the first such attempt to incorporate many variables that would now be called Essential Climate Variables by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) into a real greenhouse gas account.

viii Preface

When I took up the Chair in Physical Geography at the University of Leicester in 2006 I invited a number of eminent researchers with interests in environmental change in Siberia to visit Leicester for a Symposium on Environmental Change in Siberia. We enjoyed 2 days packed with exciting presentations and full of inspiring conversations over coffee, tea and dinner. This book is primarily the outcome of this Symposium with a few additions from authors who I invited to contribute. I am particularly grateful to the University of Leicester for its financial support for the Symposium and to all participants for their contributions to this book. I also want to thank Alex Szumski who was a crucial helper in getting the book manuscript to the printing stage.

The structure of this book covers environmental change processes in the bio-sphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere and concludes with two contributions on environmental information systems that are being developed to safeguard data that are vital to further advance our understanding of Siberian ecosystems.

Leicester, September 2009 Prof. Heiko Balzter

ix

Contents

Part I Biosphere

1 Forest Disturbance Assessment Using Satellite Data of Moderate and Low Resolution ............................................................ 3M.A. Korets, V.A. Ryzhkova, I.V. Danilova, A.I. Sukhinin, and S.A. Bartalev

2 Fire/Climate Interactions in Siberia ....................................................... 21H. Balzter, K. Tansey, J. Kaduk, C. George, F. Gerard, M. Cuevas Gonzalez, A. Sukhinin, and E. Ponomarev

3 Long-Term Dynamics of Mixed Fir-Aspen Forests in West Sayan (Altai-Sayan Ecoregion) .................................................. 37D.M. Ismailova and D.I. Nazimova

4 Evidence of Evergreen Conifers Invasion into Larch Dominated Forests During Recent Decades ........................................... 53V.I. Kharuk, K.J. Ranson, and M.L. Dvinskaya

5 Potential Climate-Induced Vegetation Change in Siberia in the Twenty-First Century ................................................... 67N.M. Tchebakova, E.I. Parfenova, and A.J. Soja

6 Wildfire Dynamics in Mid-Siberian Larch Dominated Forests ............ 83V.I. Kharuk, K.J. Ranson, and M.L. Dvinskaya

7 Dendroclimatological Evidence of Climate Changes Across Siberia ........................................................................................... 101V.V. Shishov and E.A. Vaganov

x Contents

8 Siberian Pine and Larch Response to Climate Warming in the Southern Siberian Mountain Forest: Tundra Ecotone ............. 115V.I. Kharuk, K.J. Ranson, M.L. Dvinskaya, and S.T. Im

Part II Hydrosphere

9 Remote Sensing of Spring Snowmelt in Siberia ................................... 135A. Bartsch, W. Wagner, and R. Kidd

10 Response of River Runoff in the Cryolithic Zone of Eastern Siberia (Lena River Basin) to Future Climate Warming .................................................................................... 157A.G. Georgiadi, I.P. Milyukova, and E.A. Kashutina

Part III Atmosphere

11 Investigating Regional Scale Processes Using Remotely Sensed Atmospheric CO2 Column Concentrations from SCIAMACHY ................................................................................ 173M.P. Barkley, A.J. Hewitt, and P.S. Monks

12 Climatic and Geographic Patterns of Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Siberia ...................................................................... 193A. Onuchin and T. Burenina

Part IV Information Systems

13 Interoperability, Data Discovery and Access: The e-Infrastructures for Earth Sciences Resources ........................... 213S. Nativi, C. Schmullius, L. Bigagli, and R. Gerlach

14 Development of a Web-Based Information-Computational Infrastructure for the Siberia Integrated Regional Study .................. 233E.P. Gordov, A.Z. Fazliev, V.N. Lykosov, I.G. Okladnikov, and A.G. Titov

15 Conclusions .............................................................................................. 253H. Balzter

Appendix .......................................................................................................... 255

Index ................................................................................................................. 279

xi

Contributors

Heiko BalzterDepartment of Geography, University of Leicester, Centre for Environmental Research, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UKhb91@le.ac.uk

M.P. BarkleySchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building, The King’s Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JN, UKMichael.Barkley@ed.ac.uk

S.A. BartalevSpace Research Institute (IKI), 117997, 84/32 Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, Russiabartalev@smis.iki.rssi.ru

A. BartschInstitute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vienna University of Technology, Gusshausstraße 27–29, 1040 Vienna, Austriaab@ipf.tuwien.ac.at

Lorenzo BigagliFriedrich-Schiller-University, Institute for Geography, Earth Observation, Grietgasse 6, 07743 Jena, Germanylorenzo.bigagli@pin.unifi.it

T. BureninaV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russiaburenina@ksc.krasn.ru

Maria Cuevas GonzalezCentre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKcuevasgonzalez@gmail.com

xii Contributors

I.V. DanilovaSukachev Institute of Forest (SIF), 660036, 50/28, Akademgorodok str., Krasnoyarsk, Russiativ80@ksc.krasn.ru

M.L. DvinskayaV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Academgorodok, 50, Russia mary_dvi@ksc.krasn.ru

A.Z. FazlievInstitute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, 634055, Tomsk, Akademicheski ave., 1, Russiafaz@iao.ru

Charles GeorgeCentre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKctg@ceh.ac.uk

A.G. GeorgiadiInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per., 29, 119017 Moscow, Russia galex50@gmail.com

France GerardCentre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKffg@ceh.ac.uk

Roman GerlachFriedrich-Schiller-University, Institute for Geography, Earth Observation, Grietgasse 6, 07743 Jena, Germanyroman.gerlach@uni-jena.de

E.P. GordovSiberian Center for Environmental research and Training and Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, 634055, Tomsk, Akademicheski ave., 10/3, Russiagordov@scert.ru

A.J. HewittEarth Observation Science group, Departments of Physics and Chemistry, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UKajh67@le.ac.uk

S.T. ImV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russia stim@ksc.krasn.ru

xiiiContributors

D.M. IsmailovaV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russiadismailova@mail.ru

Jörg KadukCentre for Environmental Research, Department of Geography University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UKj.kaduk@leicester.ac.uk

E.A. KashutinaInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per., 29, 119017 Moscow, Russia kategeo@mail.ru

V.I. KharukV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Academgorodok, 50, Russiakharuk@ksc.krasn.ru

R. KiddInstitute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vienna University of Technology, Gusshausstraße, 27–29, 1040 Vienna, Austria and now at Spatial Information & Mapping Centre, Banda Aceh, Indonesiarichard.a.kidd@gmail.com

M.A. KoretsSukachev Institute of Forest (SIF), 50/28, Akademgorodok street, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Russiamik@ksc.krasn.ru

V.N. LykosovInstitute for Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russialykossov@inm.ras.ru

I.P. MilyukovaInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per., 29, 119017 Moscow, Russia mil-ira@list.ru

P.S. MonksEarth Observation Science group, Departments of Physics and Chemistry, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UKp.s.monks@le.ac.uk

Stefano NativiItalian National Research Council – IMAA and University of Florence at Pratonativi@imaa.cnr.it

xiv Contributors

D.I. NazimovaV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russiainpol@mail.ru

I.G. OkladnikovSiberian Center for Environmental research and Training and Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, 634055, Tomsk, Akademicheski ave., 10/3, Russia onuchin@ksc.krasn.ru

A. OnuchinV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russiaonuchin@ksc.krasn.ru

E.I. ParfenovaV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russia 02611@rambler.ru

Evgeni PonomarevSukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Academgorogok, Russiaevg@ksc.krasn.ru

K.J. RansonNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USAjon.ranson@nasa.gov

V.A. RyzhkovaSukachev Institute of Forest (SIF), 50/28, Akademgorodok Street, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Russiavera@ksc.krasn.ru

Christiana SchmulliusFriedrich-Schiller-University, Institute for Geography, Earth Observation, Grietgasse 6, 07743 Jena, Germanyc.schmullius@uni-jena.de

Vladimir V. ShishovIT and Math. Modelling Department, Krasnoyarsk State Trade-Economical Institute, L. Prushinskoi St., Krasnoyarsk, 660075, Russiashishov@forest.akadem.ruAnd Dendroecology Department, Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Akademgorodok St., Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russia

xvContributors

A.J. SojaNational Institute of Aerospace, Resident at NASA Langley Research Center 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, USAAmber.J.Soja@nasa.gov

A.I. SukhininSukachev Institute of Forest (SIF), 660036, 50/28, Akademgorodok str., Krasnoyarsk, Russiaboss@ksc.krasn.ru

Kevin TanseyCentre for Environmental Research, Department of Geography University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UKkjt7@le.ac.uk

N.M. TchebakovaV.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50, Russiancheby@ksc.krasn.ru

A.G. TitovSiberian Center for Environmental research and Training and Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, 634055, Tomsk, Akademicheski ave., 10/3, Russiatitov@scert.ru

Eugene A. VaganovSiberian Federal University, 79 Svobodnji Ave, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russiainstitute@forest.akadem.ru

W. WagnerInstitute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vienna University of Technology, Gusshausstraße, 27–29, 1040 Vienna, Austriaww@ipf.tuwien.ac.at