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Energy, Agriculture and Food Security
Prabhu PingaliDeputy Director, Agriculture Development
Talk to the National Academies Round Table on Science and Technology for Sustainability. Views expressed are personal.
September 24, 2009
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Energy, Agriculture and Food Security
Energy , agriculture & food security are linked by the followingtrends:
Intensification and the structural transformation of the agriculture sector
Rising urban middle class demand for food diversity, convenience and quality – supermarkets & food imports
Declining importance of biomass as fuel
Potential expansion of bio-fuel production
2
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Trends in Food and Oil Prices
Source: Data from WB 2008Source: Data from WB 20083
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Intensification & the structural transformation of the agriculture
Rising population densities and improved market access leads to the intensification of smallholder agriculture systems– rising energy requirements per hectare
Declining share of agriculture in GDP is associated with rising opportunity cost of labor and mechanization and fertilizer use
Demand for post harvest processing, storage and quality rise with economic development
4
India irrigated area by type of irrigation (000 ha)Source: Ministry of Agriculture, http://agricoop.nic.in/statistics/sump2.htm
5
Trend of fertilizer and oil price since 1970
Source: World Bank 2008 6
Rice to fertilizer price ratio trend (1970-2008)
7
World Price of Rice under Baseline and a 3-Fold Fertilizer Price Increase Scenario
Source: IFPRI/IMPACT Model Projections 8
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
From Traditional to Modernizing to Industrialized Food Systems
Consumption: • Traditional – Rising caloric intake, diversification• Modernizing – Diet diversification, shift to processed foods• Industrialized – Higher value & processed foods
Retail:• Traditional – Small scale, wet markets• Modernizing – Spread of supermarkets (limited for FFV)• Industrialized – Widespread supermarkets
Processing:• Traditional – Limited processing sector• Modernizing – Employment and value addition from processing• Industrialized – Large processing sector, domestic and export
Wholesale:• Traditional – Trad. wholesale, retailers bypass traditional system (exports)• Modernizing – Trad. and specialized wholesalers, some retailer bypassing• Industrialized – Specialized wholesalers, private distribution centers
9
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Dietary transition in Asia: an overview
Reduced consumption of rice
Increased consumption of wheat and wheat based products
Rise in high protein and energy dense diets
Increased consumption of temperate zone products
Rising popularity of convenience food and beverages
10
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Rising GDP per capita is associated with a larger share of supermarkets in food retail
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GDP per Capita, PPP, 2002
Shar
e of
Sup
erm
arke
ts in
Foo
d R
etai
l
Source: data from Traill (2006) and World Bank World Development Indicators (2006) 11
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Global expansion of transnational supermarkets, 1980-2001
Source: UK food group 12
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Reliance on biomass for energyFuel wood, manure and other combustible residues are the most significant source of energy in many developing countries—over 90 percent of total primary energy supply for DR Congo, Tanzania, and Ethiopia (IEA 2005)
The gender dimensions are clear:The collection biomass major time burden for womenBurning firewood indoors factor in female and infant mortality
Courtesy of Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) 13
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Hunger and use of biomass as energy
Increasing time poverty
Courtesy of Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) 14
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The biofuels boom
05
10152025303540
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Bill
ion
liter
s
Source: Worldwatch Institute 2006Source: Worldwatch Institute 2006
EthanolEthanol > 90% of biofuel production; > 90% of biofuel production; Brazil and US are 90% of the ethanol Brazil and US are 90% of the ethanol marketmarket
0
1
2
3
4
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005B
illio
n lit
ers
Biodiesel:Biodiesel: EU accounts for 90% EU accounts for 90% of productionof production
World ethanol and bioWorld ethanol and bio--diesel production, 1975diesel production, 1975--20052005
2007
Biofuel Impacts on Prices?Source Estimate Commodity Time period
World Bank (April 2008)
75 % global food index January 2002 – February 2008
IMF (2008?) 70 %40 %
cornsoybeans
??
IFPRI (May 2008) 39 %21-22 %
corn rice & wheat
2000 – 20072000 – 2007
OECD-FAO (May 2008)
42 %34 %24 %
coarse grainsvegetable oilswheat
2008 – 20172008 – 20172008 – 2017
Collins (June 2008) 25-60 %23-35 %
cornUS retail food
2006 – 20082006 – 2008
Glauber (June 2008) 23-31 %10 %4-5 %
commoditiesglobal food indexUS retail food
April 2007 – April 2008April 2007 – April 2008January – April 2008
CEA (May 2008) 35 %3 %
cornglobal food index
March 2007 – March 2008March 2007 – March 2008
Source: FAO 2008Source: FAO 2008
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared to sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared to
the baseline levels (%) the baseline levels (%)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projectionsSource: IFPRI IMPACT projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cassava Maize Oil seeds Sugar Wheat
Pric
e C
hang
es (%
)
Biofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansion
17
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Energy, Agriculture & Food Security: the way forward
Continue focusing on staple crop productivity growth reduces the food-fuel trade-offSeek technology & policy options for enhancing input use efficiencyExploit opportunities for reducing non-renewable energy use (example. Conservation tillage)Invest in novel (de-centralized) renewable energy technologies– small scale solar systems; bio-fuel from biomassIdentify options for energy savings across the value-chain from the farm to the supermarket.
18
Thank You
© 2009 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. All Rights Reserved. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is a registered trademark in the United States and other countries.
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