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Energy, Economic Growth and the Environment
John BarrettUniversity of Leeds
Scale of the challenge
Source: IPCC (2014)
UK Climate Challenge
UK Climate Challenge
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Gt C CCC
Suggested Targets
Production
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Gt C
UK Emissions 2012 – 2100 to achieve equitable 2 degree benchmark with 67% probability
97% reduction by 2050
Comparison of 2 degree equitable reduction with CCC budgets
67% reduction by 2027
Global trade
Source: Barrett et al (2013)
Global trade
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Meg
aton
nes
CO2e
UK comsumption-basedemissions
UK territorial emissions
Source: Barrett et al (2013)
Global trade
0
200
400
600
800
1000
120019
90
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
Gt C
O2e
Territorial Emissions
80% reduction target
Consumption Emissions
Additional burden
Source: www.emissions.leeds.ac.uk
Energy demand
Source: DUKES (2015)
Energy demand
Source: DUKES (2015)
Energy demand
Source: DUKES (2015)
43%
15%
22%
20%
Industry
Other
Transport
Domestic
Energy demand
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010 -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Eora ImportsEora Domestic
Peta
Joul
es
EU Energy Flows
Linking energy to the global economy
Direct Efficiency Options
• Improvements in material efficiency
• Heat transfer• Fuel substitution
Direct energy efficiency options
Source: Climate Strategies (2014)
Direct energy efficiency options
Source: Climate Strategies (2014)
Industry rebound effects
Source: Saunders (2013)
Energy services efficiency approach
• Lean Production• Service business
models• Waste recycling and
reduction• Circular economy• Material substitution
• Public sector procurement
• Lifetime optimisation• Good to services• Reducing waste
Findings inefficiencies – the car
Material manufacturing
5 – 15%
Vehiclesmanufacturing
20 – 25%
Car use
50 – 80%
Material Car occupancy
40 – 60%
Resource efficiency strategies
Source: Barrett and Scott(2012)
Policy Options
IPCC Summary: Based on Figure 10.15
Policy Options
Economy wide approach
• Materials tax• Energy demand target
and tax / market
Sector response
• Construction (NIPs, Allowable Solutions)
• Vehicles (Weight regulations, VAT exemptions)
Consumer solutions
• Mandatory warranties • Goods to services
Extending existing policies
Current regulation Possible addition Additional requirementsEcoDesign Directive Within current scope to set
requirements to address some aspects of embodied emissions, including minimum guaranteed product lifetimes and promoting modularity, upgrading and repair (European Union 2009).
More appropriate methods to be used for preparatory studies in the EcoDesign Directive, which used more recent data, accounted for technology development and took into account product lifetimes.
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
Extend current requirements to include embodied energy in the integrated energy performance of buildings (Szalay 2007).
Standardisation of the calculation of embodied energy for building elements and processes.
Vehicle Emissions Performance Standard
Extend standards to include whole-lifetime emissions (Correia et al 2014).
Standardisation for the calculation of embodied emissions for vehicle elements and processes.
Extending existing policies
Climate policy Operational emissions
Embodied emissions Embodied emissions originating in EU ETS sectors
Emissions outside scope of EU climate mitigation policy
EU Non-EU Annex I
Non-Annex I
EU ETS 1.9 billion tonnes
- - - - -
Vehicle emissions standards
12% of the EU's emissions of CO2
173.24 56.42 116.23 110.91 234.98
Ecodesign Directive
- 99.52 35.51 92.52 59.24 168.31
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
36% (commercial and residential only = 15%)
503.36 83.03 174.81 357.96 403.24
Distribution effects
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Co2e
(t)
Other
Miscellaneous goods and services
Restaurants and hotels
Education
Recreation and culture
Communication
Transport
Health
Household goods and services
Housing, fuel and power
Clothing and footwear
Alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics
Food and non-alcoholic drinks
Adaptive dynamic policy
Source: Haasnoot et al (2013)
Further research
Economics of material efficiency – Implications for jobs, GDP, trade,
investment, deficitsDevelopment of a macro-economic model
Establishing industry responses to changing business models
Policy responses to material efficiency
Responses to changing in the construction sector
Case study analysis of different industry responses from construction, car
manufacturing and household durables
Agent based modelling of key actors from EU and national policy making
organisations
Development of a bottom up and top down model of building types
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