Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights...5 June 2013 IFIEC Europe — Brussels...

London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro,

Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

European gas and global LNG

5 June 2013

IFIEC Europe — Brussels

US shale — coal now

US shale — coal now, LNG later?

Shale drives record US gas production

US marketed gas production

Gustav/Ike

Katrina/Rita

Gustav/Ike

Katrina/Rita

+628mn m³/d

or + 2.6 times

UK demand

each day

Gustav/Ike

Katrina/Rita

or + 1.6 times

Chinese demand

each day

Gustav/Ike

Katrina/Rita

Dry onshore Associated Coalbed Dry offshore Alaska Tight Shale

US production

35pc shale in

Dry onshore Associated Coalbed Dry offshore Alaska Tight Shale

US production

35pc shale in

US production

50pc shale in

US electricity turns away from coal

Coal Gas Nuclear Renewable Other

US electricity turns away from coal

Coal Gas Nuclear Renewable Other

Coal Gas Nuclear renewable other

16pc gas

30pc gas

coal export

mn t/y

Net exports 2005 AEO

coal export

mn t/y

Net imports 2005 AEO 2013 AEO

EU27 coal import balance – SA/US/AUS

Australia South Africa US

US shale — LNG later?

US once on course for vast imports

Net imports 2005 AEO

New England

Downeast LNG

Quoddy Bay

Calais

Weaver’s Cove

Keyspan

Crown Landing

Blue Ocean

Broadwater

Liberty

Safe Harbor

Florida/Georgia

Port Dolphin

Calypso

Elba Island III

Alabama/Mississippi

Bienville

Compas Point

Casotte Landing

Gulf LNG

Vista del Sol

Ingelside

Port Arthur

Port Lavaca

Corpus Christi

Beacon Point

Louisiana

Creole Train

Cameron II

Main Pass

Gulf Landing

Pearl Crossing

Port Pelican

Maryland

Cove Point II

Sparrows Point

California

Sound Energy

Port Esperanza

Ocean Way

Cabrillo Port

Clearwater Port

Oregon

Bradwood

Oregon LNG

Portwestward

Jordan Cove

1.4bn m³/d of

sendout capacity

Planned or proposed import projects

Net imports 2005 AEO 2008 AEO

US poised for exports

Net imports 2005 AEO 2012 AEO 2013 AEO

US poised for exports

Georgia

Elba Island

Mississippi

Gulf LNG

Gulf Coast

Freeport

Golden Pass

Corpus Christie

Lavaca Bay

Louisiana

Main Pass

Sabine Pass

Lake Charles

Cameron

Maryland

Cove Point

Oregon

Oregon LNG

Jordan Cove

725.3mn m³/d of

liquefaction capacity

Planned or proposed export projects

US LNG — exports, but at what price?

Exporting US shale, but at what price?

Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18

US LNG exports must compete on price

US futures NBP

US futures +15 pc basis NBP

115pc Nymex – commodity cost

US futures +15 pc basis Fixed NBP

+$2.85 fixed cost (margin)

US futures +15 pc basis Fixed Freight NBP

+Freight

US futures +15 pc basis Fixed Freight NBP Breakeven for DE power, free CO2

+Freight

Gas prices and the power sector

Gas prices and the EU power sector

Real 31 May coal

Real 31 May gas

Costs and P/L scenarios 2015

Fuel costs CO2 cost Profit/Loss Power price

Real 31 May coal

Real 31 May gas

CO2 balanced coal

CO2 balanced gas

Implies CO2

price at €48.75/t

At least 10x

higher than

current prices

Real 31 May coal

Real 31 May gas

CO2 balanced coal

CO2 balanced gas

Gas balanced coal

Gas balanced gas

Implies gas price

at €18.30/MWh Implies CO2

price at €48.75/t

At least 10x

higher than

current prices

Global shale resources

Trillion m³ — EIA – April 2011

Global shale resources

erlands

Lithuania

United S

Canada

Maurita

Venezuela

entina

Trilli

Chinese resources estimated to be larger than those of the US

Technically recoverable shale gas resources Trillion m³

China will still require imports

Even at target, shale still insufficient to completely close supply gap

Implied import requirement Shale target

Shale oil — more of the same?

US crude production

Shale drives rebound in US oil output

US crude output

US crude stocks

East Coast (Padd 1)

Midwest (Padd 2)

Cushing Gulf Coast (Padd 3)

Rocky Mountain (Padd 4)

West Coast (Padd 5)

l Crude stocks at or near historic highs

24 May 2013 Observed max

US-North Sea price spreads

28-Jun-2007 28-Jun-2008 28-Jun-2009 28-Jun-2010 28-Jun-2011 28-Jun-2012

WTI v Brent

Brent-WTI

Matthew Monteverde VP — Generating Fuels Argus Media London matthew.monteverde@argusmedia.com +44 207 780 4225

Copyright notice

Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence

from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any

form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus.

Trademark notice

ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, FMB, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit www.argusmedia.com/trademarks for more information.

Disclaimer

All data and other information presented (the “Data”) are provided on an “as is” basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any

particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights...5 June 2013 IFIEC Europe — Brussels...

Documents

The Shale Gas Shock · benefits of shale gas. The lessons to be learned are clear. The environmental costs of shale gas are much smaller than the environmental costs of coal. Because

IFIEC EUROPE – International Federation of Industrial Energy Consumers on behalf of Alliance of Energy Intensive Industries / CEFIC / IFIEC 1 ECCP Meeting,

Water and the shale and tight gas industry€¦ · • Shale and tight gas is not the same as coal seam gas. Coal seam gas often occurs at much shallower depths than shale and tight

Carbon Policy and Effect: An IFIEC Europe Perspective

OF HYDROCRRBON FUELS FROM OIL SHALE COAL AiND PETR..(U

COAL SEAM GAS - The AusIMM · COAL SEAM GAS Some basics in economics, ... Shale gas, hosted in “tight” fine grained shale Coal seam gas, hosted in coal (mostly in black coal)

Central Appalachian Basin Unconventional (Coal/Organic ... › sites › default › files › event... · Central Appalachian Basin Unconventional (Coal/Organic Shale) Reservoir

Choosing the clean path for Fueling · (tar sands oil shale and coal to liquids) threatens to offset the benefits of(tar sands, oil shale, and coal to liquids) threatens to offset

Shale Gas: Research needs from a European perspective...Technology for a better society • Shale gas • Shale oil • Non-shale un-conventionals • Tight gas • Coal bed methane

CSG, Coal and Shale Mining Associated Water Management

PRES2009-xx Shale Gas, Oil Shale, Coal, Potash and MVT in ... · Shale GasShale Gas • From 1941-1953, 4.7 millionm 3 of shale gas produced at Kamsack, S k h (Y k ki 2006)Saskatchewan

2016 World Energy Resources...Coal Bed Methane Shale Gas Unconventional Production (Shale and CBM) - 2030 Domestic Conventional Russia Import Pipeline Shale Gas Potential Fuling field

1 May 2010 Unconventional Gas- Shale gas, tight gas and coal seam gas

Unconventional Gas: Coal Seam Gas, Shale Gas and Tight Gas

Shale Gas vs. Coal - OurEnergyPolicy.org · 2012-05-03 · Shale Gas vs. Coal A comparison of the environmental impacts of shale gas, conventional gas and coal deployment on air,

IFIEC Energy Forum 2014

Central Appalachian Basin Unconventional (Coal/Organic Shale

Rails, Coal, Shale & Beyond

Shale gas and coal bed methane - EY - United · PDF file2 Shale gas and coal bed methane Potential sources of sustained energy in the future Content Introduction

Oil Shale Coal